Commodities
Canadian E&Ps Eye Buybacks, Debt Cuts as Q1 Cash Flow Rises 11%, RBC Says
Canadian exploration and production firms are set for a strong Q1 with cash flow per share up about 11% and free cash flow reaching roughly $1.1 billion, RBC Capital Markets said Monday.The earnings season begins Apr. 20 with PrairieSky Royalty reporting, as analysts focus on how companies deploy rising free cash flows amid stronger crude pricing, the note said.Near-term priorities are expected to center on share buybacks and debt reduction, while capital spending could increase later in the year if commodity prices remain supportive, according to the note.RBC said natural gas prices at Alberta Energy Company rebounded temporarily during the quarter but have since softened, as supply remained ample despite rising demand tied to LNG Canada.RBC's estimates currently sit above FactSet consensus, though differences are likely to narrow as analysts adjust forecasts to reflect updated commodity pricing, the report said.Cash flow per share is projected to rise about 11% over the quarter, supported by stronger oil prices alongside operational and company-specific factors, the note said.RBC said Q1 cash flow per share is seen rising about 9.6% to 11.2% over the quarter, with year-over-year changes ranging from a 5.3% decline to a 5.8% increase.Free cash flow for the quarter is estimated at about $1.15 billion, split between roughly $458 million from oil-focused firms and $688 million from gas-weighted producers, the report said.Producers are trading at about 4.8x and 4.4x 2026 and 2027 enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow, respectively, or 5.1x and 4.8x based on strip pricing, RBC said.Public filings indicate roughly $215 million in Q1 buybacks across the group, led by ARC Resources at about $135 million and Tourmaline at about $72 million, the note added.Production is projected to grow about 8% in 2026, with combined output across covered companies expected to increase 8% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, including merger-related impacts, RBC said.All companies are forecast to expand volumes, with top gains from Kelt Exploration at 26%, Paramount Resources at 21%, and Arc Resources at 10%, while further upside is possible if commodity prices remain strong.Spending is projected at $9.7 billion in 2026, generating about $8.2 billion in free cash flow, or $7.3 billion on strip pricing, RBC said.For 2027, spending is estimated at $10.9 billion, producing roughly $7.5 billion in free cash flow, or $6.4 billion on strip, with about 44% of 2026 free cash flow allocated to dividends, according to the note.