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Wire

Molina Healthcare Facing Marketplace, Medicaid Headwinds, RBC Says

Molina Healthcare (MOH) is facing headwinds in its Marketplace insurance business and uncertainty related to longer term Medicaid rate recovery, RBC Capital Markets said in a Thursday note.Investors remain concerned over Medicaid rate recovery as new regulations significantly tightened the health program's funding mechanisms, RBC said. Medicaid was among the key drivers of Molina's Q2 beat, with an adjusted EPS of $1.51 on revenue of $10.87 billion, according to the brokerage.Marketplace continues to be a near-term overhang and is now seen generating a 2026 loss of $0.75 per share, a $1.50 reduction from prior guidance, RBC said. Molina plans to reduce Marketplace exposure $1.5 billion in 2027, from the current $2.50 billion run rate, RBC added.RBC cut its price target on Molina Healthcare to $218 from $248, with a sector perform rating.Price: $195.92, Change: $-4.37, Percent Change: -2.18%

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Wire

Molina Healthcare Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Fall; Shares Drop After Hours

Molina Healthcare (MOH) reported Q2 adjusted EPS late Wednesday of $1.51 per diluted share, down from $5.48 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.39.Revenue in the three months ended June 30 fell to $10.87 billion from $11.43 billion a year earlier.Analysts expected $10.83 billion.The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to at least $5.25, up from the previous forecast of at least $5, and reiterated premium-revenue guidance of $42 billion.Analysts expect EPS of $5.14 and premium revenue of $42.1 billion.Molina shares fell 6.2% in after-hours trading.

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Wire

Molina Healthcare's Near-Term Path Remains Visible Despite Medicaid Rate Concerns, RBC Says

Molina Healthcare (MOH) has a clear path to earnings growth through 2027, supported by the reversal of Florida CMS startup costs, the exit from Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug plans and operating leverage from about $6 billion of new revenue, RBC Capital said in a Tuesday note.The analyst said management expects at least $4.50 per share in embedded 2027 earnings and RBC's 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $9.60 is broadly in line with the company's outlook.At its 2026 Investor Day, Molina projected adjusted EPS of $25 and premium revenue of $64 billion by 2029, with upside to $30 per share if medical costs ease and rates improve more quickly, and downside to $20 per share if cost pressures persist, according to the report.The firm said achieving the 2029 target hinges largely on Medicaid rate recovery, with about $7.25 per share of expected earnings growth assuming improved reimbursement rates and a 5% medical cost trend.RBC initiated coverage of the stock with a sector perform rating and a price target of $216.Molina Healthcare shares were down 1.8% in Tuesday trading.Price: $193.82, Change: $-3.60, Percent Change: -1.82%

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Research

RBC Initiates Molina Healthcare at Sector Perform With $216 Price Target

Molina Healthcare (MOH) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $187.41, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

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Wire

UnitedHealth, CVS, Cigna Seen Benefiting From Utilization Trends, AI Upside, Morgan Stanley Says

UnitedHealth (UNH), CVS Health (CVS) and Cigna (CI) are among the managed-care companies that could benefit from improving utilization trends and potential artificial intelligence-driven efficiency gains across the healthcare system, Morgan Stanley said in a note Thursday.The firm said early signs of softer utilization have supported recent gains in managed-care stocks. The group has delivered a series of medical-loss-ratio beats in Q1 and some companies raising guidance. However, it noted that investors are still awaiting clearer confirmation of underlying trends and utilization signals remaining mixed ahead of Q2 results.AI adoption is increasingly embedded across managed-care operations, including prior authorization, call centers, provider portals, care management, pharmacy utilization and payment integrity.Morgan Stanley said UnitedHealth stands out as a leading "AI enabler," particularly through Optum Insight initiatives, which support both efficiency gains and potential revenue upside.The firm's scenario analysis assumes 0.5% to 2.0% AI-driven insurance margin expansion, which could translate into an illustrative 18% to 71% EPS upside across managed-care companies. It added that administrative workflows, particularly prior authorization, remain key areas of automation potential.Morgan Stanley boosted its price targets on UnitedHealth, CVS Health, Elevance Health (ELV), Centene (CNC), Molina Healthcare (MOH), and Humana (HUM).Price: $399.90, Change: $+22.90, Percent Change: +6.07%

$CI$CNC$CVS$ELV$HUM$MOH$UNH
Wire

Centene, Molina Have 'Compelling' EPS Upside Potential as Medicaid Margins Likely Improve 2027 Onwards, BofA Says

Centene (CNC) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) have "compelling" EPS upside potential and could see their EPS jump four to six times higher by 2029, considering that Medicaid margins are likely bottoming in 2026, BofA Securities said in a Thursday note.BofA analysts said they expect Medicaid margins to improve as state data catches up to trends and changes in the risk pool, which should boost rates and margins in 2027 and onwards. Centene's 2026 EPS guidance of $3.40 is only about 30% of its current EPS power, while Molina's EPS guidance of $5 is only 17% of its current EPS power.If both companies can return to just the low end of their long-term Medicaid margin targets by 2029, their EPS should be up four to six times from 2026 guidance, the analysts said.Medicaid margin normalization is a historical pattern of slow but eventual catching up of rates, as states have an incentive to pay target margins to managed care organizations running Medicaid programs, but they take their time in doing so to avoid overpaying, the analysts said. Thus, they are confident that Medicaid margins will rebound in 2027.BofA kept the Centene's stock rating at buy and raised the price target to $72 from $60, as well as maintained Molina's stock rating at buy and price target at $250.Price: $57.99, Change: $-0.29, Percent Change: -0.50%

