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Canada To Suspend Fuel Excise Tax Through Summer, BMO Says

The Canadian government on Tuesday announced that it will suspend the excise tax on gasoline/diesel starting next Monday and running through Sept. 7 -- in other words, the entirety of the summer driving season, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).This will shave 10 cents per liter from retail gasoline prices, which have been on a "wild ride," noted the bank.The conflict in Iran lifted global oil prices and, as a consequence, Canadian pump prices by roughly 30%, pointed out BMO.That follows the April 2025 removal of the consumer carbon tax, which cut the price by about 17 cents per liter.While the latter pulled down headline inflation, the favorable year-ago comparison will disappear in April, lifting the rate again, stated the bank.BMO judges that the new government measure will then trim headline inflation by about 0.2 percentage point, leaving annual inflation for 2026 right at 3.0%.This measure will also cost Canada a reported $2.4 billion, but there appears to be ample room to roll it out without compromising budget forecasts for the deficit, according to the bank.

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Treasury24d ago

SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Wednesday economic news summary pointed out:-- Brent consolidates around US$95/barrel, bond yields steady near weekly lows after "benign" United States producer price index. Bund curve bull steeper after European Central Bank President Lagarde comments on Tuesday at the International Monetary Fund.-- ECB President Lagarde: eurozone economy between baseline and adverse scenario, not severe. On energy: the eurozone is less affected by the impact of a war today compared with 2022. On monetary policy: we must be agile and ready to move in the direction required, data dependent, not rate path that I can confirm today, don't know honestly.-- Day ahead: U.S. import and export prices. Federal Reserve Beige Book, speakers Barr, Bowman. ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Villeroy, Escriva and Cipollone. Bank of England's Bailey. Swiss SNB's Schlegel.-- Nikkei +0.4%, EUR 10-year IRS -2bps at 3.03%, Brent crude -0.2% at US$94.6/barrel, Gold +0.1% at US$4,816/oz.

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Treasury24d ago

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Leans Higher to 4.26% Pre-Bell; 2-Yr Rate Up 1 Basis Point to 3.76%

Treasury24d ago

Most US Treasury Yields Rise Pre-Bell as Investors Await Announcement on Iran Peace Talks This Week

Treasury24d ago

NRG Energy Prices Senior Secured, Unsecured Notes

NRG Energy (NRG) said late Tuesday it has priced its offering of $500 million of 4.955% senior secured first lien notes due 2031.The company said it also priced its offering of $1.05 billion of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due 2034, and $1.05 billion of 6.125% senior unsecured notes due 2036.NRG said the use of the net proceeds includes to help repay a portion of its borrowings and to fund its tender offer for 7.250% senior secured notes due 2032.

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Treasury24d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Tuesday vs 3:00 Monday2yr 100-07 vs 100-04; 3.751% vs 3.776%5yr 100-00 vs 99-26; 3.871% vs 3.913%10yr 98-30 vs 98-20; 4.256% vs 4.295%30yr 98-04 vs 97-21; 4.867% vs 4.898%2/10 50.252 bps vs 51.475 bps5/30 99.445 bps vs 98.120 bps

Treasury24d ago

Daiwa Comments on Tuesday's Eurozone Government Bonds, U.K. Gilts

While Spanish inflation in March was revised higher as energy prices rose the most in four years, eurozone government bonds followed the global trend higher on Tuesday, said Daiwa Capital Markets.Gilts also made gains on Tuesday, while a United Kingdom retail survey suggested that sales in March were "firm," although flattered by the timing of Easter, noted the bank.

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Treasury24d ago

Nexus Industrial REIT Completes Its $500-Million Inaugural Unsecured Debenture Offering

Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-UN.TO) on Tuesday said it completed an offering of $500-million of senior unsecured debentures.The REIT said that the offering consisted of $300 million of Series A Debentures maturing April 14, 2029 and $200 million of Series B Debentures maturing April 14, 2031.The Series A Debentures bear interest at a fixed annual rate of 4.236% per year, and the Series B Debentures bear interest at a fixed annual rate of 4.641% per year.The REIT added that Morningstar DBRS has provided it with a credit rating of BBB (low) with a Stable trend relating to the Debentures.The REIT plans to use the net proceeds to repay existing indebtedness and for general trust purposes.The REIT's units were last seen up $0.10 to $7.96 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $7.96, Change: $+0.10, Percent Change: +1.27%

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Treasury24d ago

CFIB Welcomes Temporary Federal Fuel Tax Suspension in Canada

Tuesday's decision by the Canadian government to temporarily suspend excise fuel taxes on gasoline and diesel will provide welcome relief for small businesses already squeezed by high costs, said the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).It is good to see both the government and the official opposition supporting action on this critical issue, noted CFIB.The group said business owners have been feeling significant energy cost pressures and uncertainty over the past two months, it added. Nearly two-thirds of small businesses report they are currently absorbing additional fuel costs, while about a third have increased their prices as a result.The next step for the federal government should be to permanently eliminate the tax-on-tax treatment of charging the GST on gasoline and diesel fuel taxes, stated CFIB. Provincial governments should also follow suit and pause their fuel excise and sales taxes.

