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Wire

RBC Highlights Preferred Midstream Names as Earnings Season Approaches

BP's midstream benchmark fell 1.6% over the week ended June 11, but still delivered a 16.4% gain so far this year, outperforming the S&P 500's 8.0% advance, RBC Capital Markets said Friday.The sector also outperformed utilities by 1,314 basis points and real estate investment trusts by 160 basis points this year, although it lagged oilfield services by 3,319 basis points and exploration and production companies by 1,306 basis points, RBC said.Commodity prices weakened during the week, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude dropping about 6% to roughly $88 per barrel and Henry Hub natural gas falling about 7.5% to $3.09 per million British thermal units, according to RBC.Archrock (AROC) led performance among RBC-covered companies with a 3.7% gain, supported by continued strength in the compression market, while Sunoco (SUN) fell 4.4% as investors likely locked in profits, the firm said.C-corporations gained 0.1%, outperforming master limited partnerships, which declined 1.6%.RBC estimates its coverage universe trades at an average 2027 enterprise value-to-adjusted EBITDA multiple of 10.0x and expects midstream stocks to remain sensitive to Iran-related developments that influence commodity prices.The firm said companies with greater perceived commodity exposure, including Targa Resources (TRGP), ONEOK (OKE), and Kinetik Holdings (KNTK), as well as liquefied natural gas-focused names such as Venture Global (VG) and Cheniere Energy (LNG), could react most sharply to geopolitical headlines.Kinder Morgan will kick off the second-quarter earnings season for RBC's coverage universe on July 22. RBC expects management to discuss geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions, stronger export activity, commodity-price support, and growth opportunities across its project pipeline.Among its preferred investments, RBC highlighted Cheniere Energy, citing 95% contracted cash flows through 2035, a $10 billion share repurchase program, and a target to increase dividends by 10% annually through 2030.RBC said Sunoco can build on operational momentum through 2027, benefiting from stronger refining margins at Burnaby, synergies from the Parkland acquisition, and an additional $500 million bolt-on acquisition strategy.The firm also favors Targa Resources, citing customer-backed expansion projects, exposure to leading Permian Basin acreage, and rising gas-to-oil ratios that could support natural gas growth even if crude production levels off.For Williams Companies (WMB), RBC sees growing electricity demand and natural gas consumption creating opportunities for high-return projects tied to Transco expansions and power-related infrastructure through 2030 and beyond.Williams is targeting adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth of more than 10% through 2030, including roughly 9% growth from Haynesville-related projects, while maintaining a balance sheet capable of supporting further expansion, RBC said.Price: $36.67, Change: $+0.59, Percent Change: +1.65%

$AROC$KMI$KNTK$LNG$OKE$SUN$TRGP$VG$WMB
Commodities

Market Chatter: Permian Operators Shut Wells as Waha Gas Prices Stay Below Zero

Persistently weak gas prices in the Permian Basin are forcing some producers to curb output even as stronger crude prices encourage additional oil drilling, Bloomberg reported Monday.Producers, including Permian Resources (PR) and Devon Energy (DVN), have shut in wells with elevated gas-to-oil ratios after prices at the Waha Hub remained below zero for 124 straight days.Describing the move as an obvious economic decision, Permian Resources Co-Chief Executive Officer James Walter said the company curtailed gas-heavy production that was generating losses.While gas producers struggle with negative pricing, crude output across the Permian continues to climb as operators respond to oil prices that remain roughly 50% above levels seen before the Iran conflict.Flooding the market with associated gas from oil wells, rising crude-focused activity has overwhelmed existing pipeline infrastructure across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.According to Targa Resources (TRGP) President Jennifer Kneale, producers are currently shutting in between 200 million and 400 million cubic feet of gas per day, compared with basin-wide dry gas production of about 23 Bcf/d.Middle East-related supply disruptions have encouraged additional oil-weighted drilling, which is adding further pressure to already constrained gas takeaway capacity, Rystad Energy Vice President Matt Bernstein said.Despite stronger crude prices, some operators have refrained from increasing production because losses tied to associated gas can offset gains from oil sales, Bernstein added.Instead of curtailing output, privately held Elevation Resources has opted to flare excess gas, allowing the company to free up infrastructure capacity and continue producing more crude oil, according to the report.Highlighting the pressure facing gas-focused operators, Elevation Resources Chief Executive Officer Steve Pruett said, "We're losing money hand over fist on gas," adding that natural gas accounts for roughly half of the company's production.Recent production curtailments have started to tighten the market, helping lift natural gas prices at the Waha Hub, according to the report.Recovering from a record low of negative $9.60 per million British thermal units on April 24, Waha prices improved to negative $0.33/MMBtu on Thursday, their highest level since February.Later this year, new Permian gas pipeline projects are expected to ease transportation constraints, allowing producers to move more gas to demand centers and improving in-basin pricing, the report said.Despite those expected improvements, Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) raised its full-year gas curtailment outlook and said higher oil prices continue to encourage crude-focused operators to expand activity while gas-focused producers face a much more challenging market environment."It's a tale of two cities: crude folks that are doing cartwheels and backflips," Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Welch said, while "those that are literally localized, gas-centric sellers are literally crying poverty."(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

$DVN$KNTK$PR$TRGP
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Advance Premarket Tuesday

Energy stocks were advancing premarket Tuesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) 0.4% higher.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 1.5% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.8% higher.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 0.7% lower at $107.95 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil fell 1.5% to $110.40 per barrel, and natural gas futures were up 0.6% at $3.04 per 1 million British Thermal Units.Equinor (EQNR) shares were up more than 2% after the company said it signed a 5-year agreement with Dutch energy provider Eneco to supply natural gas from the Norwegian continental shelf.BP (BP) maintained the lockout at its Whiting refinery in Indiana after failing to reach a deal with the United Steelworkers, or USW, Local 7-1, the company said. BP stock was 0.4% higher pre-bell.Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) shares were up more than 1% after the company said it has reached a final investment decision and will proceed with the Kings Landing II natural gas processing plant at its existing Kings Landing complex in New Mexico, which is estimated to cost about $260 million.

$BP$EQNR$KNTK$UNG$USO$XLE