-- Italian energy giant Eni (E) revised its 2026 gas and oil price forecasts on Friday, warning that the global energy market is significantly underestimating the long-term impact of the ongoing conflict.
The company now projects Brent crude at $83 per barrel, up from its previous $70 estimate, and has hiked Dutch TTF gas expectations to 50 Euro per megawatt hour from 36 euro.
Eni's Chief Transition and Financial Officer Francesco Gattei cautioned during the quarterly earnings call that the crisis extends beyond a simple ceasefire. The destruction of critical infrastructure and production facilities by fire and bombing will require a much longer recovery period than the market currently anticipates, according to a transcript of the call available on FactSet.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows has already triggered a 24% quarter-on-quarter surge in Brent prices.
While these elevated prices have bolstered Eni's upstream operations, the conflict has concurrently pressured refining margins due to reduced utilization rates, it said.