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Treasury25d ago

Expectations of Bank of Canada Rate Hikes Are "A Bit" Overpriced, Says Deutsche Bank

Bank of Canada looks "a bit" overpriced for rate hikes, given a tepid Canadian economy, said Deutsche Bank.Despite Canada being a huge net energy exporter, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has underperformed, consistent with the bank's bearish CAD view.

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Treasury25d ago

Morgan Stanley Sees Eurozone Industrial Production Declining Much Less in February Than in January

Morgan Stanley said it foresees a decline of eurozone industrial production (IP) in February, or down 0.3% month over month, after a 1.5% month-over-month decline in January.Eurozone IP for February is slated to be released on Wednesday at 5 a.m. ET.

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Treasury25d ago

IMF Trims Canada's GDP Growth Estimates This Year But Keeps Unchanged for 2027

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Tuesday trimmed its 2026 forecast for Canada's gross domestic product growth by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, while keeping the estimate at 1.9% for next year.The IMF published its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.Canada's GDP expanded 1.7% in 2025.The softer near-term profile reflects weaker momentum at the end of 2025 and slower population growth, while earlier monetary easing and supportive fiscal policy help sustain domestic demand, wrote the IMF in Tuesday's WEO.This is broadly unchanged from the October 2025 WEO forecast, with the positive terms-of-trade shock of higher oil prices offsetting the other effects of the war in the Middle East, added the IMF.Consumer prices are projected to rise to 2.5% this year before slowing to 2.1% in 2027, which was the same level as in 2025, according to the IMF's April 2026 WEO.

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Treasury25d ago

Canada PM Carney Says He Is Not Considering Calling An Election After Byelection Results and Floor Crossings Give His Liberals a Majority Govt

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Treasury25d ago

Canada PM Carney Adds Suspension Will Come Into Effect on April 20 and Last Until Sept. 7

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Treasury25d ago

Canada PM Carney Says Govt To Temporarily Suspend the Federal Fuel Excise Tax On Gas and Diesel Starting Next Week

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Treasury25d ago

Canada PM Mark Carney Lays Out Policy Plans After 3 Byelection Results Overnight Gave His Liberal Party a Majority In Govt

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Treasury25d ago

Desjardins Asks If High Oil Prices Will Spoil The Resilience of Consumers in Canada

The conflict with Iran has sent global oil prices soaring, pushing up fuel and fertilizer costs, while transportation bottlenecks have resurfaced, raising concerns that supply chain pressures could once again drive up the cost of everything, notes Randall Bartlett at Desjardins.This energy price shock risks weighing on Canadian consumers, who remained resilient throughout the trade war with the United States, Bartlett says.According to Bartlett, the lowest-income households, already under significant financial strain, are the least able to handle a reacceleration in inflation. However, he says, they are also less exposed to higher transportation costs in the near term than more affluent households.In addition, Bartlett notes, the increase in the GST/HST credit -- the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, planned before the Iran conflict -- should more than offset the consumption impact of higher energy costs in the middle part of 2026.Bartlett says tax cuts, price controls and increased income transfers to the most financially vulnerable households are levers all levels of government could pull to provide additional relief to Canadians. But, he adds, they all come at a cost, and some more than others. "Policy options for offsetting the inflationary impact of higher energy prices will need to balance providing broad support with assisting the Canadians in greatest need, all while keeping an eye on fiscal sustainability," Bartlett notes.

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Treasury25d ago

High Wildfire and Flood Scores Seen For Municipal Bond Offerings This Week

Multiple municipal bond offerings this week have a high exposure to climate risk, specifically high Flood and Wildfire Scores, according to ICE Climate Data.A $17 million offering from Freeport, N.Y., records a Flood Risk Score of 5.0 out of 5.0, ICE reports. Locations with a component Physical Climate Risk Score, which includes Flood, Wildfire and Hurricane, of 3.0 or higher out of 5.0 indicate high physical climate risk due to hurricane, flooding or wildfire events.An $84 million bond deal from Val Verde Unified School District, Calif., has Wildfire Risk Score of 5.0 out of 5.0 on ICE's scale, while a $7 million tranche from Harris County Utility District No. 6, Texas, records an Extreme Heat Score of 4.3.Elsewhere, a $360 million offering from Miami-Dade County School District, Fla., records an Acute Physical Risk Score of 4.2, and a $10 million deal from Eunice Municipal Schools, N.M., has a Combined Physical Risk Score of 3.2, due to their proximity to weather-related events, according to ICE Climate Data.This content is created byand includes certain data sourced from ICE Climate Data ("ICE"). Views ofdo not necessarily represent the views of ICE. ICE is not a nationally registered statistical rating organization, nor should this commentary be construed to constitute an assessment of the creditworthiness of any company or financial instrument or as providing investment advice. Climate analytics available from ICE are meant to be generally indicative of overall feature sets but should not be considered an analyst's opinion of the underlying investability of a particular location or security.The ICE Climate Risk Score is a singular, 0.0-5.0 assessment score that blends all the ICE Spatial Intelligence Platform's climate hazard models together into one rigorous, relative measure of total property risk from physical climate hazards to a given location or set of locations related to the investment. To learn more about the ICE Climate Risk Data, visit: ICE Sustainable Finance Data (https://www.ice.com/data-services/sustainable-finance-data/disclaimer)

