-- European natural gas futures were up on Friday, after the US and Iran launched attacks against one another, acts which ran counter to this week's optimism that the sides were making progress towards peace, while Iran also attacked the UAE.
Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose 1.91% to 44.39 euros ($52.13) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP contracts gained 2.05% to 109.06 British pence ($1.48) per therm. The Dutch TTF and UK Gas were set to end the week down by 3.21% and 3.25%, respectively, according to data from TradingEconomics.
On Thursday, US Centcom said that it had intercepted "multiple missiles, drones and small boats" launched by the Iranian side, while US forces responded in self defense, as the Navy's guided missile destroyers transited through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters, has said that the country's attacks were "retaliatory" and were in response to US forces violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker, according to a report by state news agency Tasnim News.
On Friday, the UAE's Ministry of Defense confirmed that the country's air defenses had engaged two ballistic missiles and three drones earlier in the day, resulting in some injuries.
This marked a major escalation in hostilities in the region, following several weeks of ceasefire, during which both sides had attempted to work out a deal.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows before the conflict, remained effectively closed for the 10th week running, with just 7 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.
Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist, highlighted the growing disconnect in the markets while speaking to the Washington Report on Thursday. He argued that the system was "structurally impaired, with diminished redundancy and resilience," which the market was yet to price.
According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, worsening shortages in Europe have prompted countries in the region to once again seek out more Russian gas, despite imposing steeper sanctions against Moscow earlier this year.
"The EU imported more Russian Arctic LNG in the first four months of 2026 than in any equivalent period since the Yamal LNG project began exporting in 2017," Hynes said.
This comes as the region steps into gas refilling season with depleted inventory levels at 34.26% of capacity, compared to 41.58% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.