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Oil & Energy

Geopolitical Risks Support Oil Outlook, Offshore Stocks Remain Attractive, TPH Energy Says

Middle East tensions pushed West Texas Intermediate crude above $80 per barrel last week as geopolitical risks supported oil prices, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Investors are watching whether Iran will direct the Houthis to shut the Bab al Mandab Strait after Iranian officials warned they could respond if the US targets the country's energy infrastructure, the report said.TPH expects crude to average between $75/bbl and $80/bbl in 2027 but sees additional upside if the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al Mandab Strait closes, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases end or China returns to the oil market.TPH initiated coverage of Transocean (RIG) and Noble (NE) with Buy ratings and upgraded EQT (EQT) to Buy last week as marketing activity remained strong across the continent.Investors continued favoring offshore drillers as US shale showed signs of maturing, increasing expectations of a shift toward international and offshore projects, TPH said.TPH said hedge funds largely maintained underweight positions in natural gas because upstream producers continue pursuing production growth despite weakening long-term returns.TPH expects challenging natural gas fundamentals to persist through 2027 as prices approach levels where producer returns become unattractive and cash flows for some companies fail to cover even maintenance spending.TPH recommends investors gradually rebuild positions in gas-focused equities despite near-term headwinds, citing meaningful upside in forward natural gas prices beyond 2028.Price: $5.20, Change: $+0.06, Percent Change: +1.23%

$EQT$NE$RIG
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were lower late Wednesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index decreasing 0.9% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 0.6%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index shed 2.1%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index declined 1.4%.On Wednesday, the US and Iran held indirect technical talks in Doha as they seek to agree on the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire, a source with direct knowledge of the talks and an Iranian official told Reuters.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.7% to $68.31 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 2.2% to $71.38 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures declined 2.2% to $3.20 per 1 million BTU.In sector news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended June 26 following a fall of 15.1 million barrels in the previous week. Excluding inventories in the SPR, commercial crude oil stocks declined by 3.8 million barrels after a 6.1 million barrel decrease in the previous week, a larger decline than the 2.2 million barrel decrease expected in a Bloomberg survey.In corporate news, Sable Offshore (SOC) shares surged 42% after the firm said Wednesday it has priced a combined equity and debt offering to raise capital and refinance borrowings tied to its energy assets.New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI) appointed new executives, including Charlie Nelson, currently president and chief operating officer, as chairman and chief executive, effective immediately, the company said Wednesday. Shares were falling past 17%.Eni (E) said it agreed with Mercuria to establish an equally owned joint venture to oversee energy commodities trading activities across global markets. Eni shares were down 2.6%.Equinor (EQNR) has entered into a letter of intent with Transocean (RIG) to charter three Cat D rigs for operations on the Norwegian continental shelf under an agreement valued at about $1 billion, the company said Wednesday. Equinor shares were shedding 0.7% lower, and Transocean was down 0.9%.

$E$EQNR$NUAI$RIG$SOC
Commodities

Market Chatter: Norwegian Offshore Labor Talks Seek to Prevent Energy Sector Walkout

Norway's state mediator opened wage negotiations Wednesday as offshore labor unions sought to prevent a strike that could disrupt the country's oil and gas industry starting Friday, Reuters reported Wednesday.An initial strike could involve more than 600 members from the three unions, Styrke, Safe and DSO, while additional workers could join if the wage dispute remains unresolved.The report said the action could affect Transocean's (RIG) Encourage rig, Odfjell Technology's Linus rig, AKOFS Offshore's Seafarer vessel and Equinor's (EQNR) Gullfaks B platform.Transocean, Equinor, Odfjell Technology and AKOFS Offshore did not immediately reply to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $31.37, Change: $-0.03, Percent Change: -0.10%

$EQNR$RIG
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Wednesday Afternoon

Energy stocks were lower Wednesday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index decreasing 0.8% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 0.3%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index shed 1.6%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index declined 1.3%.On Wednesday, the US and Iran held indirect technical talks in Doha as they seek to agree on the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire, a source with direct knowledge of the talks and an Iranian official told Reuters.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 1.8% to $68.26 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 2.3% to $71.25 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures shed 1.6% to $3.22 per 1 million BTU.In sector news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended June 26 following a fall of 15.1 million barrels in the previous week. Excluding inventories in the SPR, commercial crude oil stocks declined by 3.8 million barrels after a 6.1 million barrel decrease in the previous week, a larger decline than the 2.2 million barrel decrease expected in a Bloomberg survey.In corporate news, Sable Offshore (SOC) shares surged 36% after the firm said Wednesday it has priced a combined equity and debt offering to raise capital and refinance borrowings tied to its energy assets. Proceeds will be used to repay a senior secured term loan with Exxon Mobil (XOM), as well as for transaction costs and general corporate purposes, Sable said. Exxon shares were down 0.2%.Eni (E) said it agreed with Mercuria to establish an equally owned joint venture to oversee energy commodities trading activities across global markets. Shares were down 2.5%.Equinor (EQNR) has entered into a letter of intent with Transocean (RIG) to charter three Cat D rigs for operations on the Norwegian continental shelf under an agreement valued at about $1 billion, the company said Wednesday. Equinor shares were 0.2% lower, and Transocean was down 0.8%.