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Insider Trading

Molina Healthcare Insider Sold Shares Worth $3,314,983, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Jeff D. Barlow, Chief Legal Officer, on May 11, 2026, sold 17,811 shares in Molina Healthcare (MOH) for $3,314,983. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Barlow has control over a total of 67,175 common shares of the company, with 67,175 shares held directly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179929/000155560326000004/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1778704585.xml

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Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Molina Healthcare to $180 From $151, Maintains Neutral Rating

Molina Healthcare (MOH) has an average rating of hold and mean price target of $155, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $171.44, Change: $-3.24, Percent Change: -1.85%

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Rating On Shares Of Molina Healthcare Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month price target to $190 from $165, a 13.1x multiple of our 2026 EV/EBITDA estimates, compared to MOH's five-year historical forward average of 9.2x. On a forward P/E basis, our target reflects a 38.3x multiple, well-above the 16.1x five-year historical average. We attribute some of MOH's valuation premium, across various metrics, to distortion from a depressed earnings profile, which should correct toward normalized levels in the coming years as profitability recovers, in our view. Despite a surprising Q1 EPS beat, MOH reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance of approximately $42B in premium revenue and at least $5.00 in adjusted EPS. We think near-term visibility is low given impending headwinds from Medicaid funding cuts under the OBBBA legislation. We anticipate a more comprehensive look at forward guidance during the scheduled Investor Day on May 8, 2026, as well as the Q2 earnings call in July. We cut our 2026 EPS to $4.96 (from $5.03) and raised our 2027 EPS to $8.54 (from $7.71).

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Sectors

Sector Update: Health Care Stocks Edge Lower Late Afternoon

Health care stocks were softer late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Health Care Index and the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) each easing about 0.1%.The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 1.8%.In sector news, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche signed an order Thursday reclassifying state-licensed medical cannabis as a less-dangerous drug, the Associated Press reported, citing a statement from Blanche.In corporate news, Molina Healthcare (MOH) shares jumped more than 12% after the firm reported Q1 adjusted EPS that beat market expectations in the previous day.Grace Therapeutics (GRCE) tumbled 46% after the US Food and Drug Administration issued a complete response letter for its new drug application for GTx-104, an intravenous formulation of nimodipine for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) raised its full-year outlook as Q1 results came in stronger than expected, but organic growth fell short of analysts' estimates. Its shares fell 9.5%.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) has struck a deal with the Trump administration to reduce drug costs for certain Americans and has secured approval for a gene therapy to treat a rare form of deafness, Bloomberg reported. Regeneron gained 2.5%.

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Wire

Update: Molina Healthcare Shares Climb After Q1 Adjusted Earnings Beat

(Updates with the latest stock move in the headline and in the first paragraph.)Molina Healthcare (MOH) shares were up more than 12% in Thursday afternoon trading, a day after the company reported Q1 adjusted earnings that topped analysts' expectations.The company reported quarterly adjusted earnings late Wednesday of $2.35 per diluted share, down from $6.08 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.90.Revenue for the three months ended March 31 was $10.80 billion, down from $11.15 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $10.87 billion.For full-year 2026, the company reaffirmed adjusted EPS outlook of at least $5.00 on premium revenue of about $42 billion. Analysts expect EPS of $4.96 on premium revenue of $43.04 billion.Price: $171.60, Change: $+18.60, Percent Change: +12.15%

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Research

Research Alert: Molina Healthcare: Q1 Eps Beats, Guidance Maintained

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Molina Healthcare reported mixed Q1 results, with adjusted EPS of $2.35 declining 61% Y/Y but beating the $1.94 consensus estimate. Revenue of $10.8B missed consensus by ~0.8%, with premium revenues down 4% due to membership losses that reduced total membership to 5.0M from 5.8M. We believe the largest membership losses in Marketplace reflect MOH's pricing and strategic portfolio adjustments, as well as industry pressure from ACA enhanced premium tax credit expiration. MOH reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of approximately $42B in premium revenue and at least $5.00 in adjusted EPS. Elevated medical costs continue pressuring results, with consolidated MCR deteriorating to 91.1% from 89.2% in the prior year, though Medicaid's 92.0% ratio was viewed favorably by management relative to expectations. We anticipate more comprehensive forward guidance during the Investor Day on May 8 and Q2 results in July. We expect MOH will face headwinds from Medicaid membership reductions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

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Wire

Molina Healthcare Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Fall

Molina Healthcare (MOH) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Wednesday of $2.35 per diluted share, down from $6.08 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.90.Revenue for the three months ended March 31 was $10.80 billion, down from $11.15 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $10.87 billion.For full-year 2026, the company reaffirmed adjusted EPS outlook of at least $5.00 on premium revenue of about $42 billion. Analysts expect EPS of $4.96 on premium revenue of $43.04 billion.

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