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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Oil Hits New Highs Amid Middle East Uncertainty

Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher on Tuesday, as soybean oil futures reached a new high amid uncertainty in the Middle East peace talks.The Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures contract closed 0.75% higher at $11.74 per bushel, and the CBOT May soybean oil futures contract settled 3.60% higher at 72.14 cents per pound.On Monday, the May ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 0.26% higher at $1.90 per gallon.Energy markets were moderately higher as US and Iranian officials are reportedly set to meet in Pakistan on Tuesday.Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said that soybeans led the way higher, primarily borrowing strength from the soybean oil market.Montgomery said that firm crude oil and diesel futures certainly played a role, along with continued trend-based buying as traders remain very bullish on soybean oil demand prospects in light of last month's bullish Environmental Protection Agency mandates."The state of negotiations in the Middle East and subsequent status of trade through the Strait of Hormuz continues to cast a large shadow over the soybean market (and markets in general)," Montgomery stated in a daily note.

Oil & Energy153d ago

Small Iran-Linked LPG Tanker Tests US Blockade in Arabian Sea, Bloomberg Analysis Says

A small 7,000-cubic-meter tanker linked to Iran tested a US blockade on Tuesday, marking the furthest-reaching Arabian Sea movement since restrictions began on April 13, according to a Bloomberg analysis.Tracking data showed the LPG tanker G Summer broadcast a message from the Arabian Sea on Tuesday indicating it was crewed entirely by Chinese nationals.According to Kpler's data, the vessel's most recent cargo originated from Iran, suggesting the ship is transporting fuel tied to the Islamic Republic, the analysis said.The US imposed a sweeping blockade on April 13, covering Iranian ports, the Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea, significantly restricting maritime activity.While some Iran-linked vessels have entered the Persian Gulf since then, none have ventured as far into the Arabian Sea as the G Summer, according to the analysis.The tanker, which is under US sanctions, is currently signaling Galle, Sri Lanka, as its destination, a common waypoint for ships heading toward East Asia, according to the analysis.US forces intercepted an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday, the first seizure since the blockade was imposed, and have since compelled at least 27 vessels to reverse course or dock back at Iranian ports.The G Summer has a capacity of about 7,000 cubic meters, significantly smaller than typical liquefied petroleum gas cargoes of around 80,000 cubic meters, according to the analysis.Tracking data suggest the vessel made a rapid turnaround near waters south of Iraq, an area known for ship-to-ship transfers involving Iranian cargo, the analysis said.Ownership details remain unclear, with no listed contact information for the vessel's managing company, while its tracking signals may also be manipulated, according to the analysis.

Oil & Energy153d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Rally as Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire Extension

Crude oil futures rallied in midday trading on Tuesday after President Trump said Iran violated the two-week ceasefire numerous times and he did not want to extend the soon-to-expire truce as the US military is preparing for action if the negotiations fail.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped by 2.89% to $92.20 per barrel, while Brent futures rose 3.03% to $98.26/bbl.Dan Bunkering strategists said in a note on Tuesday that the crude market has been heavily driven by news flow, and this is expected to remain the case in the coming week.US Vice President J D Vance's planned trip to Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, for peace talks with Iran to end the Middle East conflict has reportedly been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to US negotiating positions."Formal response from Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited," Pakistan's information minister, Attaullah Tarar, said in a post on X. "Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue".Trump ruled out extending the soon-to-expire ceasefire, stoking fears of a direct military escalation and renewed disruptions to global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian officials, including the Speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have not publicly committed to participating in the talks. "We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threat, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield," Ghalibaf said in a social media post on X.The Department of War, previously the Department of Defense, also said the US forces stopped and boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in its campaign to disrupt Iran's shipping network."US forces have boarded the crude oil tanker Tifani in the Indian Ocean, in what appears to be a further escalation in enforcement against Iran-linked shipping," MarineTraffic said in a social media post on X.The shipping data firm said the 330-meter VLCC was reportedly carrying around 2 million barrels of crude loaded at Kharg Island earlier in April.Three vessels, two cargo ships and a fuel tanker, crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday as US and Iranian blockades remained in place, according to media reports.Saxo Bank strategists said on Tuesday that the limited number of vessels that have managed to transit the Hormuz has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies.Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during a testimony before a Senate panel on Tuesday that US gasoline prices likely peaked last week.

