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Commodities

China's Crude Imports Hit Multi-Year Low as Refining Activity Eases, TPH Says

China's crude oil imports fell in May to 7.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since October 2017, as disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and weaker refining economics weighed on demand, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Tuesday.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said crude arrivals dropped to 7.8 million b/d, down from 9.4 million b/d in April, 11.8 million in March, and 12.6 million in February.The May figure marks the weakest level since October 2017, reflecting what TPH analysts described as a pullback in demand following disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict.The decline in feedstock availability has filtered through to refinery operations.TPH said state-owned refiners saw utilization rates drop to 67% in May from 70% in April, and significantly lower than 78% in March and 82% in February.Meanwhile, the bank said independent "teapot" refiners were more resilient but still eased to 54% from 55% over the same period. Early June data suggests utilization holding at 67% for state-run plants and slipping further to 51% for teapots.Blair said that Chinese refiners are increasingly operating under margin pressure, with elevated crude costs contributing to reported losses across parts of the sector.Despite weaker run rates, China's net refined product exports rose modestly to 489,000 b/d in May from 320,000 b/d in April. However, TPH said that the composition of those exports appears to have shifted. April data suggest shipments were skewed toward jet fuel and fuel oil, with minimal volumes of gasoline and diesel.On the margin side, TPH said that refining economics remain relatively supportive in Asia. Singapore 2-1-1 refining cracks eased to $42 per barrel so far in June, down from $45 in May and a recent peak of $68 in April, though still elevated versus March levels of $59.TPH analysts said the sustained strength in Singapore cracks is most directly supportive of US refiner PBF Energy (PBF), which remains a key beneficiary within its coverage universe.Price: $40.35, Change: $-2.02, Percent Change: -4.77%

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Commodities

Refiners Slide as US-Iran Peace Hopes Pressure Crack Spreads, TPH Energy Says

Refining equities and product crack spreads declined last week as reports of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations pressured margins and softened sector sentiment, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said the refining group fell 1.3%, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.9% gain, with high-beta names leading losses.PBF Energy (PBF) dropped 4.9%, while Phillips 66 (PSX) outperformed the group with a 1.6% rise, making it the lone notable gainer among diversified refiners.TPH said the decline was driven by a sharp compression in refined product cracks. US gasoline cracks fell $12 to $25 per barrel, while US diesel cracks declined $7 to $45/bbl.Regional softness was most pronounced in the Midwest, Midcontinent and Rockies, TPH analysts said, reflecting broad-based margin pressure.International cracks were mixed. Northwest Europe gasoline and diesel eased by $1 and $3/bbl, respectively, while Singapore markets moved against the trend, with gasoline up $3/bbl and diesel rising $5/bbl.Forward curves also reflected the softer tone. The 2026 gasoline strip moved $1 lower, while diesel was unchanged.On the crude side, the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $3/bbl from $5 previously, reducing a key advantage for US refiners that benefit from discounted domestic crude.Blair said grades, including Mars, Louisiana Light Sweet and Bakken crude strengthened, while Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Mexico's Maya crude and Alaska North Slope held largely steady.Macro and industry developments added to the mixed backdrop. US regular gasoline prices eased 5 cents to $4.45 per gallon. India raised retail gasoline prices in response to war-related supply dynamics involving Iran.Kuwait's refinery throughput has reportedly fallen by half since the Middle East conflict began, while US jet fuel production has climbed above 2 million barrels per day in recent weeks.On corporate activity, Delek US Holdings (DK) disclosed a $100 million share repurchase authorization from REH. However, despite the recent pullback in refining equities, TPH said most refiners continue to trade above their three-year average forward EBITDA valuation multiples, except for Phillips 66 and Valero Energy (VLO).

$DK$PBF$PSX$VLO
Equities

PBF Energy Prices $500 Million Notes Offering

PBF Energy (PBF) has priced $500 million of 7.25% senior notes due 2034 in a private offering, the company said late Tuesday.The notes will be co-issued with PBF Energy's subsidiary PBF Holding, the company said, adding that PBF Holding intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund the redemption in full of its outstanding 6% senior notes due 2028.The offering is slated to close on Thursday, the company added.Shares of the company were up 1.1% in after-hours activity.

$PBF
Equities

PBF Energy Plans $500 Million Senior Notes Offering Due 2034

PBF Energy's (PBF) subsidiary PBF Holding plans to offer $500 million of senior notes due 2034 in a private placement, the company said Tuesday.The company said the proceeds, together with cash on hand, will be used to fully redeem its 6.00% senior notes due 2028.

