Research
Triple Flag Precious Metals Maintained at Outperform at National Bank After Steppe Gold Deal; Price Target at C$60
National Bank Financial on Thursday reiterated its outperform rating on the shares of Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM.TO, TFPM) and its C$60.00 price target after the company reached an agreement that sees Steppe Gold (STGO.TO) deliver all gold and silver in arrears under its stream agreement with the royalty company and has delivered all gold prepay ounces in arrears. It also raised its 2026 guidance."Before market open, Triple Flag announced a settlement agreement with Steppe Gold Ltd. wherein Steppe has delivered all gold and silver stream obligations in arrears under its stream agreement and has delivered all gold prepay ounces in arrears. Additionally, the settlement agreement provides that the Steppe Gold Stream Agreement has been amended to provide for fixed cumulative deliveries totalling 34,770 oz of gold over the ten-year period starting in Q3/26 and ending in Q4/36, following which Triple Flag will be entitled to gold deliveries equal to 1.5% of the previous quarter's gold production from the ATO mine, up to a maximum of 500 oz of gold. Consequently, Triple Flag has raised its 2026 guidance to 100,000 - 110,000 GEOs from 95,000 - 105,000 GEOs. We currently model 101,822 GEOs ascribing no GEO deliveries from the ATO mine for 2026. Given the settlement and receipt of arrears and fixed GEOs for H2/26, our comparable number would be ~108,670 GEOs. TFPM's 2030 guidance is at 140,000 - 150,000 GEOs (NBCM: 147,490 GEOs; 7,124 GEOs from ATO in our Base Case). Given the amended fixed delivery schedule, ATO is expected to deliver 3,660 GEOs and a comparable number of ~144,840 GEOs for our Base Case," analyst Shane Nagle wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
$TFPM.TOTFPM