Treasury25d ago

Not Much Reaction in Canadian Dollar, Bonds From Prime Minister Carney Getting A Majority in Parliament, Says Scotiabank

The ruling Liberal Party secured its long-sought-after majority in Canada's parliament by winning all three by-elections late Monday, said Scotiabank.While the two Toronto ridings were easy to win for the Liberals, the Quebec riding win was achieved with a wide enough margin to put to rest the contest against the regional BQ, noted the bank. The result gives the Libs 174 seats in parliament, or two more than needed for a majority.Markets are ignoring the outcome as the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) and bonds are snoozing throughout it all because a) the majority outcome was generally expected well in advance in the wake of floor crossings and by-election calls, and b) because the real test for the economy, fiscal policy, monetary policy and markets will come in the form of how Prime Minister Mark Carney's administration uses its majority.Anonymous Liberal party members have remarked in the press that they continue to explicitly target up to eight more opposition members of parliament to cross the floor, pointed out Scotiabank.Even more defections could conceivably strengthen the majority further, which could offer some padding if any of them turn out to be disloyal to future initiatives, stated the bank.PM Carney is wasting no time with his newfound majority government. Carney plans to announce new affordability measures at a press event at 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, added Scotiabank. They are reportedly focused on gasoline and diesel prices. The bank hopes that whatever is announced is very limited and very targeted while sticking to the plan of extending the average duration of the government's spending plans to address underperformance in areas like resource development, infrastructure and defense.Those areas, however, carry high uncertainty in terms of deficit projections, given they are globally notorious for cost overruns and delays.Scotiabank will watch for the date of a spring fiscal update after Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne held consultations with private sector economists in Toronto last month on a day when many were tied up with the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve communications. Tuesday's presser may start the advance announcements on the path to a mini budget of sorts.It's widely understood that the federal deficit is coming in lower than anticipated for FY25-26, according to the bank. That may be a combination of decent growth in the domestic economy as a subset of soft gross domestic product figures, plus surging revenues from taxing coating commodity prices, plus perhaps slow rollout of some initiatives.As deficit tracking looks more favorable, the temptation may be to spend the surprise and book a bunch of last-minute initiatives. That would extend past practices at the expense of the deficit if it happens, said Scotiabank.

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Treasury25d ago

Canada's Bond Market Looks To Be Coping With Geopolitical Uncertainty, Says National Bank

"All things considered, Canada's bond market looks to be coping with geopolitical uncertainty (and non-trivial net bond supply)," said National Bank in an overnight note.National Bank noted some $2.25 trillion of Canadian bonds changed hands in March, "far and away a new monthly record". The prior high water mark was $2.01 trillion set in October 24. The bank said with budget deficits and large scale capital needs driving the stock of domestic bonds higher, secondary volumes should be biased higher. All the same, it added, March's volume surge was "striking", a 9% monthly increase in seasonally adjusted terms and 24% higher year on year.In the Government of Canada (GoC) bond market, where over 80% of trade happens, market-makers "no doubt felt pressure for stretches, as headline noise presumably had clients moving in the same direction", said National Bank. "But credit the dealer community for providing ample liquidity, as evidenced by the near 60% year over year increase in GoC bond volumes with domestic clients."National noted with international hedge funds increasingly active in GoCs, non-resident attitudes bear close scrutiny. "But non-resident flows appeared relatively orderly (and hardlyunidirectional) from our vantage point. A bit of a test passed then."Conditions in Canada's credit markets haven't significantly "soured", or at least not yet, National Bank said. Excluding GoCs, it noted, executed bond volume rose 6% month over month in March to stand at about 15% higher year over year. "That's a slower advance than for the sovereign, but the federals are growing their debt stock faster after all," it added.As with Canadas, National Bank noted dealers facilitated incremental volume with all major client types -- be they domestic or international. Now, it also noted, one aspect consistent with elevated volatility is the apparent moderation in secondary volumes as you move out of the credit spectrum. "In other words, lower risk (or lower beta) government spread product saw relatively healthier turnover in March, while corporate bond volumes were more sedate. But all things considered, the bank dubbed this a relatively well-functioning (and reasonably liquid) domestic bond market...which is a comfort given that political risk could continue to flare."

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Treasury25d ago

Not Much Reaction in Canadian Dollar, Bonds From Prime Minister Carney Getting A Majority in Parliament, Says Scotiabank

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