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Mining & Metals

Update: Keyera Provides Business Update, 2026 Outlook Following Plains Asset Acquisition

(Adds analyst comment in paragraphs 11 and 12. Updates shares.)Keyera (KEY.TO) was last seen down 2.5% after the company on Monday provided a business update and multi-year growth outlook after the company closed its $5.15-billion acquisition of Plains All-American Pipeline's (PAA) Canadian natural-gas liquids assetsKeyera expects fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share to increase by about 35% or an approximate 16% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2027.The growth targets reflect the contributions from the Plains acquisition, realization of near-term synergies, 2026 fractionation capacity expansions, and continued filling of available capacity across the integrated system.Keyera is also targeting a 7% to 8% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share CAGR from 2027 to 2029, supported by continued filling of available capacity, completion of major growth projects and further optimization of the combined platform.The outlook is supported by strong basin fundamentals, with oil, natural gas and NGL production across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin expected to continue growing as export-market access expands and global demand for Canadian energy products increases.Keyera has realized its initial $100 million annual run-rate near-term synergy target, with about $90 million in corporate cost savings already captured since the Plains transaction was announced in June 2025.As a result, Keyera now expects total near-term annual run-rate synergies to range from $120 million to $140 million, expected to be realized within the first 12 months after deal closing.With the addition of Plains Marketing business, Keyera's platform now includes frac-spread exposure, which represents another important source of liquids supply for the company's integrated system.Keyera expects its Marketing's realized margin to be between $360 to $390 million in 2026.Taking into account the partial-year contribution of Plains assets, 2026 growth capital spending is expected at $550 million to $625 million and maintenance capital at $240 million to $260 million.National Bank Financial reiterated its sector-perform rating on Keyera shares and its $56.00 price target following the update."Based on the upsized synergy expectations combined with incorporating the recently announced ACE Rail Terminal investment, we expect a bump to our valuation. Meanwhile, we view the company's pro forma 7-8% fee-based adj. EBITDA per share CAGR for 2027-2029 as providing further support for the stock," analyst Patrick Kenny wrote.Keyera shares were last seen down $1.47 to $57.54 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $57.76, Change: $-0.71, Percent Change: -1.21%

$KEY.TO$PAA
Research

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Plains All American Pipeline to Neutral From Sell, Raises Price Target to $24 From $18

Plains All American (PAA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $23.71, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$PAA
Oil & Energy

Crude, NGL Firms See Firmer Q2 Outlook on Exports, Pricing Tailwinds, TPH Says

Midstream energy companies focusing on natural gas liquids and crude logistics are heading into Q2 on a constructive note, buoyed by robust volume growth, elevated commodity prices, and soaring exports, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note on Wednesday.TPH Energy Research strategists said the observations were based on industry interactions at the Energy Infrastructure Council conference.AJ O'Donnell, analyst at TPH Energy, said a key driver for the optimistic outlook is the strengthening of liquefied petroleum gas and NGL export fundamentals.O'Donnell said midstream executives said rising engagement with global buyers, especially from Asia, who are increasingly prioritizing supply diversity and security.The soaring demand comes as the market grapples with the impact of prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. The urgent demand for alternative supply routes has shifted the industry's focus toward infrastructure expansions.TPH said while several new export dock projects are already scheduled to come online over the next few years, executives are focused on the "next wave" of capacity expansions and additional brownfield opportunities.Targa Resources (TRGP) is seeing significant optionality at its Galena Park asset, with potential expansions expected to deliver improving economics as fixed costs are spread across a larger throughput base.The energy firm noted that incremental expansions at the site would yield progressively stronger economics as fixed operational costs are distributed across a larger volume base.Optimism also extended into the crude logistics sector, where Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) is re-evaluating its strategic footprint.Following its recent divestiture of certain NGL assets, the energy firm's management is focusing heavily on organic growth opportunities across its extensive pipeline network connecting the Permian Basin to the US Gulf Coast.Meanwhile, US midstream infrastructure firms are witnessing a robust pipeline of natural gas and power-related projects alongside strengthening demand trends across North America.Kinder Morgan (KMI) is advancing its Gulf Coast Express expansion project, which is expected to come online this quarter, while also progressing its Tennessee Gas Pipeline expansion, originally sized at about 500 million cubic feet per day.Trident Energy also continues to scale its development portfolio, targeting 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of capacity in 2027 and a further 0.5 Bcf/d in 2028, with major contract awards expected to begin in late 2027.DT Midstream (DTM) reported rising Northeast US demand, with its management pointing to about 7.5 Bcf/d of largely utility-scale demand, and noting potential upside from emerging modular power requirements.TPH Energy strategists said the energy firm also highlighted the flexibility of its Midwest Incremental Supply Transportation project, which can source gas from both the Northeast and western supply basins via interconnected pipeline networks.Energy Transfer (ET) said it continues to see strong demand across its system, particularly in the Permian Basin and around Abilene, Texas, where it is positioning itself as a key provider of redundancy and integrated gas services.The company also noted uncertainty around uncontracted "behind-the-pipe" gas volumes, though such volumes remain contractually protected in the near term.On the gas distribution side, Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) plans to grow its base business by 3% to 4% while expanding its power build-out ambitions, citing a 2-gigawatt development pipeline, supported by equipment-sourcing capacity and continued inbound interest in additional megawatt-scale projects.Meanwhile, Cheniere Energy (LNG) continues to advance its Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass liquefaction expansions, Van Everen said, with sufficient commercial agreements in place to support much of the two-train development.Once completed, the projects are expected to add about 6 million metric tons per annum of LNG capacity, with the firm targeting long-term contracted levels near historical averages of about 90%.Elsewhere, Excelerate Energy (EE) pointed to project opportunities in Jamaica, Vietnam and India, as the company looks to deploy floating LNG infrastructure to support emerging gas import markets.Price: $33.66, Change: $-0.65, Percent Change: -1.89%

