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UBS Updates Its Canada Macroeconomic Forecasts Amid High Oil Prices

UBS said it is taking on board the latest moves in oil prices into its Canadian inflation projections with the latest path implied by oil futures, with Brent reaching US$118 per barrel in the May contract before settling at around US$78/barrel by the end of the year and US$73/barrel by end 2027.With this, the bank now expects annual headline inflation of 2.9% this year and 2.4% in 2027. UBS estimates a strong 1.3% non-seasonally adjusted rise in headline inflation in March, carrying the year-over-year rate one percentage point higher to 2.8% in March.UBS predicts headline inflation will peak at 3.4% year over year in April before moderating from there.In the bank's growth projections, it expects a stronger pace of exports, but marked down business fixed investment and consumption.Overall, the bank's annual projections are little changed, with annual growth of 1.6% this year and 1.7% in 2027.The latest monthly gross domestic product data suggests an "okay" start to the year, with monthly GDP up 0.1% in January, a little better than the flat print in the flash estimate, and the flash estimate for February was a 0.2% month-over-month rise.After a strong broad-based decline in employment in February, UBS forecasts a "mild" 16,000 rise in employment in March, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7% in the employment data to be published on Friday.

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Treasury121d ago

With Two of Three Byelections Considered 'Safe' Wins For Liberals Next Week, and With Latest Conservative MP Defection, PM Carney May Be Set To Head Majority Govt

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Treasury121d ago

This Comes Ahead of Three Byelections; Liberals Were Two Seats Shy of a Majority Heading In To Those Byelections

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Treasury121d ago

MP Marilyn Gladu Becomes Latest Conservative MP In About a Year To Cross the Floor and Join Federal Govt of PM Mark Carney's Liberal Party

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Treasury121d ago

Canada's Office Market Is Getting Off The Floor, Says BMO

One area of the Canadian real estate market that is tightening up is maybe the last place many would have expected said Bank of Montreal (BMO), it's the office market.Office vacancy rates nationally dipped for a third-straight quarter in Q1, according to CBRE, although still very elevated at above 17%, stated BMO.There is a clear improvement starting in the Greater Toronto Area with limited new supply and some net absorption with more return-to-office activity, pointed out the bank.Contrast that to areas like industrial, which was heavily supplied in recent years, or multifamily, which was heavily supplied and demand is also crumbling with population growth, it added.This isn't to say this is a strong office market yet, but it's one that is getting up off the floor, especially in prime areas, according to BMO.

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Treasury121d ago

Market Chatter: PM Carney Responds to Canadians Facing Around $2/L at Gas Pumps

Prime Minister Mark Carney says the federal government is aware of the high gas prices Canadians are facing, and amid uncertainty over how long the war in Iran may persist, he's "looking at" ways to help, CTV News is reporting Wednesday."What can we do to help cushion the blow for Canadians?" Carney asked at an event in Brampton, Ont. "That's something we're looking at."Carney made this comment in response to a reporter asking what he'd say to Canadians facing around $2 per litre at the pumps.The prime minister said he knows Canadians are asking themselves every day when they go to fill their tanks or heat their homes, why they feel as if they're bearing the costs of the Iran-U.S. war. Carney said "the short answer is because there's a global market.""Those countries that have lots of oil and gas see their prices go up alongside with those who don't have that oil and gas. It's the same shifts up in prices in the United States as well," Carney continued.Carney indicating that the Liberals are considering ways to offer consumers relief, comes on the heels of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre calling for gas taxes to be scrapped for rest of year. It also comes ahead of the spring economic update expected in the coming weeks.The prime minister offered no additional detail on what help his government may have in mind, or be considering, nor the timeline for when any measures may come into effect.Today Poilievre followed up on his call last week, by publishing a formal letter he sent to Carney. In it, he asks the PM to suspend the federal fuel excise tax and the GST on gas and diesel, and use the "massive windfall" the federal government is experiencing due to fuel costs, to fund it.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Treasury121d ago

Scotiabank Sees Canada's New Vehicle Sales Rising Gradually This Year, in 2027 After Q1 2026 Holds Steady

