-- Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:
-- Brent spikes to US$126.4/barrel, US dollar (USD) bid. 10-year United States Treasury up to 4.43%, German Bund 3.12%, Japanese government bond crosses 2.50%. U.S. Centcom considering military options to break deadlock in Iran war (Axios). Iran could present a revised peace proposal by Friday, won't tolerate blockade extension, urges citizens to reduce consumption. USD/JPY in intervention territory above 160.50.
-- Federal Reserve on hold at 3.50%-3.75%, 8-4 split, OIS pricing +10bps by March 2027. Powell to stay on as Fed governor after May 15, when he ends his position as chair. Miran voted for a 25bps cut. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan voted against the inclusion of easing bias in the statement.
-- France Q1 gross domestic product flat quarter over quarter, below 0.2% forecast, April HICP accelerates to 2.5% year over year in April from 2.0% in March. The consumer price index rose to 2.2% from 1.7%. Services 1.9% (+0.2pp), manufacturing goods -0.6% (-0.1pp), energy 14.2% (+6.8pp), food 1.3% (-0.5pp).
-- China manufacturing PMI stays in expansion in April, dips to 50.3 from 50.4 in March. Non-mfg falls to 49.4 from 50.1.
-- Day ahead: European Central Bank and Bank of England forecast to keep rates on hold. U.S. Q1 GDP first estimate and PCE, weekly jobless claims. Eurozone flash CPI and Q2 GDP first estimate. Colombia's central bank forecast to hike by 50bps. Poland's CPI.
-- Nikkei -1.1%, EUR 10-year IRS +1bp at 3.15%, Brent crude 4.4% at US$123.2/barrel, Gold +1.0% at US$4,590/oz.