$DTM$EE$ET$KGS$KMI$LNG$PAA$TRGP
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion On Lp Units Of Plains All America

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Our 12-month target of $25 (up $4) reflects a combination of our relative valuation and DCF model analyses. On a relative basis, we apply an 11.0x multiple of enterprise value to 2027 EBITDA, in line with peers. That approach yields a value of $22 per unit. Our DCF model uses medium-term FCF growth of 4.0% per year, 2.0% terminal growth, discounted at a WACC of 7.7%, and yields a value of $28 per unit. We lift our 2026 earnings per unit estimate by $0.24 to $1.85 and 2027's by $0.23 to $1.98. PAA has technically closed on the sale of its Canadian NGL assets to Keyera Corp. for approximately CAD5.3 billion in cash despite a challenge by the Canadian Competition Bureau. Should the Bureau prevail in court, we think it could demand a post-sale remedy, which might include forcing Keyera to either unwind this recent transaction, or forcing a sale of some or all of the NGL assets to a third party. We continue to see crude oil logistics as PAA's core strategic business.

$PAA
Commodities

Keyera's Gathering, Processing Segment Reports Rise in Q1 Gross Throughput

Canadian energy infrastructure company Keyera on Thursday reported average Q1 gross processing throughput for its gathering and processing segment of 1.752 billion cubic feet per day, up from 1.59 bcf/d in the corresponding quarter last year.Net processing throughput for the segment for the quarter ended March 31 stood at 1.55 bcf/d, up from 1.44 bcf/d in the year-ago period.For its liquids infrastructure segment, the company reported gross processing throughput of 186,000 barrels per day, down from 196,000 b/d in the year-ago period.Net processing throughput for the liquids infrastructure segment was reported at 105,000 b/d, compared with 113,000 b/d in the same quarter last year.In Q1, the marketing segment reported sales volumes of 214,800 b/d, down from 220,800 b/d last year.The company said repairs have been completed at its Alberta EnviroFuels facility following an outage. The company is also completing a six-week turnaround at the plant, originally planned for fall this year.The facility is expected to return to full operating capacity by the end of this month.Keyera further said that it has successfully closed its acquisition of the Canadian natural gas liquids business from Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) and Plains GP (PAGP). The deal was valued at CA$5.15 billion ($3.77 billion) when disclosed in June last year, according to a statement from the sellers then.Price: $22.03, Change: $+0.14, Percent Change: +0.63%

$PAA$PAGP
Research

Research Alert: Paa: Slight Miss In Q1, Strategic Repositioning Almost Complete

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:PAA posted Q1 adjusted earnings per unit of $0.39, missing consensus by $0.03, with adjusted EBITDA of $730M down 3% Y/Y. The Crude Oil segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $582M, up 4% Y/Y, driven by Permian volumes up 10.5%, while the NGL segment declined 23% to $145M due to lower frac spreads and reduced sales volumes. The mixed results highlight PAA's strategic repositioning toward crude oil focus through the pending Canadian NGL divestiture to Keyera. Management raised CY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $2.88B, with the midpoint up $130M or 4.7%. We expect the Keyera deal, fetching ~$3.75B in cash and closing this month, will help address balance sheet concerns as pro forma leverage of 4.1x remains above PAA's target range of 3.25x-3.75x. The strategic repositioning should make PAA a more purely crude oil-focused midstream play while proceeds enable debt reduction from the current $11.6B net debt level.

