-- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is now expected to consecutively increase the official cash rate three times by 25 basis points in July, September, and October, taking the policy rate to 3%, according to a Monday report by ANZ Research.
The central bank is likely to decide that the risks of conducting rate hikes later outweigh the risks of increasing too soon as long as the official cash rate is not considered contractionary.
The analysts noted that it was possible the subsequent monetary policy decision could be a rate cut, or that the official cash rate "doesn't even make it as far as 3%."
The outlook for oil prices and fuel supply is highly uncertain; meanwhile, the impact on medium-term inflation is ambiguous. Both the demand and the supply side of the economy are in flux.