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12 stories mentioning MURUpdated 16d ago

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Oil & Energy

KeyBanc 'Perplexed' by Market Belief in Imminence of US-Iran Peace

Analysts at KeyBanc have expressed some bewilderment at how oil markets are continuing to buy in to claims repeated over many weeks that a peace deal between the US and Iran is around the corner, despite no deal materializing and the foes having resumed missile strikes once again."We are perplexed by the market's willingness to buy into speculation there is an imminent end to the Iran conflict, driven by comments from the administration and Axios, which has seemingly reported 10 of the last zero peace agreements," KeyBanc said in a research note.The analysts have increased their 2026 West Texas Intermediate/Brent outlook and lowered natural gas forecasts "amid oversupplied markets."It takes the view that strikes by Israel in southern Lebanon are unlikely to push Iran to the negotiating table and that it can continue to put pressure on Trump administration as the world goes without one fifth of its usual oil supply."We believe Iran can wait out this growing crisis faced by the rest of the developed world, ratcheting up pressure on the Trump administration, which is likely to diminish any leverage it believes it has and keep oil prices elevated," it said.Its forecast for 2027 WTI is $77 per barrel versus $73 per barrel on March 27. Analysts also raised estimates for 2028 to $72/bbl.KeyBanc upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to overweight with a $48 price target, noting it presents exposure to higher oil prices with half of its estimated 2026 production unhedged.

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Murphy Oil Poised for Cash Flow Uplift Amid High Oil Prices, KeyBanc Says
US Markets

Murphy Oil Poised for Cash Flow Uplift Amid High Oil Prices, KeyBanc Says

Murphy Oil's (MUR) cash flow stands to benefit from higher crude prices, with no end to the Middle East conflict in sight yet, KeyBanc Capital Markets said in a note emailed Thursday.The brokerage has upgraded the West Texas Intermediate outlook to $85 a barrel for this year from $65 at the start of 2026. That should generate incremental cash flows of $666 million for Murphy, which is expected to produce 33.3 million barrels in 2026.None of that production is hedged, which means the oil exploration and production company can sell output at prevailing rates."Profound (cash flow) uplift from unhedged production stream is gamechanger for balance sheet and cash return optionality," KeyBanc analyst Tim Rezvan said.KeyBanc upgraded Murphy's stock to overweight from sector weight, with a $48 price target.The US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, resulting in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While there have been a series of talks following ceasefire deals, the parties are yet to finalize a framework for a long-lasting peace."The growing attacks in Lebanon by Israel appear to be a clear obstacle to a peace deal," Rezvan said. "We strenuously disagree with the view that an imminent agreement between the US and Iran will remove the risk premium that we believe should remain embedded in oil prices for the foreseeable future."Shares of Murphy closed 2% higher on Thursday, and have gained 28% year to date.The company's stock has pulled back 8% from its year-to-date high in April, creating an attractive entry point for investors ahead of second-quarter results, Rezvan said."As physical inventories dwindle and Israel continues attacks in Lebanon, we see upside risks to oil," he said.Price: $40.31, Change: $+1.14, Percent Change: +2.91%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were mixed late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index increasing 0.2% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) 0.1% lower.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index climbed up 1.7%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index rose 0.5%.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3% to $93.11 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 2.7% to $95.18 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures rose 4.7% to $3.37 per 1 million BTU.In sector news, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said waivers allowing countries to buy Russian oil could be granted on a country-by-country basis rather than across the board, Bloomberg reported, citing the official's testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee.In corporate news, Venture Global (VG) shares jumped 5.8% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral and increased its price target to $17 from $16.Expro (XPRO) shares surged past 8% after the company said it has filed its definitive proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its proposed move to redomicile in the Cayman Islands from the Netherlands.Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) is expected to continue to expand capacity despite facing a tight supply chain in the near term, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Morgan Stanley kept its overweight rating and increased its price target to $90 from $81. Solaris shares rose 3%.Murphy Oil (MUR) shares rose 2.3% after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight.

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Wire

Murphy Oil Shares Rise After KeyBanc Upgrade

Murphy Oil (MUR) shares rose 3% in Thursday trading after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight, with a price target of $48 per share.Trading volume stood at over 1.2 million shares compared with a daily average of about 2.3 million.Price: $40.33, Change: $+1.16, Percent Change: +2.95%

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Edge Higher Thursday Afternoon

Energy stocks were slightly higher Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index increasing 0.1% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) adding 0.2%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index climbed 1.3%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index increased 0.1%.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 4% to $92.18 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 3.2% to $94.64 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures rose 4.2% to $3.35 per 1 million BTU.In sector news, Hezbollah on Thursday rejected the latest ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as more fighting there hampered efforts to end the Iran war, the Associated Press reported. This comes as the House on Wednesday approved a war powers resolution that would halt US military action against Iran, according to a separate Associated Press report.Separately, President Donald Trump is set to announce $500 million in federal funding to support domestic coal-fired power plants and a coal export terminal, invoking the 1950 Defense Production Act, Bloomberg reported. The plan includes $425 million for 13 existing coal plants and separate Energy Department grants for two new plants in Alaska and West Virginia, Bloomberg said.In corporate news, Murphy Oil (MUR) shares rose 2.8% after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight.Expro (XPRO) shares jumped past 6% after the company said it has filed its definitive proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its proposed move to redomicile in the Cayman Islands from the Netherlands.Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) is expected to continue to expand capacity despite facing a tight supply chain in the near term, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating on the stock and increased its price target to $90 from $81. Solaris shares rose 1.9%.

