Research
Research Alert: CFRA Lifts View On Shares Of Marathon Petroleum To Buy From Hold
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raised our 12-month target price by $56 to $277, reflecting a combination of relative valuation and DCF models. On a relative basis, we apply a 7.9x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA, slightly above the peer average. We think a peer premium is reasonable on the basis of a superior return on invested capital. This approach yields a value of $275 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using free cash flow growth of 9.5% per year for 10 years, 2.0% thereafter, discounted at a WACC of 7.2%, yields a value of $279 per share. We lift our 2026 EPS estimate by $13.83 to $26.74 and 2027's by $8.03 to $21.57. MPC should benefit from a widening spread between Western Canada Select and WTI crudes, which benefit its Midwestern refineries, as well as a wide spread between Brent and WTI that has blown out since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict. We think that, even if the conflict ended today, it could easily take until 2027 to restore energy markets to square one.
$MPC