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Commodities

Methanex Lowers August Methanol Contract Prices Across Asia, TPH Says

Methanex (MEOH) lowered its Asia Pacific August methanol contract price to $550 per metric ton from $620/mt in July as weaker spot prices weighed on the market, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.TPH said Asia Pacific spot methanol prices have fallen about $122/mt over the month, driving the contract price lower from $740/mt in Q2. The decline largely matched market expectations.The firm said Asia Pacific spot prices rebounded about $30/mt last week as oil prices strengthened during the renewed US-Iran conflict. Spot prices also remain well above the 2021 to 2025 average of $415/mt.Methanex also rolled over its August China methanol contract at $525/mt, compared with $603/mt in Q2. TPH said China spot methanol prices have declined about $53/mt over the month.North American August contract prices remain pending, while US spot methanol prices have fallen about $61/mt over the month. Even so, US spot methanol margins continue to hold at fresh five-year highs.The firm estimated North American contract prices could decline about $70/mt in August, bringing its projected global average contract price to about $940/mt in Q2 from $975/mt in Q2.Price: $53.51, Change: $-0.67, Percent Change: -1.24%

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Commodities

Chemical Prices Gain as US-Iran Fighting Resumes, TPH Says

Prices for several key chemicals climbed last week as renewed fighting between the US and Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled supply concerns, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said on Tuesday.US polyethylene prices rose 4 cents per pound to 44 cents/lb after trading within 1 cent of pre-conflict levels over the previous two weeks. Demand may also have been supported by stronger US consumer spending, with June retail and food services sales increasing 7% year over year.US methanol prices gained $20 per tonne to $451/tonne, extending their premium to $116/tonne above pre-conflict levels. Blair said several Iranian utility suppliers that were damaged during the earlier phase of the conflict in the second quarter have yet to resume normal operations. He said it was a factor expected to constrain the country's methanol production.MTBE posted the strongest gains, rising 30 cents to $3.41 per gallon, leaving prices $1.30/gal above pre-conflict levels. The increase comes as China's MTBE operating rates have declined in recent weeks due to planned maintenance, tightening supply.The price moves are broadly positive for major chemical producers. Higher polyethylene prices are supportive for Dow (DOW), LyondellBasell (LYB), and Westlake (WLK), while stronger methanol prices benefit Methanex (MEOH) and LyondellBasell. Higher MTBE prices also provide an earnings tailwind for LyondellBasell.Price: $31.07, Change: $+0.70, Percent Change: +2.29%

$DOW$LYB$MEOH$WLK
Wire

Methanex Likely Past Peak Methanol Pricing as Iran Tensions Ease, RBC Says

Methanex (MEOH) is likely past the peak in methanol pricing as Iran tensions have eased and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has cautiously resumed, RBC analysts said in a note Tuesday.The analysts said the company reported mixed methanol reference prices for July and Q3, noting that it kept its North American reference price unchanged, lowered its China and Asia Pacific prices to $525 per metric tonne, or MT, and $620/MT, respectively, and increased its European reference price for Q3 to 915 euros/MT, or about $1,042/MT."We expect methanol prices to moderate in H2/26 through 2027, but remain above pre-Iran war levels," the analysts said, adding that their current 2027 methanol price forecast is $403/MT, which is 17% higher than the February 2026 forecast of $343/MT.The analysts said they are increasing their earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization forecast to $1.69 billion for 2026 and $1.50 billion for 2027, up from previous forecasts of $1.62 billion and $1.49 billion, respectively. The higher forecasts reflect the company's non-discounted methanol reference prices, updated methanol price assumptions from CMA, and the idling of the Titan facility, they added.RBC lowered its price target on Methanex to $65 from $70 while keeping its sector perform rating.Price: $45.75, Change: $-0.40, Percent Change: -0.87%