Oil & Energy153d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Jumps After Trump Reportedly Says Iran Ceasefire Will Not Be Extended

EMEA crude futures climbed in after-hours trading on Tuesday after President Trump ruled out extending a two-week ceasefire with Iran, stoking fears of a direct military escalation in the Middle East and renewed disruptions to global energy flows.Brent crude futures climbed by 4.93% to $94.03 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 2.40% to $95.27/bbl.ING strategists said Trump has suggested he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire, and a lack of progress would likely push oil and gas prices higher.The two-week truce between the US and Iran is set to expire soon, and there is still no clarity on whether a second round of talks will take place. Trump reportedly warned that the US military would obliterate Iran's enriched uranium reserves.Though a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to hold talks in Islamabad, Iranian officials have signaled they may not attend. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X that Tehran would not negotiate "under the shadow of threats".Meanwhile, Pakistan, which brokered the first round of talks, said there was still no confirmation that Iran would attend peace talks with Washington, after the US boarded a huge Iranian oil tanker at sea with just a day left to the ceasefire."Formal response from Iranian side about confirmation of delegation to attend Islamabad Peace Talks is still awaited," Pakistan's information minister, Attaullah Tarar, said in a post on X. "Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue."The Department of War, previously the Department of Defense, said the US forces stopped and boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in its campaign to disrupt Iran's shipping network.US forces have boarded the crude oil tanker Tifani in the Indian Ocean, in what appears to be a further escalation in enforcement against Iran-linked shipping, MarineTraffic said in a social media post on X, citing media reports.The shipping data firm said the 330-meter VLCC was reportedly carrying about 2 million barrels of crude loaded at Kharg Island earlier in April.Three vessels, two cargo ships and a fuel tanker, crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday as US and Iranian blockades remained in place, according to media reports."The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities," Saxo Bank strategists said on Tuesday.On the supply side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that Kyiv had completed repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline and it is ready to pump Russian oil to Europe. However, Russia is reportedly set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1.

Oil & Energy153d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise on Uncertainty Surrounding US-Iran Peace Negotiations

US natural gas futures rose in midday trading on Tuesday as the Middle East ceasefire deadline approaches, even as the conditions for the US-Iran peace talks are yet to be settled.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both gained 0.15% to $2.69 per million British thermal units.US-Iran ceasefire talks are increasingly uncertain as a two-week truce nears expiration. Iran says it hasn't decided whether to participate, while US Vice President J D Vance reportedly stayed in Washington instead of traveling to lead talks in Pakistan.Both sides have warned they are ready to resume fighting if no deal is reached.Earlier in the day, prices remained confined to a tight range below the opening price amid ample supply, before prices lifted amid doubts about the proposed talks in Islamabad.The Wall Street Journal said Bank of America trimmed its Henry Hub price forecast for the remainder of the year by $0.20 to $3.40/MMBtu on plentiful supplies, adding that analysts there said while supply can tighten during extreme cold events, ample capacity during summer months generally reduces the risk of sharp price spikes, even during heat waves.The US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that the fundamentals showed a relatively comfortable supply backdrop heading into the April-October injection season.Working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states is estimated at about 1,890 billion cubic feet at the start of the refill period. That is roughly 3% above both last year's level and the five-year average, indicating a modest cushion as injections begin.Dry gas production remained slightly below record highs, though output eased slightly late in the week, offering limited support to prices, according to NRG Energy.It said in line with overall softness in the market, regional cash prices in parts of Texas and the western US turned extremely weak at times, even printing negative levels in some areas, reflecting localized oversupply and strong renewable generation amid mild weather conditions.LNG exports provided a key counterbalance to weak domestic consumption, with feedgas flows holding near record levels of around 18.9 billion cubic feet per day. That steady export demand helped prevent a sharper price decline, NRG said.