$PAA
Mining & Metals

Update2: Keyera's Purchase of Plains All American's Natural Gas Liquids Assets Challenged by the Competition Bureau

(Adds Keyera comment on expected closes of the acquisition in paragraph 5; updates shares.)Keyera (KEY.TO) faces official pushback on its $5.15-billion acquisition of Plains All American Pipeline's (PAA) Canadian natural gas liquids assets as the Competition Bureau on Tuesday said it filed an application with the Competition Tribunal challenging the deal.The bureau said in a release it believes "the proposed transaction is likely to harm competition in natural gas liquids processing and storage, particularly at Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, Canada's primary hub for these services".The bureau said the referral to the Tribunal follows on an investigation that concluded the acquisition would eliminate a close competitor in the Fort Saskatchewan market and increase market concentration. It also said the merged company would have the "ability to increase prices, impose less favourable contract terms, reduce incentives to expand capacity, and further entrench control over critical infrastructure".When it first announced the acquisition in July of last year, Keyera said the purchase would add natural-gas liquids fractionation and processing facilities, as well as 23-million barrel of oil storage, 1,500 miles of pipelines and terminal infrastructure in Western Canada and Ontario.In a statement, Keyera said it received a filing from the Competition Bureau shortly before markets opened on Tuesday It said the bureau's challenge does not prevent it from closing the acquisition. It expect to complete the purchase this month.."The Company disagrees with the Commissioner's assertions and characterization of the Transaction, and intends to respond to the application. As the Company has previously advised, the Transaction will strengthen competition across the basin and provide customers with improved access to key markets and greater flexibility in how their products are handled, transported and sold," it said.Keyera shares closed down $3.86 to $49.11 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

$KEY.TO$PAA
Mining & Metals

Update: Keyera's Purchase of Plains All American's Natural Gas Liquids Assets Challenged by the Competition Bureau

(Adds comments from Keyera in paragraphs five and six; updates shares.)Keyera (KEY.TO) faces official pushback on its $5.15-billion acquisition of Plains All American Pipeline's (PAA) Canadian natural gas liquids assets as the Competition Bureau on Tuesday said it filed an application with the Competition Tribunal challenging the deal.The bureau said in a release it believes "the proposed transaction is likely to harm competition in natural gas liquids processing and storage, particularly at Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, Canada's primary hub for these services".The bureau said the referral to the Tribunal follows on an investigation that concluded the acquisition would eliminate a close competitor in the Fort Saskatchewan market and increase market concentration. It also said the merged company would have the "ability to increase prices, impose less favourable contract terms, reduce incentives to expand capacity, and further entrench control over critical infrastructure".When it first announced the acquisition in July of last year, Keyera said the purchase would add natural-gas liquids fractionation and processing facilities, as well as 23-million barrel of oil storage, 1,500 miles of pipelines and terminal infrastructure in Western Canada and Ontario.In a statement, Keyera said it received a filing from the Competition Bureau shortly before markets opened on Tuesday It said the bureau's challenge does not prevent it from closing the acquisition and disagreed with the claims."The Company disagrees with the Commissioner's assertions and characterization of the Transaction, and intends to respond to the application. As the Company has previously advised, the Transaction will strengthen competition across the basin and provide customers with improved access to key markets and greater flexibility in how their products are handled, transported and sold," it said.Keyera shares were last seen down $2.17 to $50.80 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $50.76, Change: $-2.21, Percent Change: -4.17%

$KEY.TO$PAA
Mining & Metals

Keyera's Purchase of Plains All American's Natural Gas Liquids Assets Challenged by the Competition Bureau

Keyera (KEY.TO) faces official pushback on its $5.15-billion acquisition of Plains All American Pipeline's (PAA) Canadian natural gas liquids assets as the Competition Bureau on Tuesday said it filed an application with the Competition Tribunal challenging the deal.The bureau said in a release it believes "the proposed transaction is likely to harm competition in natural gas liquids processing and storage, particularly at Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, Canada's primary hub for these services".The bureau said the referral to the Tribunal follows on an investigation that concluded the acquisition would eliminate a close competitor in the Fort Saskatchewan market and increase market concentration. It also said the merged company would have the "ability to increase prices, impose less favourable contract terms, reduce incentives to expand capacity, and further entrench control over critical infrastructure".When it first announced the acquisition in July of last year, Keyera said the purchase would add natural-gas liquids fractionation and processing facilities, as well as 23-million barrel of oil storage, 1,500 miles of pipelines and terminal infrastructure in Western Canada and Ontario.Keyera could not be immediately reached for comment.Keyera were last seen down $3.50 to $49.47 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $50.09, Change: $-2.88, Percent Change: -5.44%

$KEY.TO$PAA