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Commodities

Methanex to Idle Trinidad Titan Plant Amid Persistent Gas Shortages, TPH Says

Methanex (MEOH) plans to idle its 860,000-metric-ton Titan methanol plant in Trinidad and Tobago later in 2026 after failing to secure a new natural gas supply agreement, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.Matthew Blair, an analyst at TPH Energy, said the current feedstock contract is set to expire in Q3, after which the plant will cease operations. The decision follows years of weakening upstream gas production in Trinidad and Tobago, which has fallen steadily as legacy fields mature.National natural gas output declined to 2,547 million cubic feet per day in 2025, down 29% from 3,592 mmcf/d in 2019. Though the domestic methanol sector has marginally increased its share of gas usage to 18% from 15% over the same period, overall methanol production in Canada has dropped 19% compared to 2019 levels.Blair said industry utilization has also deteriorated, with Trinidad's methanol plants running at just 59% last year, producing 4.5 million mt against 7.6 million mt of installed capacity.TPH noted that while Titan represents just under 10% of Methanex's 2026 equity production guidance of 9 million mt, the facility has not been contributing to EBITDA or free cash flow.The bank attributed this to a pricing formula in Trinidad that links gas costs to methanol prices, compressing margins even during periods of elevated global methanol pricing. Higher shipping costs relative to Methanex's broader portfolio further weigh on competitiveness.Blair said that, as a result, it is not revising its H2 2026 or 2027 EBITDA estimates, characterizing the impact as largely neutral from a financial perspective.Elsewhere, Methanex also lowered contract prices for Asia in July, with China and Asia Pacific methanol deals set at $525 per metric ton and $620/mt, respectively, down from $610/mt and $740/mt in June.The reductions align with TPH's expectations and reflect softer global pricing momentum, with Q3 global contract averages tracking about $47/mt lower than the prior quarter.European contract pricing is still pending, but is expected to follow the downward trend.Price: $47.49, Change: $-1.31, Percent Change: -2.68%

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Mining & Metals

Methanex to Indefinitely Idle Its Titan Plant in Trinidad After Gas-Supply Contract Talks Fail

Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) after market close on Monday said it will begin the process of indefinitely idling its Titan methanol plant in Trinidad and Tobago after failing to secure a new natural-gas supply contract.The Titan facility, which has annual production capacity of 860,000 tonnes, is operating under a natural gas contract that expires in the third quarter of 2026. Methanex said it will preserve the plant to maintain the option of restarting operations should market conditions improve materially.The company added the Atlas methanol plant, a joint venture in which it holds a 63.1% economic interest, will remain indefinitely idled in a preserved state.The company said Titan is not currently contributing to its adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, and it does not expect to incur material cash costs as a result of this decision.

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Commodities

Methanex Holds North American July Methanol Contract Price Flat, TPH Says

Methanex (MEOH) kept its July 2026 North American methanol contract price unchanged at $1,480 per ton, despite weaker spot methanol prices, TPH Energy said in a Friday note.The firm said the rollover came even as US spot methanol prices declined about $26 per ton over the month following the US-Iran peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which also pressured crude oil prices. Spot prices in other regions posted similar declines.Despite softer spot prices, North American methanol contract prices have increased $78 per ton so far in the third quarter, remaining at historically strong levels, according to TPH Energy.TPH said Methanex is expected to announce contract prices for additional regions in the coming days, which could provide a broader view of global methanol market conditions.TPH maintained its Buy rating on Methanex with a $72 price target.Price: $47.84, Change: $-0.69, Percent Change: -1.41%

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Wire

Methanex Seen Benefiting From Elevated Methanol Pricing Despite Expected Normalization, RBC Says

Methanex (MEOH) is expected to benefit from a still-elevated methanol pricing environment even as prices gradually normalize over the medium term, according to updated industry forecasts and ongoing supply-side disruptions, RBC Capital said in a Friday note.Commodity Market Analytics raised its methanol price outlook through 2028, with the largest upward revisions in 2027 due to supply constraints in the Middle East and logistical disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz, while prices are still expected to gradually ease from late 2026 but remain above pre-disruption levels, according to the report.RBC noted that Methanex's near-term reference prices are expected to remain stable across North America, China, and Asia Pacific, with elevated pricing supporting strong free cash flow generation and 2026 prices likely staying well above historical averages, aiding deleveraging efforts.The analyst said Methanex's earnings are highly sensitive to methanol price changes, which significantly impact adjusted EBITDA, and added that the company has potential capital allocation flexibility, including continued debt reduction and possible share buybacks starting in late 2026.RBC maintained its sector perform rating on the stock with a price target of $70.Methanex shares were up 2% in Monday trading.Price: $60.28, Change: $+1.18, Percent Change: +2.00%