Oil & Energy153d ago

EU Foregin Policy Chief Warns of Strait of Hormuz Risks, Urges Action to Protect Energy Flows

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned Tuesday that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could carry major economic costs, urging action to ensure uninterrupted energy shipments.Kaja Kallas delivered the remarks following a Foreign Affairs Council meeting, where European Union foreign ministers held discussions.Kallas said the Middle East is at a critical juncture, where ceasefires remain in place but risk collapsing without timely diplomatic engagement.She warned that a return to hostilities could have severe consequences for all parties, stressing the urgency of continuing negotiations to preserve regional stability.The ministers reaffirmed that freedom of navigation remains essential, criticized repeated uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and called for uninterrupted transit without additional costs.Kallas said the European Union's ASPIDES naval mission is key to safeguarding regional shipping routes, urging member states to allocate additional resources to strengthen maritime security efforts.The bloc has also agreed politically to expand sanctions on Iran, targeting individuals and entities responsible for violations of navigation rights, in addition to existing restrictive measures, she said.Kallas reiterated that the European Union opposes Iran developing nuclear weapons, aligning with Gulf partners, while stressing any durable deal must also address missile programs and regional activities.Lebanon continues to bear significant fallout from the conflict, with Prime Minister Salam outlining efforts to advance peace talks with Israel and reduce Hezbollah's influence, she added.

Oil & Energy153d ago

Pakistan Pushes US-Iran Diplomacy as Ceasefire Nears End, Iran Stance Uncertain

Pakistan on Tuesday pushed for diplomacy between the US and Iran as the ceasefire expiry nears, while participation from Iran remains uncertain amid the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.US Charge d'Affaires Natalie Baker met Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar on Tuesday to review regional developments, with both sides stressing continued diplomatic engagement, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in an X post.Dar called on the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and prioritize negotiations, encouraging both sides to give diplomacy a chance, according to the ministry's statement.He reiterated Pakistan's stance that dialogue remains the only workable path to lasting peace, urging efforts to avoid escalation and maintain regional stability, the ministry said.The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on Wednesday, with both sides expected to weigh next steps amid rising tensions and fragile diplomatic signals.A delegation comprising US Vice President JD Vance, along with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, is expected to represent Washington in a second round of talks scheduled in Islamabad, according to media reports.Iran's participation remains uncertain, with officials saying negotiations will not proceed while the US maintains a naval blockade, and calling a recent vessel seizure a violation of the ceasefire, according to multiple media reports.Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported Tuesday that Iran's decision not to participate in the second round of peace negotiations remains unchanged.Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Tuesday that they are still awaiting Iran's confirmation on attending the Islamabad peace talks as the ceasefire deadline approaches.Tarar added, "Pakistan as the mediator is in constant touch with Iranians and pursuing the path of diplomacy and dialogue."Highlighting the urgency ahead of the ceasefire expiry, Tarar said, "Ceasefire ends at 4.50 am PST, 22 April. Decision from Iran to attend the talks before the end of two weeks ceasefire is critical."Meanwhile, in several posts on Truth Social on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said that recent US strikes had destroyed Iran's nuclear-related sites, claiming debris remains inaccessible and rejecting criticism from political opponents and media outlets.In another post, Trump said, "operation Midnight Hammer, which totally obliterated the nuclear dust locations to the point where... Iran has been unable to get to it, or dig it out."He added that US Space Force systems are monitoring the targeted locations, asserting Iran cannot recover materials from the impacted facilities.Trump also urged Iranian leaders to release eight detained women, calling it a goodwill step that could positively influence upcoming negotiations, he said on Truth Social.In an earlier post, Trump said, "Iran has violated the cease fire numerous times!"In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Trump reportedly said that the US is "going to end up with a great deal" with Iran, adding that he did not expect a ceasefire extension.On an expected outcome to the second round of negotiations with Iran, Trump reportedly said, "I think they have no choice."The US Central Command in a post on X on Tuesday provided an update to the maritime blockade on Iranian vessels and ports, saying that US forces have directed a total of 28 vessels to turn around or return to port.Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent up 2.6% to $97.96/bbl, WTI up 4.34% to $93.50/bbl, and Murban up 2.4% to $95.27/bbl, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Oil & Energy153d ago

