$TFII.TO

National Bank on Fireside Chat With TFI International CEO

National Bank hosted TFI International (TFII.TO) chief executive Alain Bedard to a fireside chatAfter years of challenging end markets, the trucking sector has more recently been boosted by regulatory actions in the U.S. and Canada that is effectively leading to capacity exiting the market, notes analyst Cameron Doerksen.The lower capacity has also enabled TFI International to raise its contract rates with customers, but demand is still relatively soft, Bedard notes. He doesn't expect the situation to improve materially until next year.Improving the profitability in the company's U.S. LTL operations is a clear priority for management. Although TFII is showing some improvement on that front, there is still work to do operationally, but the company is beginning to show some organic growth in that segment, Doerksen notes.The company also expects to lay low on the M&A front in the near-term as sellers' expectations have increased significantly given the more positive outlook on the industry broadly. However, absent any large acquisitions, debt reduction will remain the capital allocation priority this year.National Bank has an outperform rating and $208.00 price target on TFI International shares,Price: $222.19, Change: $+1.79, Percent Change: +0.81%

TSX Closer: The Index Edges Down, But Still Near Its Record Close As CIBC Flags Its Top 10 Best Ideas For June

The Toronto Stock Exchange succumbed to some late selling pressure Monday on some profit taking as it trades shy of the record close it a week ago, while CIBC said it continues to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer and picked out its 10 'Best Ideas' for June.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 34.25 points, or 0.1%, to 34,734.89, leaving it about 100 points shy of last Monday's record finish of 34,830. Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech, up 6%, and then Base Metals, up 2.6%, and Energy, up 2.1%. In contrast, Financial was down 1.3% and Utilities was 0.5% lower.CIBC published its Top-10 Best Ideas for June, while noting its best ideas for the month of May returned 2.28% and marginally trailed the benchmark by six basis points. Year to date, CIBC's monthly recommended baskets have returned 15.32%, reflecting 571 bps of alpha over the benchmark TSX index. Comparatively, the TSX and SPX indices have returned 9.61% and 10.8% respectively, it noted.The following represent CIBC's top-10 best ideas for the month of June: Brookfield Renewable (BEP-UN.TO), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-UN.TO), Capital Power (CPX.TO), Celestica (CLS.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), Capstone Copper (CS.TO), Lundin Mining (LUN.TO), Linamar (LNR.TO), Keyera (KEY.TO), and TFI International (TFII.TO).CIBC said: "As we head into the summer months, equity markets continue to show resilience on the surface and are still being driven by momentum. Indices are at new price discovery highs and climbing the wall of worry, while trends are looking good and remain intact. The same quantitative and technical signals that have worked from the March lows continue to reward investors -- momentum is doing what momentum tends to do, which is to build upon itself and force buyers in."That said, beneath the surface, not much has changed from a breadth perspective -- still mediocre. The magnitude of the recent narrow sector concentration in mega-cap technology remains dominant, but with some spillover effects in broader technology sub-sectors with AI-related tailwinds, technology may be broadening out internally (hardware, memory, semis, cyber, clouds, and even software now). U.S. technology did all the heavy lifting this past month -- technology and its sub-sectors are the only ones that are mostly populating our leadership rotation quad. Given the one- and three-month timespans of the relative-strength leadership in technology (within quad 1), it would be reasonable to suggest that the next bigger development may be about transitioning into a lower quad (quad 3, consolidation). This may set the stage for the market to begin to shift its character throughout the summertime, moving away from simple "beta-chasing" and back toward a "late-cycle"-like rotation environment, arguably similar to late Q4/25 and early Q1/26. This does not imply an imminent negative reversal. If breadth-broadening can begin to emerge, uptrends may establish better durability. Otherwise, indices may lose trend and get stuck in a range."CIBC noted at the start of the year, it used its price discovery framework to calculate a trading range for the S&P 500 index between a lower band of 7,490 and an upper band of 7,790 for 2026. With the index now around 7,580, approaching the upper end of that range, completing what was previously a measured move calculation, the bank said. This doesn't end the bull trend, but it does mean risk reward for chasing upside has become less attractive at current levels, it added."Overall, we remain cautiously constructive on risk assets and continue to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer, supported by the recent solid Q2 earnings growth trends. However, once again, beneath the surface, breadth conditions are not yet showing affirmative follow-through expansion as leadership remains increasingly narrow and concentrated within the same group of stocks, and trading volumes are historically thinner in summertime which may reduce liquidity and force volatility. In our opinion, the dominant leading factors like Growth, Beta, and Momentum are likely to cool as the market transitions into a consolidation phase (quad 3) throughout summertime."It is for the above mentioned reasons that we continue to favour a balanced, barbell style with directional setups for our recommended portfolio selections throughout the summer months, rather than chasing beta."Of commodities, gold fell off a two-week high by midafternoon Monday as the dollar rose after fresh attacks between the United States and Iran boosted oil prices, reviving inflation worries. Gold for July delivery was down US$81.70 to US$4,511.30 per ounce, after rising to a highest since May 14 on Friday.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 5.5%, climbing off a six-week low on heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S., dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock. The July WTI Crude Oil Contract closed up US$4.80 to settles at US$92.16 per barrel, while August Brent oil rose US$3.86 to US$94.88.