Canadian auto sales marginally declined 0.1% month over month to 1.81 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in March, based on data from Omdia, said Scotiabank.Upward revisions to data for January and February resulted in Q1 sales averaging 1.79 million SAAR units, stronger than previously expected but still down 0.2% relative to Q4 2025.Non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) sales reported by the same source for March were 170,600, down 7.8% year over year, although compared with a relatively strong start last year before newly imposed tariffs began to upend global trade.When comparing Q1 sales in NSA terms against the same period across recent years, sales were down 6.5% relative to 2025 and down 2.3% relative to 2024.The recent decline in seasonally adjusted new vehicle sales may have bottomed out, as the selling rate over the past two months has increased in line with historical trends, stated Scotiabank. However, only time will tell as there remains a host of competing factors that will impact demand.Canada's overall employment level contracted in January and February, while the unemployment rate trended sideways around 6.7% three-month moving average. Global oil prices remain elevated amid the conflict in the Middle East, which is widely expected to push up headline inflation, while the Bank of Canada will be looking for signs of risks that higher input costs are being passed through to core inflation.While the bank estimates that higher oil prices are likely a small net positive to Canadian gross domestic product growth, higher costs at the pump may weigh on vehicle demand in the near term. Meanwhile, the new federal Electric Vehicle Affordability Program may boost EV sales over the coming months.Scotiabank's outlook for Canadian light vehicle sales is 1.81 million this year. The bank expects demand to gradually improve throughout this year and next, rising to 1.87 million in 2027, although with larger uncertainty given elevated and volatile oil prices clouding the outlook.

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Treasury121d ago

"Most Curious Development" Today Is Why Traders Still Believe Next Move By the BoC Will Be a Rate Hike, says Rosenberg Research

According to Rosenberg Research in a comment on Canada within Wednesday's 'Early Morning With Dave' note a "most curious development today" is why traders still believe the Bank of Canada will be making its next move a rate hike, "or a steady diet of rate hikes, for that matter.""Consumer confidence just sagged to its lowest level in 11 months, so why not add interest rates to the list of factors depressing the local economy?," asks Rosenberg Research, sarcastically.At a time when, pre-Iran war, there was absolutely no inflation problem to speak of, it notes.Over the past month, the research notes, the share of Canadians seeing economic improvement has practically been sliced in half to a mere 15% from 27%. And for the first time in over four years, the Canadian economy has shed more than 100,000 jobs in a two-month span. "Fertile environment for a BoC rate increase, don't you think?," it says, while also noting home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in March were 52% below the norm of the past 10 years."So as things stood before the Iran war, all Canada's central bank was doing in its easing process was pushing against a string because it's difficult to stimulate credit-related activity when domestic consumer balance sheets are saddled with a near-record debt-to-income ratio," it said.Rosenberg Research further asks: Concerned about inflation in Canada? How about deflation? As, it says, in the grim reality that average home prices, which represent $8.5 trillion of assets on the household balance sheet (2.5 times the size of nominal gross domestic product), have declined 7% over the past year in the GTA -- and more to come with supply hitting the market to such an extent that new listings have ballooned 11.5% on a year-over-year basis.Rosenberg said that it wasn't the only one who didn't see a BoC rate hike because the foreign exchange market was doing so too by taking the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) to $1.39 (below 72 US cents) for the first time in four months.

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Treasury121d ago

Markets Rally Except for Commodities After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Says Scotiabank

Everything is rallying in financial markets on Wednesday except for commodities after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, said Scotiabank.Position covering may be amplifying the swings and driving somewhat of an overreaction, pointed out the bank.Oil prices are volatile but sharply lower by double-digit percentages, although the futures curve remains elevated at sustainably higher prices throughout 2026-27 than the spot prices back at the start of the year, noted the bank.That clearly signals market concern toward a) the possible fragility of the ceasefire amid uncertain negotiations, and b) the longer-term damage to geopolitical risk premiums and infrastructure, stated Scotiabank.Stocks are broadly higher with North America futures up by about 2% to 3%, European stocks are up by 3% to 5%, and Asia-Pacific benchmarks rallied by 3% to 7% across the main benchmarks.Sovereign bond yields are broadly lower with eurozone government bonds outperforming via declines of 20bps-30bps across maturities and countries, while U.S. Treasuries are rallying by 'just' 5bps-7bps, and Canadian government bonds are dearer by 10bps at the front end in a bull steepener, added Scotiabank.The US dollar (USD) is broadly weaker, although the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is slightly underperforming other crosses due to lower oil, according to the bank.

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Treasury121d ago

"Most Curious Development" Today Is Why Traders Still Believe Next Move By the BoC Will Be a Rate Hike, says Rosenberg Research

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