-- Everything is rallying in financial markets on Wednesday except for commodities after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, said Scotiabank.
Position covering may be amplifying the swings and driving somewhat of an overreaction, pointed out the bank.
Oil prices are volatile but sharply lower by double-digit percentages, although the futures curve remains elevated at sustainably higher prices throughout 2026-27 than the spot prices back at the start of the year, noted the bank.
That clearly signals market concern toward a) the possible fragility of the ceasefire amid uncertain negotiations, and b) the longer-term damage to geopolitical risk premiums and infrastructure, stated Scotiabank.
Stocks are broadly higher with North America futures up by about 2% to 3%, European stocks are up by 3% to 5%, and Asia-Pacific benchmarks rallied by 3% to 7% across the main benchmarks.
Sovereign bond yields are broadly lower with eurozone government bonds outperforming via declines of 20bps-30bps across maturities and countries, while U.S. Treasuries are rallying by 'just' 5bps-7bps, and Canadian government bonds are dearer by 10bps at the front end in a bull steepener, added Scotiabank.
The US dollar (USD) is broadly weaker, although the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is slightly underperforming other crosses due to lower oil, according to the bank.