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Commodities

Global Chemical Spot Markets Drift Lower as US Methanol Gains, TPH Energy Says

Global chemical spot indicators were flat to lower over the week, with US methanol the sole outperformer amid tightening supply conditions, TPH Energy strategists said in a Wednesday note.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that US methanol rose $3 to $541 per metric ton, supported by supply constraints from planned and unplanned outages in key producing regions, including China and Malaysia.The increase lifted the quarter-to-date average by $194/mt. Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is seen as the primary beneficiary of firmer methanol pricing.Elsewhere, China vinyl acetate monomer prices posted the sharpest weekly decline, falling 5 cents to 49 cents, as improved global supply weighed on prices following the completion of Dow's Texas City VAM plant turnaround in mid-May.Despite the weekly weakness, the quarter-to-date average remains higher, up 26 cents. Celanese (CE) is viewed as most exposed to VAM dynamics within coverage.Elsewhere, TPH said that US polyethylene fell 4 cents to 66 cents per pound, US polypropylene dropped 3 cents to -71 cents/lb, and US polyvinyl chloride declined 1 cent to 39 cents/lb. Southeast Asia caustic soda was down $20 to $435/mt, while US methyl tertiary-butyl ether slipped 9 cents to $3.40/gal and US styrene eased 1 cent to 63 cents/lb.On the other hand, US ethylene dichloride and China acetic acid were broadly unchanged over the week at 11 cents/lb and 20 cents/lb, respectively.Price: $59.97, Change: $-0.17, Percent Change: -0.28%

$CE$MEOH
Mining & Metals

Methanex Maintained at Neutral at CIBC Following Q1 Results; Price Target Raised to US$69.00

CIBC Capital Markets reiterated its neutral rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) while raising its price target to US$69.00 from US$66.00 after the methanol producer reported its first-quarter results."We maintain our Neutral rating on Methanex, while raising our price target to $69 (from $66) on a 0.25x increase in our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple (now 7.0x 2027E), reflecting an improved methanol pricing backdrop that should support accelerated deleveraging (1.8x by year-end vs. 4.2x in Q1/26). While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $83 for Methanex," analyst Hamir Patel wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $86.05, Change: $-2.83, Percent Change: -3.18%

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Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$72.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$72.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."We raise our Q2'26 EBITDA outlook to $562mm from $400mm (vs $471mm consensus) after MEOH surprised to the upside at $220mm in Q1 and offered guidance of $500-525/tonne realized margins for Apr-May, a big step up from $351/tonne in Q1. At the midpoint, MEOH's guidance has realized margins improving +$162/tonne q/q, less than the +$206/tonne q/q move in global spot methanol QTD. Typically MEOH's realizations are >100% of spot. However, management noted that due to typical pricing lags between spot and contract, when spot prices surge up, capture will come down. We see this trend in the historical data as well, and would expect MEOH to catch up when methanol prices eventually fall. Other moving parts in Q2 include a greater contribution from the small ammonia business, with prices at $775/tonne vs $450 in Q1, as well as cheaper US feedstock costs with natgas lower q/q. Even if the Strait were to reopen tomorrow, we believe it would take several quarters to normalize on global methanol production and inventories. We also roll in positive revisions to H2 estimates and now have MEOH at a TPHe 27% FCF yield (15% FCF to EV)," analyst Matthew Blair wrote(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $86.20, Change: $-2.68, Percent Change: -3.02%

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Mining & Metals

RBC Lifts Methanex's Price Target to US$70.00 from US$65.00

RBC Capital Markets maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO., MEOH) and raised its price target to US$70.00 from US$65.00 following the Wednesday release of the company's first-quarter results.The higher price target mainly reflects higher methanol prices through 2026, RBC said.Methanex is poised to realize a very strong second quarter as elevated methanol prices hit the bottom line, according to RBC.Based on the company's May 2026 non-discounted methanol price, RBC estimated that the company would generate roughly $1.70 per share of free cash flow per month, which would mainly be allocated to debt reduction, and potentially some share buybacks.However, the main uncertainty is when the Iran conflict will be resolved, and the time it takes for methanol prices to normalize, RBC said.Price: $85.71, Change: $-3.17, Percent Change: -3.57%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Methanex to $75 From $70, Maintains Buy Rating

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72.10, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $64.27, Change: $-1.27, Percent Change: -1.94%

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Wire

RBC Raises Price Target on Methanex to $70 From $65, Keeps Sector Perform Rating

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72.10 according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $64.43, Change: $-1.11, Percent Change: -1.69%

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Research

JPMorgan Downgrades Methanex to Neutral From Overweight

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $71.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

