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Mining & Metals

Methanex Maintained at Neutral at CIBC Following Q1 Results; Price Target Raised to US$69.00

CIBC Capital Markets reiterated its neutral rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) while raising its price target to US$69.00 from US$66.00 after the methanol producer reported its first-quarter results."We maintain our Neutral rating on Methanex, while raising our price target to $69 (from $66) on a 0.25x increase in our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple (now 7.0x 2027E), reflecting an improved methanol pricing backdrop that should support accelerated deleveraging (1.8x by year-end vs. 4.2x in Q1/26). While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $83 for Methanex," analyst Hamir Patel wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $86.05, Change: $-2.83, Percent Change: -3.18%

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Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$72.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$72.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."We raise our Q2'26 EBITDA outlook to $562mm from $400mm (vs $471mm consensus) after MEOH surprised to the upside at $220mm in Q1 and offered guidance of $500-525/tonne realized margins for Apr-May, a big step up from $351/tonne in Q1. At the midpoint, MEOH's guidance has realized margins improving +$162/tonne q/q, less than the +$206/tonne q/q move in global spot methanol QTD. Typically MEOH's realizations are >100% of spot. However, management noted that due to typical pricing lags between spot and contract, when spot prices surge up, capture will come down. We see this trend in the historical data as well, and would expect MEOH to catch up when methanol prices eventually fall. Other moving parts in Q2 include a greater contribution from the small ammonia business, with prices at $775/tonne vs $450 in Q1, as well as cheaper US feedstock costs with natgas lower q/q. Even if the Strait were to reopen tomorrow, we believe it would take several quarters to normalize on global methanol production and inventories. We also roll in positive revisions to H2 estimates and now have MEOH at a TPHe 27% FCF yield (15% FCF to EV)," analyst Matthew Blair wrote(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $86.20, Change: $-2.68, Percent Change: -3.02%

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Mining & Metals

RBC Lifts Methanex's Price Target to US$70.00 from US$65.00

RBC Capital Markets maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO., MEOH) and raised its price target to US$70.00 from US$65.00 following the Wednesday release of the company's first-quarter results.The higher price target mainly reflects higher methanol prices through 2026, RBC said.Methanex is poised to realize a very strong second quarter as elevated methanol prices hit the bottom line, according to RBC.Based on the company's May 2026 non-discounted methanol price, RBC estimated that the company would generate roughly $1.70 per share of free cash flow per month, which would mainly be allocated to debt reduction, and potentially some share buybacks.However, the main uncertainty is when the Iran conflict will be resolved, and the time it takes for methanol prices to normalize, RBC said.Price: $85.71, Change: $-3.17, Percent Change: -3.57%

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Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$69.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$69.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."Positive. MEOH reported adj Q1'26 EBITDA of $220mm, outpacing TPHe/consensus of $203mm/$208mm as well as Q4 of $186mm. Adj EPS was 30c (vs TPHe/consensus of 18c/38c). The stock is flat in pre-market trading. Relative to our modeling, the beat was driven by a higher realized price of $351/tonne (vs TPHe $337/tonne), likely due to better spot values as methanol prices surged in Mar from the Iran conflict. This was somewhat offset by higher implied costs ($252/tonne vs TPHe $245/tonne). Production (2.39mmt vs TPHe 2.27mmt) was higher than our modeling, thanks to solid rates in Geismar, NZ, and Egypt, but the inventory build was more than we had penciled in, resulting in sales volumes (2.23mmt vs TPHe 2.22mmt) that were inline," analyst Matthew Blair wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $87.61, Change: $+0.96, Percent Change: +1.11%

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Mining & Metals

Methanex Q1 Adjusted Profit Falls 74%, Misses Estimates Despite Higher Revenue

Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) edged down 0.5% in after-hour Nasdaq trade Wednesday as it reported a 74% year-over-year drop in adjusted net income despite higher revenue, with results missing analysts' estimates.The methanol producer posted adjusted net income, excluding most one-time items, of US$23 million, or US$0.30 per share, down from US$88 million, or US$1.30, a year earlier. The result fell short of FactSet's consensus analyst estimate of US$0.40 per share.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 rose 8.7% year over year to US$974 million from US$896 million, but US986.6 million missed FactSet analysts' estimate.Adjusted EBITDA was US$220 million, compared with US$186 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.In its outlook, the company reiterated its expectations for 2026 production to be 9.- million tonnes (Methanex interest) of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia."Based on our April and May posted prices, we expect that our average realized price range will be approximately (US)$500 to (US)$525 per tonne for these two months. Based on a higher realized price and similar sales of produced methanol, we are expecting significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter," Methanex said."This quarter saw the continuation of safe and reliable operations across our portfolio, including at the recently acquired assets in Beaumont, Texas. The conflict in the Middle East has meaningfully impacted global petrochemical supply chains, including methanol, and this has resulted in a rapid and significant increase in global methanol pricing into the second quarter," chief executive Rich Sumner said."We believe our global asset portfolio will allow us to continue providing unmatched reliability of supply to our customers and we remain focused on delivering on our integration plan, cost-effectively operating our assets and supply chain and continuing our de-leveraging efforts while we navigate an evolving and uncertain macro environment," added Sumner.The company said in the first quarter of 2026, it paid a quarterly dividend of $0.185 per common share for a total of $14 million and repaid $60 million of the outstanding Term Loan A.The company's shares were last seen down US$0.31 to US$63.00 after-hours after closing up C$3.95 at C$86.65 on Toronto Stock Exchange.

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Mining & Metals

RBC Reiterates Methanex's Sector-Perform Rating, US$65.00 Price Target

RBC Capital Markets on Wednesday maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) and its US$65.00 price target.Methanex recently released its non-discounted methanol reference prices for May, outlining a 19% increase to $1,480 per tonne for North America and unchanged at $740/mt for Asia Pacific, excluding China.RBC believes the reference prices will have a modestly positive impact on the shares of Methanex, as it implies that the realized methanol price for May will likely be higher than April.Methanex is expected to release its first-quarter results after market close on Wednesday, where investors may focus on management's comments relating to the methanol supply/demand/pricing dynamics particularly in Asia.Investors are also expected to focus on management's update on the outlook for its New Zealand operations.Price: $87.11, Change: $+4.41, Percent Change: +5.33%

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Research

Methanex Price Target Raised to US$66 at CIBC

CIBC Capital Markets raised its price target on Methanex Corp. (MX.TO, MEOH) to US$66 from US$59.Analyst Hamir Patel maintained a Neutral rating on shares of the Canadian methanol company ahead of its Q1 results on April 29."We have raised our 2026/2027 EBITDA estimates by ~55%/19% reflecting our assumptions for a period of higher methanol prices arising from disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East," Patel said in a note to clients."We also reduced our 2027E EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 6.75x (lowered by 1.0x), which follows adjustments in mid-March, when we accounted for the initial impact of the conflict by raising the multiple without increasing our estimates," the analyst said."While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $80 for Methanex."

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