IEA Forecasts Global Demand to Contract by 80,000 bpd Due to Iran War
In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that the Iran war has fundamentally upended the global energy outlook, with oil demand now expected to contract by 80,000 barrels per day this year.Cumulative supply losses have reached 360 million barrels in March and are expected to hit 440 million barrels in April, driven by production curtailments and widespread infrastructure damage, the IEA said.The agency confirmed that the overall drain on global oil exports has now surpassed 13 mb/d.According to the IEA, global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March due to attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz in what is seen as the largest energy sector disruption in history.The agency said global crude throughput at refineries has also been curtailed with feedstock shortages and infrastructure damage, which the IEA warns is severely tightening global product markets.In a detailed breakdown of downstream impacts, the IEA reported that Middle East and feedstock-constrained Asian refineries cut runs by about 6 mb/d in April, bringing total throughput down to 77.2 mb/d.Regarding global stockpiles, the IEA noted that oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March, though this figure includes a massive 205 million barrel drawdown in stocks located outside of the Middle East Gulf.Simultaneously, the IEA added that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused Middle Eastern floating storage volumes to rise by 100 million barrels, while the agency confirmed onshore regional crude stocks rose by 20 million barrels.