Global Clean Power Surge Halts Fossil Growth in 2025, Renewables Overtake Coal, Ember Says

The expansion in solar energy helped halt the growth of fossil-fuel power for the first time in five years, marking a structural turning point in the global energy system as renewables overtook coal, Ember said in a report on Tuesday.Ember said in its Global Electricity Review 2026 that renewable energy sources generated an additional 887 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2025, outpacing demand growth of 849 TWh.The expansion dwarfed fossil fuel generation, which fell by 38 TWh for the first time since 2020, outside of an economic crisis.Ember said solar power accounted for three-quarters of the increase in global electricity demand, with output rising by a record 636 TWh, or 30% year-on-year, to 2.8 TWh. Together with wind energy, solar energy met 99% of new demand, Ember said.The energy think tank also said renewables overtook coal for the first time in the modern era. Renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and hydropower, made up 33.8% of global electricity generation last year, surpassing coal's 33% share."Clean energy is now scaling fast enough to absorb rising global electricity demand," said Aditya Lolla, managing director at Ember, adding that the shift marks the beginning of a structural decline in fossil fuel use in the power sector.China and India, the world's largest and third-largest fossil power generators, respectively, were key to the global shift. The two countries recorded declines in fossil generation in 2025, driven by record additions of solar and other renewables that outpaced demand growth.China accounted for more than half of global solar expansion, pushing the share of wind and solar in its power mix to 22%, above the OECD average.India also saw renewable generation growth double its previous record and installed more solar capacity than the US for the first time, according to Ember.Meanwhile, the growth of solar is being supported by battery storage, which extends the availability of renewable energy beyond daylight hours. Battery costs fell for a second consecutive year, dropping 45% in 2025 after a 20% decline in 2024, while global deployment rose 46% to about 250 gigawatt-hours.Ember said this enabled about 14% of new solar generation to be shifted from midday to other times of the day, improving grid flexibility and reducing reliance on fossil fuels during peak demand periods.Countries such as Chile and Australia are leading in battery adoption, installing enough storage to shift more than half of their new solar output, resulting in lower power prices and reduced energy waste.However, the expansion in renewables comes amid heightened volatility in global fossil fuel markets following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Ember said the events have exposed the risks of dependence on imported fossil fuels and underscored the economic and energy security benefits of domestic renewable power.

Oil & Energy153d ago

Halliburton Q1 Results Hit by Weaker North America Activity

Oil and gas engineering services provider Halliburton (HAL) said Tuesday that completion and production revenue in Q1 2026 fell 3% or $104 million to $3 billion over the year, while operating income dropped 17% to $439 million.The company said lower stimulation activity in North America, reduced completion tool sales and decreased pressure pumping services had a negative effect on Q1 revenues.Those influences were partly offset by higher completion tool sales in the Western Hemisphere and increased pressure pumping services in Africa.Drilling and evaluation revenue rose 4% or $89 million over the year to $2.4 billion, while operating income was flat at $351 million.Results were positively influenced by higher project management activity in Latin America and higher demand for drilling-related services in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.However, these gains were partially offset by lower activity in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with reduced wireline activity in the Eastern Hemisphere and a decline in fluid services in the Gulf of Mexico, the company said.Middle East/Asia revenue in Q1 2026 declined 13% to $1.3 billion over the year.The Iran conflict also impacted drilling and evaluation. "In the first quarter of 2026, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East affected both divisions, with an impact of approximately 2 to 3 cents of net income per diluted share," according to the statement.Price: $38.22, Change: $+1.55, Percent Change: +4.23%

