-- Crude oil has been the focus for many amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the shortage is particularly acute for refined oil products, and especially for jet fuel, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.
Warnings have been growing about the shortage, mainly from the Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association to the European economy, the bank noted.
The International Energy Agency has examined the European jet fuel market and found an extremely tight picture. Jet fuel demand in European OECD countries stood at 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, with 1.1 million barrels per day met by domestic production.
About 75% of the resulting net import requirement was met by the Gulf region, which is currently strained due to the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The IEA also pointed to a significant drop in jet fuel stock levels. With the loss of supplies from the Middle East and without adequate replacement, stocks are at risk of falling further, particularly as demand is set to rise in the coming months, the bank said.
The EU plans to present a draft proposal on Wednesday to address the jet fuel shortage and prevent impending restrictions on air travel. An EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products is expected to be introduced next month, the bank noted, citing Reuters.
Measures will also be introduced to ensure the full utilization and maintenance of refining capacity. However, as many refineries are already operating at full capacity, the measures are likely to have a limited impact, Commerzbank said.