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Wire

Methanex Seen Benefiting From Elevated Methanol Pricing Despite Expected Normalization, RBC Says

Methanex (MEOH) is expected to benefit from a still-elevated methanol pricing environment even as prices gradually normalize over the medium term, according to updated industry forecasts and ongoing supply-side disruptions, RBC Capital said in a Friday note.Commodity Market Analytics raised its methanol price outlook through 2028, with the largest upward revisions in 2027 due to supply constraints in the Middle East and logistical disruptions such as the Strait of Hormuz, while prices are still expected to gradually ease from late 2026 but remain above pre-disruption levels, according to the report.RBC noted that Methanex's near-term reference prices are expected to remain stable across North America, China, and Asia Pacific, with elevated pricing supporting strong free cash flow generation and 2026 prices likely staying well above historical averages, aiding deleveraging efforts.The analyst said Methanex's earnings are highly sensitive to methanol price changes, which significantly impact adjusted EBITDA, and added that the company has potential capital allocation flexibility, including continued debt reduction and possible share buybacks starting in late 2026.RBC maintained its sector perform rating on the stock with a price target of $70.Methanex shares were up 2% in Monday trading.Price: $60.28, Change: $+1.18, Percent Change: +2.00%

$MEOH
Commodities

Global Chemical Spot Markets Drift Lower as US Methanol Gains, TPH Energy Says

Global chemical spot indicators were flat to lower over the week, with US methanol the sole outperformer amid tightening supply conditions, TPH Energy strategists said in a Wednesday note.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that US methanol rose $3 to $541 per metric ton, supported by supply constraints from planned and unplanned outages in key producing regions, including China and Malaysia.The increase lifted the quarter-to-date average by $194/mt. Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is seen as the primary beneficiary of firmer methanol pricing.Elsewhere, China vinyl acetate monomer prices posted the sharpest weekly decline, falling 5 cents to 49 cents, as improved global supply weighed on prices following the completion of Dow's Texas City VAM plant turnaround in mid-May.Despite the weekly weakness, the quarter-to-date average remains higher, up 26 cents. Celanese (CE) is viewed as most exposed to VAM dynamics within coverage.Elsewhere, TPH said that US polyethylene fell 4 cents to 66 cents per pound, US polypropylene dropped 3 cents to -71 cents/lb, and US polyvinyl chloride declined 1 cent to 39 cents/lb. Southeast Asia caustic soda was down $20 to $435/mt, while US methyl tertiary-butyl ether slipped 9 cents to $3.40/gal and US styrene eased 1 cent to 63 cents/lb.On the other hand, US ethylene dichloride and China acetic acid were broadly unchanged over the week at 11 cents/lb and 20 cents/lb, respectively.Price: $59.97, Change: $-0.17, Percent Change: -0.28%

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Mining & Metals

Methanex Maintained at Neutral at CIBC Following Q1 Results; Price Target Raised to US$69.00

CIBC Capital Markets reiterated its neutral rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) while raising its price target to US$69.00 from US$66.00 after the methanol producer reported its first-quarter results."We maintain our Neutral rating on Methanex, while raising our price target to $69 (from $66) on a 0.25x increase in our EV/EBITDA valuation multiple (now 7.0x 2027E), reflecting an improved methanol pricing backdrop that should support accelerated deleveraging (1.8x by year-end vs. 4.2x in Q1/26). While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $83 for Methanex," analyst Hamir Patel wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $86.05, Change: $-2.83, Percent Change: -3.18%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$72.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$72.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."We raise our Q2'26 EBITDA outlook to $562mm from $400mm (vs $471mm consensus) after MEOH surprised to the upside at $220mm in Q1 and offered guidance of $500-525/tonne realized margins for Apr-May, a big step up from $351/tonne in Q1. At the midpoint, MEOH's guidance has realized margins improving +$162/tonne q/q, less than the +$206/tonne q/q move in global spot methanol QTD. Typically MEOH's realizations are >100% of spot. However, management noted that due to typical pricing lags between spot and contract, when spot prices surge up, capture will come down. We see this trend in the historical data as well, and would expect MEOH to catch up when methanol prices eventually fall. Other moving parts in Q2 include a greater contribution from the small ammonia business, with prices at $775/tonne vs $450 in Q1, as well as cheaper US feedstock costs with natgas lower q/q. Even if the Strait were to reopen tomorrow, we believe it would take several quarters to normalize on global methanol production and inventories. We also roll in positive revisions to H2 estimates and now have MEOH at a TPHe 27% FCF yield (15% FCF to EV)," analyst Matthew Blair wrote(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $86.20, Change: $-2.68, Percent Change: -3.02%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Mining & Metals

RBC Lifts Methanex's Price Target to US$70.00 from US$65.00

RBC Capital Markets maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO., MEOH) and raised its price target to US$70.00 from US$65.00 following the Wednesday release of the company's first-quarter results.The higher price target mainly reflects higher methanol prices through 2026, RBC said.Methanex is poised to realize a very strong second quarter as elevated methanol prices hit the bottom line, according to RBC.Based on the company's May 2026 non-discounted methanol price, RBC estimated that the company would generate roughly $1.70 per share of free cash flow per month, which would mainly be allocated to debt reduction, and potentially some share buybacks.However, the main uncertainty is when the Iran conflict will be resolved, and the time it takes for methanol prices to normalize, RBC said.Price: $85.71, Change: $-3.17, Percent Change: -3.57%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Methanex to $75 From $70, Maintains Buy Rating