$HAL

Oil & Energy153d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Drop Ahead of US-Iran Negotiations in Pakistan

US natural gas futures were down on Tuesday ahead of the second round of peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan, as the two-week ceasefire is set to expire.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous benchmark both dropped 0.21% to $2.82 per million British thermal units.US Vice President JD Vance is headed to Islamabad, Pakistan, leading the US delegation during the second round of negotiations with Iran on Tuesday.Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has also authorized the country's top negotiators to participate in the talks, after initially being reluctant, according to a report by Axios.The markets remain optimistic about a favorable outcome from the second round of negotiations, after US President Donald Trump said it was "highly unlikely" that the ceasefire, set to expire on Wednesday, would be extended during an interview with Bloomberg on Monday.Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG export facility in Texas received its first tanker on Monday, adding to the country's LNG export capacity, which had been operating at full capacity for the past several weeks.Weather forecasts continued to turn bullish, with large parts of the Central and Eastern US expected to see below-normal temperatures from April 28 to May 4, according to the National Weather Service.

Oil & Energy153d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Prices Ease Amid Hopes of Potential US-Iran Talks

Crude prices slipped on Tuesday as markets weighed the possibility of US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad against a looming Wednesday ceasefire deadline.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.6% to $89.08 per barrel, while Brent futures fell 0.7% to $94.78/bbl."Oil prices slipped after a relatively quiet, range-bound Monday, with softer price action today driven by news that Iran may attend negotiations but only if the US blockade is being lifted," Saxo Bank analysts said.However, with President Donald Trump ruling out a ceasefire extension beyond Wednesday evening, oil prices remain trapped between hope for a deal and the threat of renewed escalation.Trump reportedly stated it is highly unlikely he will extend the ceasefire without a signed deal, reiterating that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in force until Iran agrees to a final settlement.As of Tuesday morning, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited."The limited number of vessels managing to transit has done little to ease the ongoing tightening of the global energy market, which is increasingly short of prompt supplies - supporting elevated prices across diesel, jet fuel, fertilisers, and other key commodities," Saxo Bank analysts said.While Iran briefly declared the corridor open on Friday, the weekend seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US, led Tehran to reimpose restrictions.

Oil & Energy153d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Soar Over 4% After US Forces Board Another Oil Tanker

European natural gas futures were up on Tuesday, reversing losses from earlier in the day, after US forces boarded another oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, with links to the Iranian regime.The front-month Dutch TTF benchmark was up 4.10% to 41.94 euros per megawatt hour ($49.35), while UK NBP futures rose 3.83% to 105.19 British pence per therm ($1.40).On Tuesday, in a post on X, the US Department of Defense said that it had conducted a "right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding" of a sanctioned vessel, M/T Tifani, which it said was part of the administration's maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt the "illicit networks" that are supporting the Iranian regime.This comes ahead of the ceasefire deadline, which Trump said was "highly unlikely" to be extended during a phone interview with Bloomberg on Monday.It also comes right on the heels of the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday. US Vice President JD Vance is leading the American delegation, while Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has authorized the country's negotiators to participate, according to multiple media outlets.The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the eighth week running, but saw an uptick in traffic, with 16 vessels passing through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships transiting the Strait, as the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center continues to maintain the regional threat level at "Critical."According to Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist with a focus on commodities, diplomacy in the Strait "is becoming theatre," as he noted that power in Iran was no longer controlled by the State, but by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is now acting like a parallel authority."Any deal that ignores this fragmentation risks immediate irrelevance," he said, adding that shipping companies, energy markets, and insurers are already seeing this.This comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with the region's gas storage at its lowest level in years, at 30.40%, compared to 36.74% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG export facility in Texas has reported the arrival of its first tanker to load its inaugural cargo of super-chilled natural gas. This offers relief for markets that have been reeling from supply constraints.

