-- Three Federal Reserve officials who wanted language changes in the April monetary policy statement said Friday that risks to inflation and employment didn't warrant an inclusion of the so-called easing bias.
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark lending rate steady on Wednesday, saying the Middle East conflict is fueling uncertainty around the US economic outlook.
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the FOMC said Wednesday.
That language is widely interpreted to indicate a bias toward future rate cuts.
Regional presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas supported the policy decision, but opposed including an easing bias in the statement. Fed Governor Stephen Miran favored an interest rate reduction. The ratio of dissents reached the highest since 1992, Stifel said Thursday.
Hammack said in a statement that the easing bias is no longer appropriate as "uncertainty around the economic outlook is elevated, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth and employment."
Kashkari separately said that financial markets seem to assume a "fairly quick" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even in such a scenario, forecasters expect core personal consumption expenditures inflation to reach 3% this year, compared to an expectation of 2.7% as of January, he said.
That would put downward pressure on consumer spending and potentially pressure the US labor market, Kashkari said.
An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive a larger price shock, driving up both inflation and unemployment in the US, Kashkari said.
"Given the uncertainty about the path of the conflict and the resulting effects on inflation, employment and economic growth, I believe the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves," Kashkari said.
Logan said she is "increasingly concerned" about about how long it will take before inflation hits the official 2% target. "The conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures," Logan said.
The labor market, which has been stable, could strengthen or weaken due to a range of factors, she added.
"In light of the two-sided risks to monetary policy, I believed the FOMC should not give forward guidance implying a bias toward rate cuts at this time," she said.