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StubHub Growth Ahead Seen Slower as World Cup Tailwind Fades, BofA Says in Downgrade
Wire

StubHub Growth Ahead Seen Slower as World Cup Tailwind Fades, BofA Says in Downgrade

StubHub (STUB) is likely to see slower growth in the next few quarters as World Cup-driven tailwinds fade and tougher comparisons await, BofA Securities said Thursday.Late Wednesday, the ticketing marketplace for live events reported that its second-quarter gross merchandise sales, or GMS, surged 34% year over year to a record $3.1 billion."The second quarter demonstrated strong demand for live events, highlighted by a record-setting World Cup," StubHub Chief Executive Eric Baker said in an earnings release. The men's football event was co-hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico from June 11 through July 19.StubHub is likely to see slower growth in the second half of the year "possibly due to a pull forward of demand due to (the World Cup), or changing share dynamics," BofA analyst Justin Post said in a note to clients Thursday.The brokerage downgraded its rating on the company's stock to underperform from neutral and lowered its price objective to $7.50 from $11.StubHub shares were down 13% in afternoon trade.For the full year, the company raised its GMS outlook to between $10.1 billion and $10.3 billion from its prior forecast range of $9.9 billion to $10.1 billion. It left its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization outlook range unchanged at $400 million to $420 million.The forecast implies pressure on volumes in the second half of the year despite a "constructive" concert guidance for the period from Live Nation (LYV), while 2027 is likely to have tough first-half comparisons, BofA said."Near-term, ticketing sales could rebound from August lows and drive upside, but we also see risk to 2027 (estimates) given (comparison versus) a robust US consumer spending environment in 2026," Post wrote. "Upside drivers could include announcements of tier 1 concert tours in 2027, or strong fan interest in upcoming NFL and NBA seasons."The company is "closely" tracking second-half consumer live entertainment spending trends following a surge in demand driven by the World Cup, Baker said on an earnings conference call late Wednesday, according to a FactSet transcript.Price: $7.39, Change: $-1.16, Percent Change: -13.52%

$LYV$STUB
Wire

Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Live Nation Entertainment to $212 From $181, Maintains Buy Rating

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $198.12, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $172.28, Change: $-11.29, Percent Change: -6.15%

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Wire

Live Nation Entertainment Shares Fall After Susquehanna Downgrade

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) shares fell 2.1% in Tuesday trading after Susquehanna downgraded the stock to neutral from positive and raised its price target to $186 from $181.Intraday volume topped 801,600 shares, compared with the daily average of 2.52 million.Price: $177.02, Change: $-3.85, Percent Change: -2.13%

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Research

Susquehanna Downgrades Live Nation Entertainment to Neutral From Positive, Adjusts PT to $186 From $181

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $191.30, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

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Wire

Live Nation Entertainment Seen Posting Q2 Revenue Growth on Solid Live Demand, UBS Says

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is expected to post continued revenue growth in Q2 as demand for live events remains strong globally, though ticketing growth is likely to remain muted, UBS Securities said in a Monday note.The company is scheduled to report its Q2 results on July 30.UBS expects Q2 revenue to grow 8.8% year over year and adjusted operating income, or AOI, remains relatively flat at about $800 million. Concert revenue is projected to increase 9% and Concert AOI is expected to decline about 9% to $327 million.The brokerage expects Sponsorship and Advertising revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to rise 14% year over year. UBS said it expects the segment to be on track for double-digit growth for the full year.Ticketing growth is expected to remain muted, with ticket sales and AOI projected to increase 1% and 1.6%, respectively. Revenue per ticket is expected to grow 3.5%, down from 6% in the first quarter, reflecting a shift toward non-stadium venues due to the World Cup.UBS said sustained demand for live entertainment continues to support its positive view on the company and raised its price target on the stock to $208 from $181 while maintaining its buy rating.Price: $181.65, Change: $+1.43, Percent Change: +0.79%

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Wire

Roth Capital Adjusts Live Nation Entertainment Price Target to $205 From $190, Maintains Buy Rating

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $188.39, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $181.59, Change: $+0.03, Percent Change: +0.02%

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Madison Square's Potential Theater Monetization Already Baked Into Share Price, Seaport Says
Wire

Madison Square's Potential Theater Monetization Already Baked Into Share Price, Seaport Says

Madison Square Garden Entertainment's (MSGE) potential monetization of the Theater at the Garden could drive incremental capital returns for shareholders, though that enthusiasm is likely already baked into the share price, Seaport Research Partners said in a note on Monday.Madison Square entered into a memorandum of understanding with Penn Transformation Partners earlier this month, in connection with the proposed redevelopment of New York Penn Station, the company said in a recent filing.As part of the redevelopment, a grand entrance to a new train hall will be constructed on 8th Avenue by removing the Infosys Theater, Amtrak, which is more formally known as National Railroad Passenger Corp., and Penn Transformation Partners said last week. The Theater at Madison Square Garden was renamed to the Infosys (INFY) Theater at Madison Square Garden, the companies said in February.The MOU contemplates the transfer of the Infosys Theater to Penn Transformation Partners, subject to further negotiation and execution of definitive documentation, Madison Square said in the filing.Madison Square's share price has crossed Seaport's recently-increased $80 price target. The brokerage downgraded the stock to neutral from buy."MSG Entertainment shares now largely reflect the strong fundamental growth for (fiscal 2026), the positive upcoming event visibility, and the hopes for possibly monetizing the Theater at the Garden (which could mean incremental opportunistic capital returns," Seaport senior analyst David Joyce wrote.Madison Square has been working toward an estimated 11.5% adjusted operating income growth for fiscal 2026, and could see a similar rate in 2027.Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) can command more volume and pricing growth than Madison, Joyce said."While we like (Madison Square's) assets and growth outlook, and it may indeed offer some form of opportunistic capital returns if and when a sale of the Theater at the Garden materializes, we think it is closer to the upper bound of its AOI/growth ratio and should trade at somewhat of a discount to (Live Nation)," Joyce said.Madison said in May that its fiscal third-quarter revenue increased year over year, while adjusted operating income plunged 20%.Price: $80.94, Change: $+0.64, Percent Change: +0.80%