Oil & Energy153d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Trades Sideways Amid Peace Talk Hopes And Potential Ceasefire End

Crude futures were range-bound on Tuesday as traders weighed prospects for high-stakes Pakistan peace talks between the US and Iran against the threat of renewed conflict.Brent crude futures eased 0.3% to $95.16 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.2% to $93.19/bbl.While prices have pulled back from Monday's highs, ING analysts cautioned that energy markets may be "underpricing" the ongoing disruption, stating that "optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock."However, with President Donald Trump ruling out a ceasefire extension beyond Wednesday evening, oil prices remain trapped between hope for a deal and the threat of renewed escalation.Trump reportedly stated it is highly unlikely he will extend the ceasefire without a signed deal, reiterating that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in force until Iran agrees to a final settlement.According to a Reuters' report citing a senior Iranian official Tehran is reviewing its participation in a second round of peace talks in Islamabad.As of Tuesday morning, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited.While Iran briefly declared the corridor open on Friday, the weekend seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US led Tehran to reimpose restrictions.

Oil & Energy153d ago

India's Middle East Oil Imports Hit Record Low Amid Hormuz Blockade

The share of Middle Eastern oil within India's supply plummeted to a record low of 26.3% in March following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Reuters analysis published Tuesday citing shipping data.Total imports for the world's third-largest consumer fell 13% month-on-month to 4.5 million barrels per day, the report said.With the US and Iran effectively blocking the waterway, traditional suppliers like Iraq and the United Arab Emirates saw shipments to India fall to multi-year lows, it said.Despite recent efforts to diversify toward Washington-backed trade deals, the blockade forced India to pivot back to Russia whose oil it had been largely avoiding to prevent imposition of US tariffs on imports of Indian goods.Imports from Moscow nearly doubled from February levels to 2.25 million bpd, now accounting for half of India's total monthly intake, the report said.

Oil & Energy153d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Over 2% Amid Second Round of Talks Between the US and Israel

European natural gas futures were down on Tuesday, with a second round of talks between the US and Iran set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday.The front-month Dutch TTF benchmark was down 2.25% to 39.38 euros per megawatt hour ($46.33), while UK NBP futures dropped 2.42% to 98.86 British pence per therm ($1.33).US Vice President JD Vance is headed to Pakistan, leading the US delegation, while Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has authorized the country's negotiators to participate in the second round of talks, according to multiple media outlets.However, uncertainties persist, with US President Donald Trump saying in a phone interview with Bloomberg that he was "highly unlikely" to extend the two-week ceasefire, which he said was set to expire on Wednesday evening.The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the eighth week running, but saw an uptick in traffic, with 16 vessels passing through over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 ships transiting the Strait, as the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center continues to maintain the regional threat level at "Critical."According to Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist with a focus on commodities, diplomacy in the Strait "is becoming theatre," as he noted that power in Iran was no longer controlled by the State, but by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is now acting like a parallel authority."Any deal that ignores this fragmentation risks immediate irrelevance," he said, adding that shipping companies, energy markets, and insurers are already seeing this.This comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with the region's gas storage at its lowest level in years, at 30.40%, compared to 36.74% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG export facility in Texas has reported the arrival of its first tanker to load its inaugural cargo of super-chilled natural gas. This offers relief for markets that have been reeling from supply constraints.