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Commodities

Refiner Capital Returns Slip in Q1 as Crude Rally Pressures Free Cash Flow, TPH Says

US refiners delivered a softer but still solid quarter for shareholder returns in Q1, as rising crude prices and higher equity valuations pressured free cash flow and reduced buyback activity, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Friday.The average total capital return yield across refiners eased to 4.9% in Q1 from 6.3% in the prior quarter and 9.4% a year ago, the bank said. Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said the decline was driven largely by lower share repurchases and slightly reduced dividend yields.Share buybacks averaged a 2.8% yield, down from 4% in Q4 and 6.2% a year earlier, as higher crude prices and seasonal factors weighed on free cash flow. TPH said that half of the refiners in its coverage universe generated negative free cash flow in the quarter.Dividend yields also slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in Q4 and 3.2% a year ago, despite dividend increases from Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), reflecting higher average share prices during the period.Blair said among individual names, the strongest total capital return yields in Q1 were led by Par Pacific (PARR) at 9.2%, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at 7%, HF Sinclair (DINO) at 6.8%, and Valero Energy (VLO) at 6.1%. CVR Energy (CVI) was the only refiner that did not return capital during the quarter.Going ahead, TPH expects average total capital return yields to ease further to about 4.5% in Q2, despite what it described as robust profitability and free cash flow generation.The bank identified three main headwinds, including higher share prices, reduced opportunistic buybacks at Par Pacific, and a shift among some refiners, such as Phillips 66 and PBF Energy (PBF), toward debt reduction rather than share repurchases.TPH projects that Valero will lead total capital return yields in Q2 at an estimated 8.1%, followed by HF Sinclair at 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum at 6.7%.CVR Energy is expected to lag its peer group, with a projected yield of 1.1%, even as the energy firm moves to reinstate its dividend.Price: $176.42, Change: $+2.37, Percent Change: +1.36%

$CVI$DINO$MPC$PBF$PSX$VLO
Commodities

PBF Energy's Martinez Refinery Nears Full Recovery After Fire Damage Repairs

US oil refiner PBF Energy (PBF) expects to ramp up output at its Martinez refinery to "full planned rates" by early May, a feat it says has taken a year of exhaustive work after a fire and which now positions it to increase product supply at a time of growing market need, it said in its Q1 earnings report on Thursday.The company's other refineries had operated satisfactorily during the first quarter, which began with a period of severe cold in January that made operations more difficult. It also completed a turnaround at its Torrance refinery during the Jan-March period.The company is optimizing refining operations overall through an improvement initiative that is yielding improvements to cost structure, it said.A turbulent quarter for refineries at the start of the year looks likely to persist in the near term but refining fundamentals look strong at a time of tight supply-demand balances, PBF said.The company expects most of the repair work following the fire at the Martinez plant will be covered by insurance while it must contribute a deductible of $30 million, it said.The company expects to refine between 850,000 and 910,000 barrels of oil per day at its various facilities in Q2, it said.The SBR refinery produced an average 16,700 barrels of renewable diesel per day in Q1, a volume which is likely to decrease to between 15,000 and 16,000 barrels in Q2.The company's East Coast Refining System comprised of Delaware City and Paulsboro facilities produced 302,700 barrels of refined products in Q1, up from 258,400 a year earlier.The mid-continent Toledo facility produced 145,200 barrels of product, up from 139,100 barrels in Q1 2025.The Chalmette refinery on the Gulf Coast produced 187,500 barrels of product in Q1 versus 158,900 a year prior.Torrance and Martinez refineries on the West Coast produced a total of 205,800 barrels of products, up from 176,300 in Q1, 2025, the earnings report said.Price: $43.99, Change: $+0.85, Percent Change: +1.98%

$PBF
Equities

PBF Energy Q1 Adjusted Loss Narrows, Revenue Rises; Declares Dividend

PBF Energy (PBF) reported a Q1 adjusted loss Thursday of $0.88 per diluted share, narrowing from a loss of $3.09 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected a loss of $0.80.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $7.90 billion, up from $7.07 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $7.32 billion.The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, payable on May 29 to shareholders of record on May 14.Shares of PBF were down 3.2% in Thursday premarket activity.

$PBF
Wire

Refining Margins Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Anytime Soon, Morgan Stanley Says

Refining margins are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels anytime soon, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, due to refinery damage, the time required to normalize trade flows, and the need to rebuild inventories, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Friday note to clients.Analysts said first-quarter financial results for refining companies will be pressured by lower capture rates amid still-tight crude differentials, planned and unplanned maintenance, and derivative headwinds, partially offset by stronger secondary products.Morgan Stanley said near-term U.S. refining margins have roughly doubled since the start of the Iran conflict and now sit near levels last reached in 2022 and 2023.On Phillips 66 (PSX), analysts upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.They said the chemicals business is a key factor that sets the company apart from the rest of the sector, with earnings from the segment expected to rise to about $1.1 billion from $352 million. They also raised the price target to $174 from $147.Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and raised its price target to $233 from $200. It also maintained an overweight rating on HF Sinclair (DINO) and increased its price target to $66 from $57.On Valero Energy (VLO), Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and raised the price target to $222 from $182. It also maintained an equal-weight rating on Delek US Holdings (DK) and raised its price target to $40 from $38.On PBF Energy (PBF), Morgan Stanley maintained an underweight rating and raised the price target to $34 from $27.Price: $224.00, Change: $+2.90, Percent Change: +1.31%

$DINO$DK$MPC$PBF$PSX$VLO
Equities

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on PBF Energy to $34 From $27, Keeps Underweight Rating

PBF Energy (PBF) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $42.92, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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