-- US equity investors will focus on mounting geopolitical risk in the Middle East while keeping an eye on Q1 earnings and retail sales.
* Iran vowed retaliation after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, endangering the planned second round of negotiations in Pakistan this week to find a lasting solution for peace for Tehran, according to multiple media reports.
* US Vice President JD Vance and top US officials were expected to travel to Islamabad, but Iran's foreign ministry insisted there were no plans for talks, CNN reported. The ceasefire, which the US and Iran have accused each other of violating, expires on Wednesday.
* After scaling fresh records on Friday amid optimism that an Iran peace deal could materialize without extending the two-week ceasefire, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slumped early on Monday amid concerns of an escalation of the war in the Middle East.
* West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures soared 7.2% to $89.92, and Brent crude futures jumped 6.3% to $96.10 pre-bell. Reflecting the potential impact of elevated crude oil prices on inflation, gold futures dropped 1.5% to $4,808.8, and silver futures slumped 3% to $79.37 early Monday. Similarly, most US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year up 2.2 basis points to 4.27% and the two-year jumped 3.5 basis points to 3.74%.
* The highlight of quarterly earnings this week will be Tesla (TSLA) as well as some technology names such as Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), and SAP (SAP). Other mega-caps expected to report this week include American Express (AXP), GE Vernova (GEV), Boeing (BA), and United Health (UNH).
* In US macroeconomic data, investors will focus on retail sales, S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, and the final read on Michigan consumer sentiment alongside Michigan inflation expectations for one and five years ahead.