-- Cheesecake Factory's (CAKE) fiscal first-quarter same-store sales could exceed Wall Street's views as its core customer remains relatively shielded from broader economic headwinds, Oppenheimer said Tuesday.
The brokerage expects the restaurant chain's comparable sales for the quarter to increase 1%, higher than the Street's 0.6% growth estimates. Oppenheimer projects earnings at $1.01 a share, while the Street is looking for $1, according to a note to clients.
Cheesecake Factory is scheduled to report results April 29.
The company's core customer continues to be "insulated from macro pressures" that are impacting the broader industry, Oppenheimer analysts Brian Bittner and Michael Tamas said. "Middle-to-upper income households also show less sensitivity to inflation volatility (i.e. gas prices), and are well-positioned to capture a greater share of tax refund increases."
Oppenheimer raised its price target on the Cheesecake Factory stock to $72 from $68, with an outperform rating.
The company's shares were down 0.2% in Tuesday late-afternoon trade. So far this year, the stock has gained 22% in value, representing "best-in-class" among its full-service dining peers, Oppenheimer said.
Broad-based inflation concerns have grown in the wake of a surge in energy prices amid the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israel war with Iran that started at the end of February.
For the ongoing quarter, Cheesecake Factory's same-store sales outlook is positioned to "at least capture" the Street's 0.7% growth views, which Oppenheimer said is similar to the first-quarter estimates despite potentially fewer weather-related challenges.
"We've identified an intriguing setup against consensus in (2026) where (same-store sales) and EPS forecasts now tilt conservatively, based on our work," Bittner and Tamas said. "(Cheesecake Factory's) unique exposure to a steadier consumer could provide sharpened control of the financial model."
For 2026, the risk/reward "skews favorably" against the Street's comparable sales growth outlook of 1.1%, the analysts said. Oppenheimer is projecting a 1.4% increase for the metric. The brokerage raised its EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, according to the note.
Price: $61.63, Change: $-0.51, Percent Change: -0.82%