-- The Bank of England held its key rate steady at 3.75% and reiterated its readiness to act as the ongoing war in the Middle East pushes up energy costs and creates upside risks for inflation.
The UK central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of a hold, with lone dissenter Chief Economist Huw Pill voting for a 25 basis-point increase to 4%, citing the "clear upward shift in risks" to achieving the BoE's 2% inflation target, according to a Thursday release. At its previous meeting in March, the committee voted unanimously to leave the bank rate unchanged.
Based on the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, the country's annual inflation rate climbed to 3.3% in March from the previous month's 3%, with the core rate, which excludes energy prices, edging down to 3.1% from 3.2%.
The BoE expects inflation to come in higher later in 2026 on the back of soaring energy prices, with "material" second-round effects posing a risk in price- and wage-setting. Specifically, the headline inflation rate is currently expected by BoE staff to decline to an average of 3.1% in the second quarter before picking up to 3.3% in the third quarter.
Given the high uncertainty around global energy prices and the potential impact on domestic inflation, the BoE set out three scenarios to determine how the war could affect the UK economy. In the worst-case Scenario C, the bank rate increases to 5.25% by the first quarter of 2027 on expectations that inflation would peak at 6.2% and remains largely above target.
"If the shock appears to be short-lived or the economy weaker, policy should place relatively more weight on avoiding unnecessary contraction in activity. If second-round effects are likely to be greater, policy should focus on returning inflation back to target more quickly," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said.
The MPC said it will closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and that it stands ready to implement the necessary measures to ensure that inflation remains on course to meet the BoE's 2% target over the medium term.