-- A total of 12% of global oil volumes are offline as of Apr. 10, as attacks on regional oil and gas infrastructure continued even after the ceasefire, Stephen Gordon, managing director at Clarksons Research, told.
Stalled US-Iran talks over the weekend have resulted in a US blockade of vessels heading to and from Iranian ports, effective from 10 a.m. ET Monday. This has injected fresh uncertainty into a strait where tanker traffic has remained a fraction of pre-conflict levels.
Strait of Hormuz transits registered a "small-scale increase" in recent days with 16 transits recorded on Sunday, bringing the post-ceasefire average to 13 per day, Gordon said. This is up from the daily average of 11 in the week before the ceasefire and seven in March.
That compares with around 125 tanker transits per day pre-conflict, according to Clarkson's Research data.
Sunday also saw nine westbound transits, representing vessels entering the Gulf, the highest daily inbound total since the conflict began. These transits accounted for 56% of the day's traffic, compared with a March average of 35%, according to the data.
Sunday's transits included two inbound crude tankers, one of them en route to load in Iraq and a Pakistan-linked Aframax crude carrier. Also in the traffic were two product tankers, six bulk carriers, three feeder containerships, two chemical tankers, and a liquefied petroleum gas carrier.
On Saturday, three very large crude carriers exited the Gulf carrying about 6 million barrels of Iraqi and Saudi crude, with a total cargo value of about $750 million. That compares with roughly 2 million barrels and $190 million on a typical day in March, and 15 million barrels and $1.05 billion on a typical day in 2025.
Shipowners remain reluctant to transit the strait. "Crude tankers in the Gulf recorded as traveling at a steaming speed 8% of the time over the past three days [as of April 10], up from 4% across the past month but still well down from 32% across Jan-Feb with most owners reportedly still reluctant to transit," Gordon said.
Gordon highlighted how strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, such as the East-West pipeline, have prompted importers to seek alternative barrels.
"The 'scramble' to source alternative supplies continues, with Yanbu crude loadings easing slightly to 4 million barrels per day... while US crude exports are poised to exceed 5 [mmbbl/d] in the coming weeks," Gordon said.
The East-West pipeline has been restored to a maximum capacity of 7 mmbbl/d over the weekend, with crude loadings out of Yanbu estimated to have averaged 4 mmbbl/d across the past week, up by about 3 mmbbl/d since the start of March, according to Clarksons Research data.
Gordon noted the potential for further strategic stock releases in the coming weeks if Hormuz traffic remains limited, with Japan announcing a second draw on Friday.
"While the Japanese release is likely to be used domestically, draws of US oil would likely result in further long-haul tanker demand," he said.
Additionally, the cost of moving a barrel of crude has eased slightly in the past few days, but remains "very elevated," Gordon said.
On Iran's decision to impose a $2 million transit fee on VLCCs, Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, explained that VLCCs typically carry about 2 million barrels of crude oil, making this effectively a $1 per barrel fee, which Sand described as "insignificant" relative to overall crude price volatility.
Sand expressed skepticism about whether the US Development Finance Corp.'s reinsurance program would meaningfully restore Hormuz traffic. "The problem is that the threat is real right now as the war rages on. It's not 'just' a war risk cover anymore," he said, adding that the framework makes no real-world difference under current circumstances.
The Iranian transit fees are illegal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, also known as UNCLOS, and no ship operator is likely to pay them, Sand toldin an emailed response.
Cormac McGarry, director of maritime security at Control Risks, said shipowners' hesitation goes beyond financial calculation.
"Plenty of them [shipowners] would happily sacrifice $2 million to get a ship out of the Gulf right now, but very few are willing to pay that to Iran because the fear of sanctions enforcement is greater," McGarry said.
Both analysts were dismissive of the US Development Corp. reinsurance program as a solution.
The US DFC has been empowered to cover $40 billion in maritime reinsurance on a rolling basis. Earlier this month, alongside Chubb (CB) as lead underwriter, the DFC announced additional underwriters, including Travelers (TRV) and Berkshire Hathaway (BKR.A), among others.
"The DFC plan is not really filling any gap at all and seems to fundamentally misunderstand the marine war risk market," McGarry said.
"We are way beyond that," Sand said, adding that the DFC makes no real-world difference under current circumstances.
Before the conflict, 20% of global oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, Gordon said. This figure includes 37% of seaborne crude oil trade and 19% of seaborne products trade.
A total of 19% of global LNG trade, representing about 3% of global natural gas supply, also passed through the Strait, alongside 28% of global LPG volumes, which account for about 10% of supply.
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