-- Planet Fitness (PLNT) is heading into its Q1 earnings report under pressure, amid weaker membership trends, macro uncertainty and an ongoing leadership transition, RBC Capital Markets said in a report emailed Wednesday.
RBC said it expects Q1 net member additions to come in at about 680,000, below the 790,000 consensus, citing "click-to-cancel" churn and soft app download data. Same-store sales are also expected to miss earlier estimates, though revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization are likely to come in largely in line due to equipment-related upside, RBC said.
Uncertainty remains elevated due to the lack of a permanent chief financial officer and potential 2026 guidance cuts amid weaker consumer sentiment, with macro volatility and extended promotions signaling a soft start to the year and possibly delaying the planned Black Card membership price increase to $30 from $25, the report said.
Despite near-term headwinds, RBC said it remains constructive on Planet Fitness' longer-term outlook, citing its highly franchised model and stable revenue streams. The firm forecasts earnings per share growth of about 16% in 2025 and 18% in 2026, supported by pricing actions and continued unit expansion, according to the report.
RBC has an outperform rating on Planet Fitness and lowered its price target to $85 from $120, adding that investor sentiment around the stock remains "negative," with risk-reward seen as "slightly unfavorable" heading into the print.
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