Oil & Energy154d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Slips as Market Weigh US-Iran Diplomacy

Brent futures eased on Tuesday as investors focused on high-stake peace negotiations in Pakistan, while current ceasefire deadline looms.The Brent futures contract slipped 1% to $94.57 per barrel. Murban closed at $93.04 on April 20 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update.However, with President Donald Trump ruling out a ceasefire extension beyond Wednesday evening, oil prices remains trapped between hope for a deal and the threat of renewed escalation.While prices have pulled back from Monday's highs, ING analysts cautioned that energy markets may be "underpricing" the ongoing disruption, stating that "optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock."Trump reportedly stated it is highly unlikely he will extend the ceasefire without a signed deal, reiterating that the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in force until Iran agrees to a final settlement.According to a Reuters' report citing a senior Iranian official Tehran is positively reviewing its participation in a second round of peace talks in Islamabad.As of Tuesday morning, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited.While Iran briefly declared the corridor open on Friday, the weekend seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US led Tehran to reimpose restrictions.With roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply at stake, the market is watching out for any signal from the peace negotiations in Islamabad, where negotiators are expected to convene.

Oil & Energy154d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Surges as Uncertainty Over US-Iran Talks Fuels Supply Fears

Crude oil futures climbed in after-hours trading on Monday as Iran signaled it may boycott upcoming peace talks in Pakistan, heightening fears that a fragile two-week ceasefire with the US will collapse when it expires on Tuesday.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped by 4.71% to $87.80 per barrel, while Brent futures rose 4.36% to $94.32/bbl.ING strategists said Iran's refusal to send its peace negotiating team to Pakistan opens the door to further escalation in the Arabian Gulf and higher oil and gas prices as the US-Iran ceasefire nears an end.Iran said its participation in the second round of peace talks with the US is subject to the fulfillment of certain preconditions, according to local media.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said there are no plans for a second round of talks with the US, adding that Washington is not learning from experience and that this will not lead to good results, according to media reports."The United States' so-called 'blockade' of Iran's ports or coastline is not only a violation of the Pakistani-mediated ceasefire but also both unlawful and criminal," Baghaei said in a social media post on X.Fueling further uncertainty, the US negotiating team, which is expected to be led by Vice President JD Vance, has reportedly not yet departed for Pakistan, contradicting reports that it was already on its way to Islamabad for talks.On Monday, President Trump said, in a social media post, that he believed his administration's nuclear deal with Iran would be better than a 2015 international agreement reached after years of negotiations under the Obama administration.Meanwhile, the ongoing US-Iran standoff over the Hormuz threatens to deepen the global energy crisis. It is part of the unresolved issues, which include Iran's nuclear enrichment program and Israel's ongoing invasion of Lebanon.The ceasefire between the two sides appeared in jeopardy over the weekend after Washington said it had seized an Iranian cargo vessel that tried to run its blockade and Tehran vowed to retaliate."The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is of course blocking Iranian oil exports. But it is also an action of disruption directed towards Europe and Asia," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research.The US Navy fired on an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. The Navy later seized the ship, accusing the container vessel of trying to break through its blockade as Iran warned it would retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities.The seizure follows Iran's attack on commercial vessels in the Strait on Saturday, including a container ship belonging to France's CMA CGM and two Indian-flagged ships that were attempting to cross the strategic waterway.

Oil & Energy154d ago

US Biofuels Update: Markets Mixed as Soybean Prices Fall, Soybean Oil Rises on Geopolitical Risk

Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Monday, as soybean futures dropped while soybean oil rose, both reacting to heightened tensions in the Middle East and the threat of a ceasefire expiring.The Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures contract closed 0.13% lower on Friday at $11.65 per bushel, while the CBOT May soybean oil futures contract settled 2.16% higher at 69.63 cents per pound.On Friday, the May ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 0.39% lower at $1.89 per gallon.Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said that it is unclear whether Iran has agreed to participate in any talks. In agricultural markets, energy influences were reflected in higher futures prices for corn, soybean oil, and canola. Meanwhile, escalation continues to be bearish for soybean futures."The soybean market traded mixed to begin the new week, initially pressured by a tense situation in the Middle East as well as reports that China is seeing less soybean imports in 2026-2027," Montgomery stated in a daily note.He added, "Soybean prices are likely to remain in a tight range, especially ahead of President Trump's visit to China in May, which will shed light on the demand side of the balance sheet looking forward."On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean inspections totaled 27.5 million bushels for the week ending April 16.Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.18 billion bushels, down 25% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.