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72.10, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $64.27, Change: $-1.27, Percent Change: -1.94%

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Wire

RBC Raises Price Target on Methanex to $70 From $65, Keeps Sector Perform Rating

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72.10 according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $64.43, Change: $-1.11, Percent Change: -1.69%

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Research

JPMorgan Downgrades Methanex to Neutral From Overweight

Methanex (MEOH) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $71.80, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$MEOH
Research

Methanex Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at US$69.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Thursday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) with a US$69.00 price target following the methanol producer's first-quarter results."Positive. MEOH reported adj Q1'26 EBITDA of $220mm, outpacing TPHe/consensus of $203mm/$208mm as well as Q4 of $186mm. Adj EPS was 30c (vs TPHe/consensus of 18c/38c). The stock is flat in pre-market trading. Relative to our modeling, the beat was driven by a higher realized price of $351/tonne (vs TPHe $337/tonne), likely due to better spot values as methanol prices surged in Mar from the Iran conflict. This was somewhat offset by higher implied costs ($252/tonne vs TPHe $245/tonne). Production (2.39mmt vs TPHe 2.27mmt) was higher than our modeling, thanks to solid rates in Geismar, NZ, and Egypt, but the inventory build was more than we had penciled in, resulting in sales volumes (2.23mmt vs TPHe 2.22mmt) that were inline," analyst Matthew Blair wrote.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $87.61, Change: $+0.96, Percent Change: +1.11%

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Mining & Metals

Methanex Q1 Adjusted Profit Falls 74%, Misses Estimates Despite Higher Revenue

Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) edged down 0.5% in after-hour Nasdaq trade Wednesday as it reported a 74% year-over-year drop in adjusted net income despite higher revenue, with results missing analysts' estimates.The methanol producer posted adjusted net income, excluding most one-time items, of US$23 million, or US$0.30 per share, down from US$88 million, or US$1.30, a year earlier. The result fell short of FactSet's consensus analyst estimate of US$0.40 per share.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 rose 8.7% year over year to US$974 million from US$896 million, but US986.6 million missed FactSet analysts' estimate.Adjusted EBITDA was US$220 million, compared with US$186 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.In its outlook, the company reiterated its expectations for 2026 production to be 9.- million tonnes (Methanex interest) of methanol and 0.3 million tonnes of ammonia."Based on our April and May posted prices, we expect that our average realized price range will be approximately (US)$500 to (US)$525 per tonne for these two months. Based on a higher realized price and similar sales of produced methanol, we are expecting significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter," Methanex said."This quarter saw the continuation of safe and reliable operations across our portfolio, including at the recently acquired assets in Beaumont, Texas. The conflict in the Middle East has meaningfully impacted global petrochemical supply chains, including methanol, and this has resulted in a rapid and significant increase in global methanol pricing into the second quarter," chief executive Rich Sumner said."We believe our global asset portfolio will allow us to continue providing unmatched reliability of supply to our customers and we remain focused on delivering on our integration plan, cost-effectively operating our assets and supply chain and continuing our de-leveraging efforts while we navigate an evolving and uncertain macro environment," added Sumner.The company said in the first quarter of 2026, it paid a quarterly dividend of $0.185 per common share for a total of $14 million and repaid $60 million of the outstanding Term Loan A.The company's shares were last seen down US$0.31 to US$63.00 after-hours after closing up C$3.95 at C$86.65 on Toronto Stock Exchange.

$MEOH$MX.TO
Mining & Metals

RBC Reiterates Methanex's Sector-Perform Rating, US$65.00 Price Target

RBC Capital Markets on Wednesday maintained its sector-perform rating on the shares of Methanex (MX.TO, MEOH) and its US$65.00 price target.Methanex recently released its non-discounted methanol reference prices for May, outlining a 19% increase to $1,480 per tonne for North America and unchanged at $740/mt for Asia Pacific, excluding China.RBC believes the reference prices will have a modestly positive impact on the shares of Methanex, as it implies that the realized methanol price for May will likely be higher than April.Methanex is expected to release its first-quarter results after market close on Wednesday, where investors may focus on management's comments relating to the methanol supply/demand/pricing dynamics particularly in Asia.Investors are also expected to focus on management's update on the outlook for its New Zealand operations.Price: $87.11, Change: $+4.41, Percent Change: +5.33%

$MEOH$MX.TO
Research

Methanex Price Target Raised to US$66 at CIBC

CIBC Capital Markets raised its price target on Methanex Corp. (MX.TO, MEOH) to US$66 from US$59.Analyst Hamir Patel maintained a Neutral rating on shares of the Canadian methanol company ahead of its Q1 results on April 29."We have raised our 2026/2027 EBITDA estimates by ~55%/19% reflecting our assumptions for a period of higher methanol prices arising from disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East," Patel said in a note to clients."We also reduced our 2027E EV/EBITDA valuation multiple to 6.75x (lowered by 1.0x), which follows adjustments in mid-March, when we accounted for the initial impact of the conflict by raising the multiple without increasing our estimates," the analyst said."While we expect eventual normalization of commodity prices, with the Middle East accounting for ~20% of global methanol production (10% Iran and 10% other Middle East), in the case that prolonged supply disruptions persist, we model an upside scenario of $80 for Methanex."

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