$MUR$SEI$XPRO
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy

Energy stocks advanced Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) each adding about 0.4%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index climbed up 1.4%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index increased 0.2%.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3.8% to $92.37 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract dropped 3.2% to $94.72 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures rose 4.5% to $3.36 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Murphy Oil (MUR) shares rose 3% after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight from sector weight.

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Research

KeyBanc Upgrades Murphy Oil to Overweight From Sector Weight, Price Target is $48

Murphy Oil (MUR) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $44.75, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Opinion On Shares Of Murphy Oil Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price by $2 to $31, reflecting a combination of our DCF and relative valuation models. On a relative basis, we apply a 4.0x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA, slightly below peers, but we think a discounted multiple is reasonable, as we see a narrower surplus of operating cash flow to handle capex requirements than do most peers. This approach yields a value of $26 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using medium-term free cash flow growth of 4% per year, terminal growth of 2%, discounted at a WACC of 6.1%, yields intrinsic value of $37 per share. We lift our 2026 EPS estimate by $2.56 to $3.89 but lower 2027's by $0.18 to $1.85. We see possible risk in 2027 from a commodity price downturn, which could crimp growth in capex spending, or growth in returns to shareholders. Our estimates for 2027 are a fair bit lower than consensus, which has less to do with company-specific factors, and more to do with our take on the macroeconomic view of crude oil prices.

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Commodities

Murphy Oil Q1 Hydrocarbon Output Exceeds Guidance

Murphy Oil (MUR) Wednesday said its Q1 hydrocarbon production of 174,236 barrels of oil equivalent per day exceeded guidance due to strong performance in the Eagle Ford Shale and high uptime in the Gulf of Mexico, recognized by the US as the Gulf of America.The quarterly production excludes noncontrolling interest of MP Gulf of Mexico, which is 80% owned by Murphy Oil. The Q1 output is higher relative to year-ago levels of 157,220 boe/d.Murphy Oil said 15 wells in the Eagle Ford Shale were brought online during the period, boosting the 60-day cumulative oil production by 17% compared with the previous year's levels.Accordingly, sales volume grew year over year to 173,354 boe/d from 157,996 boe/d.The company reported that its Q1 revenue from US exploration and production rose to $575.5 million during the period, versus $509.5 million in the same quarter of 2025.In Canada, however, it generated $155.2 million in revenue, down from the prior year's $165.7 million.Murphy Oil projects its net production in Q2 to average between 161,000 boe/d and 169,000 boe/d, with full-year guidance ranging from 167,000 boe/d to 175,000 boe/d.

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Research

Research Alert: Mur: Free Cash Flow Turned Positive In Q1

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:MUR posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.32, beating consensus of $0.31 by $0.01 but declining from $0.56 in the prior year due to significantly higher exploration expenses of $82.8M versus $14.5M. Production of 174,200 boe/d exceeded guidance of 172,000 boe/d, driven by Eagle Ford outperformance and strong offshore uptime, while oil production of 87,200 b/d also beat expectations and revenue increased 8.9% to $732.4M. The quarter marked a positive inflection with free cash flow turning positive and adjusted EBITDAX rising 31.9% to $465.7M, demonstrating strong operational performance despite higher exploration costs in Cote d'Ivoire and Vietnam. Capital spending of $465M came in below the $540M guidance midpoint due to phasing of exploration costs to later in the year. Key development milestones remain on track, with Chinook #8 spud targeting 15,000 boe/d in H2 26, Vietnam Lac Da Vang first oil expected Q4 26, and newly approved Banjo/Cello fields targeting Q4 27 first oil.

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Wire

Murphy Oil Q1 Adjusted Earnings Fall, Revenue Rises

Murphy Oil (MUR) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Wednesday of $0.32 per diluted share, down from $0.56 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $0.32.Revenue in the three months ended March 31 rose to $733.6 million from $665.2 million a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $703 million.Murphy shares fell 2.3% in after-hours trading.

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Wire

UBS Raises Murphy Oil Price Target to $44 From $43, Maintains Neutral Rating

Murphy Oil (MUR) has an average rating of Hold and mean price target of $40.63, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $37.28, Change: $-0.35, Percent Change: -0.93%

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