CIBC Raises TFI International's Price Target to US$162 From US$134

CIBC Capital Markets reiterated its outperformer rating on the shares of TFI International (TFII, TFII.TO) while raising its price target to US$162 from US$134 after the company reported its first-quarter results.The trucking and logistics company reported Q1 results that were "ahead of expectations" and provided Q2 adj. EPS guidance "comfortably ahead of expectations", said CIBC."Within TFII's LTL (less than truckload) segment, the company highlighted a clear sequential inflection in LTL volumes as the quarter progressed, with January shipments down ~10% Y/Y, February shipments flattish, and then turning positive to up ~8% Y/Y in March and holding at similarly strong levels in April," noted CIBC.This reflects better operating conditions following early-quarter weather disruptions, said CIBC."Importantly, revenue per shipment also stabilized into April (roughly flat Y/Y), an improvement from down low-single digits in March, suggesting incremental volume has not come at the expense of pricing discipline," said CIBC. "TFII was also able to put through GRI in mid-March, but this accounts for just 25% of LTL shipments."TFII is also pursuing other strategic pricing initiatives including customer-specific pricing for its 3PL customer, noted CIBC and said that this suggests TForce Freight (TFF) is beginning to see both pricing and volume momentum which are "key drivers for U.S. LTL OR to fall to below 90%.""The key takeaway from TFII's Q1 results and earnings call was that it saw strong momentum exiting the quarter," said CIBC. "We have raised our earnings estimates to reflect TFII's commentary with our price target moving from (US)$134 to (US)$162. We keep our Outperformer rating."Price: $201.54, Change: $+13.01, Percent Change: +6.90%

TFI International Keeps Outperform, Target Raised To C$208 From $190 at National Bank "As Industry Recovery Accelerates"

TFI International Price Target Raised to US$158 at RBC

RBC Capital Markets raised its price target on TFI International (TFII.TO, TFII) to US$158 from US$137.Analyst Walter Spracklin maintained an Outperform rating on shares of the Canadian transport and logistics company following its Q1 results on Monday."With two quarters in a row of results beating (albeit lowered) expectations (Q1/26 EPS of $0.69 vs street $0.61), TFII has followed now with a quarter forward guide that (for the first time) is above expectations ($1.50 to $1.60 guide vs. street $1.31)," Spracklin said in a note to clients."While the stock has been on a run (up 40% from March lows), we believe there was still some trepidation around a conservative guide - and the stock still remains cheap relative to peers (at a P/E of 20.2x 2027 vs LTL (31x) and TL (24x) peers)," the analyst said.

TFI International Q1 Adjusted Profit Falls But Beats Estimates

TFI International (TFII.TO, TFII) after the close Monday reported an 11% year-over-year drop in its first-quarter adjusted profit, while revenue was broadly flat but came in above analysts' expectations.The trucking and logistics company said adjusted profit, excluding most one-time items, totaled US$57.2 million, or US$0.69 per share, down from US$64.2 million, or US$0.76, in the prior-year period, but exceeding FactSet estimates of US$0.61.Revenue for the quarter was US$1.95 billion, little changed from US$1.96 billion a year earlier, and ahead of FactSet estimates of US$1.90 billion. Revenue before fuel surcharges was US$1.70 billion compared to US$1.71 billion in the prior year period. The decrease is primarily due to reduced volumes driven by weaker end market demand partially offset by contributions from business acquisitions, the company said.The company said its board also approved a US$0.47 quarterly dividend, unchanged from the prior quarter.In its guidance, assuming no significant positive or negative change in the operating environment, the company expects second quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of US$1.50 to US$1.60. It anticipates full-year net capital expenditures excluding real estate, between US$225 million and US$250 million."We easily exceeded our first quarter earnings outlook on stronger revenue and higher profitability for both Truckload and Logistics despite adverse weather early in the quarter, thanks to the hard work of our talented team and benefitting from our strategic investments in recent years," said chief executive Alain Bedard. "Acquisitions strategically pursued during the weaker cycle and enabled by our strong capital position have enhanced our diversified portfolio of operating companies, and the resulting mix of industrial end market exposure is beginning to benefit our operating results."The company's shares closed down C$1.04 to C$188.53 on Toronto Stock Exchange.

TFI Board Approved a US$0.47 quarterly dividend, an increase of 4% over the prior year period

TFI Q1 Adjusted Diluted EPS of U$0.69 compares to $0.76 in Q1 2025

TFI Q1 Adjusted Net Income US$57.2M Compares to $64.2M in Q1 2025

RBC Changes Estimates for Canadian Trucking and Diversified Industrials

RBC Capital Markets outlined Monday estimate changes for Canadian trucking and diversified industrials equities ahead of the first-quarter earnings reporting season.RBC lowered Cargojet's (CJT.TO) price target to $140 from $143 while maintaining its outperform rating. The EBITDA estimate for the company was also decreased to $80 million from $83 million, driven by indication Canadian consumer spending on discretionary goods is pulling back.The EBITDA estimate for Mullen Group (MTL.TO) remained unchanged at $79 million while its price target increased to $19 from $17 with an outperform rating. RBC expects recent PMI readings and potential infrastructure investment to favorably affect demand and sentiment in the shares.RBC cut Stella-Jones (SJ.TO)'s price target to $93 from $95 and maintained its sector perform rating while its earnings per share estimate was reduced to $1.27 from $1.47. While RBC sees utility pole momentum continuing in 2026, RBC sees the Tie outlook as uncertain and flags risk given aggressive behavior from Stella's main competitor.Meanwhile, the EPS estimate for TFI International (TFII.TO) was unchanged at $0.65 while its price target remained at US$137 with an outperform rating. RBC said it is bullish on recent pricing trends and does not expect management to provide full year 2026 guidance given the uncertain backdrop.Westshore Terminals Investment (WTE.TO)'s price target increased to $39 from $34 while its outperform was maintained. The EBITDA estimate was also unchanged at $29 million.Price: $84.94, Change: $-0.95, Percent Change: -1.11%