$E$EQNR$RIG$SOC$XOM
Commodities

Equinor Signs $1 Billion Letter of Intent With Transocean for 3 Cat D Rigs

Norwegian energy major Equinor (EQNR) on Wednesday said it has entered into a letter of intent for a $1 billion agreement with Swiss offshore drilling contractor Transocean (RIG) regarding the use of three Cat D rigs on the Norwegian continental shelf.The deal is expected to reduce well costs, speed up the delivery of new wells and maintain high output towards 2035, the company said in a statement.The contract, which includes mobilization, is based on a day rate of less than $400,000 over seven rig-years and covers Cat D rigs Transocean Enabler for three years and the Transocean Encourage and Transocean Endurance for two years each. Optional integrated drilling services are not included.Work is yet to be assigned to the rigs, the statement said.Originally ordered by Equinor, the Cat D rigs are semi-submersible offshore drilling rigs designed to adapt to Norway's winter weather and have operated on the Norwegian continental shelf since their completion in 2015 and 2016.Equinor is targeting Norwegian continental shelf production of 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2035, with about 70% of the output expected to come from new wells, according to Rune Nedregaard, senior vice president for Wells at Equinor.Price: $31.16, Change: $-0.24, Percent Change: -0.76%

$EQNR$RIG
Equities

Equinor Signs $1 Billion Rig Agreement With Transocean

Equinor (EQNR) has entered into a letter of intent with Transocean (RIG) to charter three Cat D rigs for operations on the Norwegian continental shelf under an agreement valued at about $1 billion, the company said Wednesday.The agreement covers Transocean Enabler for three years, Transocean Encourage and Transocean Endurance for two years each, the company said.The contract is based on a day rate below $400,000 over seven rig years.The rigs will support its plan to reduce well costs, accelerate new wells and maintain production through 2035, Equinor said.

$EQNR$RIG
Wire

Oilfield Services Stocks Post Solid Q1 Results Amid Easing Middle East Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says

Oilfield services and equipment stocks delivered strong Q1 results, mainly driven by stable North American activity and better-than-feared Middle East impact, Morgan Stanley said in a note Thursday.According to the note, Middle East disruptions remained the main near-term headwind for the sector, but management teams broadly described the impact as "transitory."Companies including Baker Hughes (BKR), Halliburton (HAL), SLB (SLB), NOV (NOV), Helmerich & Payne (HP), and Tenaris (TS) pointed to effects such as offshore activity curtailments, supply chain friction, higher logistics costs, and softer regional activity.The companies also highlighted incremental activity upside outside the region, as customers increasingly focus on energy security and supply diversification. Tenaris noted that operators are already accelerating North American and offshore activity in response, while Transocean (RIG) said the conflict has reinforced the global energy security imperative, the bank said."The broader takeaway was that the geopolitical shock may ultimately extend the international and offshore upcycle, thus supporting a more constructive medium-term backdrop," the firm added.Morgan Stanley raised its price targets on Tenaris to $53 from $50 and on Helmerich & Payne to $39 from $35.Price: $62.98, Change: $-0.62, Percent Change: -0.97%

$BKR$HAL$HP$RIG$SLB$TS
Equities

Transocean Q1 Adjusted Loss Narrows, Revenue Rises; Q2 Guidance Set

Transocean (RIG) reported a Q1 adjusted loss late Monday of $0.03 per diluted share, narrowing from a loss of $0.10 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected non-GAAP EPS of $0.08.Contract drilling revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $1.08 billion, up from $906 million a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.03 billion.For Q2, the company expects contract drilling revenue of $930 million to $970 million. Analysts expect $962.2 million.The company now expects 2026 contract drilling revenue of $3.80 billion to $3.90 billion, compared with $3.80 billion to $3.95 billion expected earlier. Analysts expect $3.87 billion.

$RIG
Commodities

Transocean Adds $445 Million Backlog With Petrobras Drillship Deal

Transocean (RIG) said Tuesday it secured about $445 million in additional backlog after extending a drillship contract with Petrobras (PBR) through November 2030.The company said its Deepwater Corcovado rig received a 1,156-day extension from Petrobras, allowing it to continue its current work and adding significant long-term revenue visibility.Before the new contract begins in September 2027, backlog will decline by about $20 million over a 525-day period starting in April 2026, partially offsetting the total increase, according to the company.Price: $6.40, Change: $-0.24, Percent Change: -3.61%

$PBR$RIG
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Lean Lower Premarket Tuesday

Energy stocks were leaning lower premarket Tuesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) declining by 0.9%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was down 1.2% and The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.6% higher.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 3% lower at $96.08 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil fell 1.5% to $97.91 per barrel, and natural gas futures were up 0.1% at $2.63 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Chevron (CVX) said it agreed to an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela via its subsidiaries in the country to consolidate its heavy oil position. Chevron stock was down more than 1% pre-bell.BP (BP) said its Q1 upstream production is expected to be "broadly flat" from the previous quarter, while cautioning that energy market volatility may pressure results and widen price fluctuations. BP shares were 0.4% higher premarket.Transocean (RIG) said its Deepwater Corcovado drillship was awarded a 1,156-day contract extension with Petrobras (PBR) through November 2030. Petrobras shares were down more than 1% pre-bell.

$BP$CVX$PBR$RIG$UNG$USO$XLE

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