Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Adss Of Bhp Group
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price to USD86 (up from USD83), valuing BHP at 6.80x FY 26 EV/EBITDA, or 19% above its three-year historical mean, reflecting near-term commodity tailwinds from copper and iron ore. Management maintains FY 26 copper guidance and now expects production in the upper half of the range, supported by Escondida's strong performance with record material mined and lowered unit cost guidance to USD1.00-USD1.20/lb (from USD1.20-USD1.50/lb). We remain optimistic on copper as the global market is forecast to shift to a deficit of approximately 150k tonnes in 2026, supported by electrification and digital infrastructure demand. However, we are cautious on iron ore due to oversupply concerns from Simandou production and sluggish Chinese steel demand. The successful resolution of BHP's contract dispute with CMRG eliminates volume uncertainty and should stabilize core iron revenue from China. We forecast EPADS at USD5.24/USD5.48 in FY 26/FY 27 (up from USD5.22/USD5.32).