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Wire

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Live Nation Entertainment to $200 From $185, Maintains Overweight Rating

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $186.96, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $168.94, Change: $+6.28, Percent Change: +3.86%

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Wire

Rothschild & Co Redburn Adjusts Live Nation Entertainment Price Target to $195 From $193

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $185.78, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $168.56, Change: $+11.30, Percent Change: +7.19%

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Research

Research Alert: Lyv Q1: Strong Revenue Growth, Record Deferred Revenue Despite Legal Accrual

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:LYV delivered strong Q1 2026 revenue growth of 12% to $3.8B, though a $450M legal accrual resulted in operating loss of $(370.5)M and EPS impact of $(1.93), while underlying adjusted operating income grew 9% to $371M. The company demonstrated robust fundamentals with record deferred revenue reaching $6.6B for events (+22%) and $368M for ticketing (+29%), providing strong visibility with over 107M tickets sold for 2026 concerts (+11%). We believe LYV's venue expansion strategy continues delivering attractive returns, with recent acquisitions adding 4M annual fan capacity and venues opened in 2025 on track for 20%+ IRRs by 2028. Management projects double-digit growth in operating income and AOI for full-year 2026. We think the company's strong deferred revenue position and robust ticket sales provide a solid foundation for future growth, supported by planned capex of $1.1B-$1.2B for venue expansion. LYV maintains healthy liquidity with $9.1B cash and debt leverage at 3.6x.

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Wire

Live Entertainment Poised to Capture Value in AI-Driven Content Surge, Morgan Stanley Says

Generative artificial intelligence is likely to commoditize content while live experiences, especially sports, are set to capture attention and generate the most value, Morgan Stanley said in a note emailed Friday.The firm sees Formula One (FWONK), TKO Group (TKO), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Walt Disney (DIS) and Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) as particularly resilient, "anti-fragile" entertainment assets in an AI-driven world.In a more fragmented and distracted world, "nothing captures viewer attention more than sports and live events, which carry urgency, unpredictability, and a sense of communal participation that reflect and shape the culture," the firm said, adding that these events' scarcity gives them stronger monetization and pricing power.The firm said Live Nation and Sphere Entertainment are the clearest examples of this trend. Disney's Parks and Resorts use well-known global intellectual property to create in-person experiences with strong pricing power. Formula One and TKO Group provide exposure to highly strategic trophy assets, with strong cash flows and attractive entry points, according to the note.Morgan Stanley adjusted price targets on Liberty Formula One from $120 to $117, Sphere Entertainment from $135 to $158, and TKO Group from $215 to $225, while TKO was also upgraded from equalweight to overweight. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) was upgraded from underweight to overweight and its price target was raised from $11 to $14.Price: $103.82, Change: $+0.07, Percent Change: +0.07%

$DIS$FWONK$LYV$PSKY$SPHR$TKO
Research

Research Alert: Lyv Faces Uncertainty With Antitrust Court Decision On Ticketmaster

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:LYV received a U.S. court jury's verdict late yesterday awarding $1.72/ticket in damages (est. $700M) after determining LYV monopolized ticketing services, concert ticketing, and concert venue markets. Our legal analyst at Washington Analysis, CFRA's policy business, sees 20% odds of a company breakup. We see the DOJ accepting the efficacy of the terms of settlement it reached with LYV, although we may see LYV appeal the jury's decision. There could be a post-trial motion to cut back the verdict by Judge Subramanian, as indicated from significant issues raised by LYV that argued the states' lawsuits failed to establish factual support on harm to competition and damages to the public. LYV's motion to exclude the states' damages expert is already briefed and Judge Subramanian could decide it soon. Washington Analysis says that state attorney generals may have strong incentives to settle, creating another news cycle about how they took it to LYV and delivered ticket savings to consumers. We keep our Hold view.

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Wire

Market Chatter: Live Nation Illegally Monopolized Ticketing Market, Jury Says

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) illegally monopolized the live-events ticketing and amphitheater markets, a New York federal jury found, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.The jury also concluded that Live Nation and its Ticketmaster unit illegally tied access to company-owned venues to the use of its concert-promotion services, the report said.The company's conduct caused concertgoers to overpay by $1.72 per ticket, the jury said, according to the report.US District Judge Arun Subramanian will review the findings to determine the financial damages and any additional remedies, the report said.Live Nation did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.Live Nation shares fell 0.5% in after-hours trading after dropping 6.3% in the regular session.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Wire

Wolfe Research Adjusts Live Nation Entertainment PT to $206 From $205, Maintains Outperform Rating

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $185.83, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $159.37, Change: $-1.32, Percent Change: -0.82%

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