Oil & Energy154d ago

Crude Flows via Hormuz Shrink, Refinery Margins Tighten Despite Ceasefire, Rystad Says

Global crude markets are tightening further as oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz continue to fall, deepening a supply shock that traders had hoped was easing after last week's brief pullback in Brent prices, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note Monday."Friday's Brent complex sell-off on Trump's reopening announcement offered some relief. Margins clawed back, and on some North Sea, West African, and Black Sea grades, the numbers briefly looked workable again," Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, chief oil analyst at Rystad, said.Physical crude costs have surged well beyond futures benchmarks, with Dated Brent averaging above $20 per barrel in April and physical differentials plus freight adding another $20 to $ 25, pushing replacement-crude economics into unworkable territory for many refiners.Rystad said some traders interpreted last week's Brent retracement as a sign that the worst of the disruption had passed. However, the underlying physical constraints have not improved.Rodriguez Masiu said the acute phase is not behind us. "Europe needs more product, and the refineries capable of producing it are cutting runs. The rational response at the refinery level would be catastrophic at the system level," she said.Oil shipments via the Hormuz have dropped since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.Rystad said April is on track for a deeper disruption than March, with Middle East Gulf production averaging 14.3 million b/d, about 3 million b/d below last month and over 13 million b/d short of pre-war levels.The consultancy said shipments at alternative outlets, Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan, have hit record highs at a combined 6.8 million b/d, but only 4.2 million b/d of that is incremental supply, far short of replacing lost volumes.Flows improved in early April as a dual-corridor opened through Iranian and Omani waters, and Iraqi loadings ticked higher. However, traffic deteriorated again after the Apr. 8 ceasefire, despite Iran's announcement that it would reopen the Strait.With a US naval blockade still restricting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, Rystad notes that the last remaining flows, largely Iranian crude and condensate, are now drying up.Peace talks are expected to continue ahead of the ceasefire's expiry on Apr. 22, but Rystad said even a swift resolution would not restore supply immediately.The consultancy forecasted that it would take until July for flows to recover to 80-90% of pre-war levels, and another one to two months before those barrels reach refineries as finished products.The tightening has driven the Dated-to-Frontline Brent spread to about $25/bbl, reflecting the extreme premium for barrels available for immediate loading."A market this short will not flatten gently," Rodriguez Masiu said. "It will correct through higher prompt prices, and the longer the refinery margin squeeze runs, the sharper that correction will need to be."

Oil & Energy154d ago

Trump Says US Blockade to Remain Until Deal

US President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated on Truth Social that the US blockade would remain in force until a deal is reached and that Iran was forcing vessels toward the US for oil."The Iranian leadership has forced hundreds of ships toward the United States, mostly Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to get their oil," Trump posted.In multiple posts on Truth Social, Trump said that the blockade would not be lifted until there is a deal, claiming that Iran was losing $500 million per day, describing the loss as "unsustainable."Regarding the military effort, Trump said, "things are going very well," and that the US was winning the war "by a lot."He posted that he was facing "no pressure" on Iran talks and said the potential agreement would be "far better" than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, criticizing the prior deal as one of the worst arrangements for US national security.In another post on Truth Social, Trump said that Democrats are attempting to undermine the US position in negotiations with Iran, while insisting he will not rush into an unfavorable agreement."I'm not going to let them rush the United States into making a deal that is not as good as it could have been," Trump said, rejecting claims of urgency.He dismissed media reports and added that talks could conclude "relatively quickly," while maintaining he is focused on securing stronger terms than previous agreements.

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Oil & Energy153d ago