$MEOH
Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$69.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$69.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."Positive. MEOH reported adj Q1'26 EBITDA of $220mm, outpacing TPHe/consensus of $203mm/$208mm as well as Q4 of $186mm. Adj EPS was 30c (vs TPHe/consensus of 18c/38c). The stock is flat in pre-market trading. Relative to our modeling, the beat was driven by a higher realized price of $351/tonne (vs TPHe $337/tonne), likely due to better spot values as methanol prices surged in Mar from the Iran conflict. This was somewhat offset by higher implied costs ($252/tonne vs TPHe $245/tonne). Production (2.39mmt vs TPHe 2.27mmt) was higher than our modeling, thanks to solid rates in Geismar, NZ, and Egypt, but the inventory build was more than we had penciled in, resulting in sales volumes (2.23mmt vs TPHe 2.22mmt) that were inline," analyst Matthew Blair wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $87.61, Change: $+0.96, Percent Change: +1.11%

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Mining & Metals

Methanex Q1 Adjusted Profit Falls 74%, Misses Estimates Despite Higher Revenue

Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) edged down 0.5% in after-hour Nasdaq trade Wednesday as it reported a 74% year-over-year drop in adjusted net income despite higher revenue, with results missing analysts' estimates.The methanol producer posted adjusted net income, excluding most one-time items, of US$23 million, or US$0.30 per share, down from US$88 million, or US$1.30, a year earlier. The result fell short of FactSet's consensus analyst estimate of US$0.40 per share.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 rose 8.7% year over year to US$974 million from US$896 million, but US986.6 million missed FactSet analysts' estimate.Adjusted EBITDA was US$220 million, compared with US$186 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.In its outlook, the company reiterated its expectations for 2026 production to be 9.- million tonnes (Methanex interest) of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia."Based on our April and May posted prices, we expect that our average realized price range will be approximately (US)$500 to (US)$525 per tonne for these two months. Based on a higher realized price and similar sales of produced methanol, we are expecting significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter," Methanex said."This quarter saw the continuation of safe and reliable operations across our portfolio, including at the recently acquired assets in Beaumont, Texas. The conflict in the Middle East has meaningfully impacted global petrochemical supply chains, including methanol, and this has resulted in a rapid and significant increase in global methanol pricing into the second quarter," chief executive Rich Sumner said."We believe our global asset portfolio will allow us to continue providing unmatched reliability of supply to our customers and we remain focused on delivering on our integration plan, cost-effectively operating our assets and supply chain and continuing our de-leveraging efforts while we navigate an evolving and uncertain macro environment," added Sumner.The company said in the first quarter of 2026, it paid a quarterly dividend of $0.185 per common share for a total of $14 million and repaid $60 million of the outstanding Term Loan A.The company's shares were last seen down US$0.31 to US$63.00 after-hours after closing up C$3.95 at C$86.65 on Toronto Stock Exchange.

$MEOH$MX.TO
Mining & Metals

RBC Reiterates Methanex's Sector-Perform Rating, US$65.00 Price Target

RBC Capital Markets on Wednesday maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) and its US$65.00 price target.Methanex recently released its non-discounted methanol reference prices for May, outlining a 19% increase to $1,480 per tonne for North America and unchanged at $740/mt for Asia Pacific, excluding China.RBC believes the reference prices will have a modestly positive impact on the shares of Methanex, as it implies that the realized methanol price for May will likely be higher than April.Methanex is expected to release its first-quarter results after market close on Wednesday, where investors may focus on management's comments relating to the methanol supply/demand/pricing dynamics particularly in Asia.Investors are also expected to focus on management's update on the outlook for its New Zealand operations.Price: $87.11, Change: $+4.41, Percent Change: +5.33%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Research

Methanex Price Target Raised to US$66 at CIBC

CIBC Capital Markets raised its price target on Methanex Corp. (MX.TO, MEOH) to US$66 from US$59.Analyst Hamir Patel maintained a Neutral rating on shares of the Canadian methanol company ahead of its Q1 results on April 29."We have raised our 2026/2027 EBITDA estimates by ~55%/19% reflecting our assumptions for a period of higher methanol prices arising from disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East," Patel said in a note to clients."We also reduced our 2027E EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 6.75x (lowered by 1.0x), which follows adjustments in mid-March, when we accounted for the initial impact of the conflict by raising the multiple without increasing our estimates," the analyst said."While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $80 for Methanex."

$MEOH$MX.TO

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