FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

$GPRE

9 stories mentioning GPREUpdated 21d ago

Every FINWIRES story that references GPRE, newest first.

Commodities

Renewable Fuel Makers Set for Strong Q2 as RINs, Diesel Prices Lift Earnings, TPH Says

Renewable fuel producers are expected to report a sharp improvement in Q2 earnings as stronger government blending mandates, higher diesel prices and a tightening California carbon market boost margins across the sector, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Wednesday.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said Q2 EBITDA for renewable fuel companies is expected to rise to an average of $600 million, above the consensus estimate of $564 million and higher than the $410 million reported in Q1.Blair said the gains would mark the strongest quarterly performance for many companies in at least four years. TPH said the sector has benefited from three major tailwinds.The US Environmental Protection Agency's 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation introduced more aggressive blending targets, with requirements about 20% higher than the previous year.However, despite a recent increase in renewable diesel utilization, the market is projected to fall short of the mandated volumes unless imports rise substantially.Renewable Identification Numbers, which are used by refiners and fuel blenders to comply with federal biofuel obligations, strengthened during the quarter.D4 renewable diesel RIN prices averaged $2.11 per gallon in Q2, up from $1.39 in the previous quarter, with prices recently approaching $2.50 per gallon.Blair said even with RD utilization picking up recently, the industry is likely to come in well short of the 2026 RVO unless RD imports step up in a big way.The renewable fuels industry also benefited from higher conventional fuel prices following the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted global energy markets and contributed to tighter supply conditions.Flat diesel prices climbed to $3.78 per gallon in Q2 from $2.78 per gallon in the previous quarter, despite repeated expectations during much of the period that diplomatic efforts could lead to a ceasefire.California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard market provided another boost, moving into a supply deficit for the first time in four years as stricter carbon intensity requirements reduced credit availability.LCFS credit prices averaged $68 per metric ton during the quarter, compared with $65/mt in the prior quarter, and have since climbed closer to $75/mt.TPH expects several companies to outperform Wall Street expectations, with the biggest upside projected for Green Plains (GPRE), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Neste.Green Plains is forecast to exceed consensus EBITDA estimates by about 15%, supported by stronger co-product contributions.Archer-Daniels is expected to beat estimates by about 10%, driven by improving soybean crushing margins and ethanol market trends, while Neste is projected to come in roughly 7% above consensus as refining conditions improve.Going forward to Q3, renewable natural gas markets are showing further improvement, supported by stronger D3 RIN and LCFS credit prices.Other segments, including renewable diesel, ethanol and soybean crushing, have softened slightly from second-quarter levels but remain above year-ago levels and five-year averages.Price: $17.65, Change: $-0.02, Percent Change: -0.11%

$ADM$GPRE
Commodities

US-Iran Tensions Lift Renewable Fuel Stocks, RD Margins to Five-Year Highs, TPH Energy Says

Renewed US-Iran tensions lifted renewable fuel stocks 7.1% last week as higher crude prices drove renewable diesel margins higher, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.The renewable fuels sector outperformed the S&P 500's 1.6% decline as rising crude prices boosted sentiment, the note said. OPAL Fuels (OPAL) jumped 22.2%, and Green Plains (GPRE) gained 13.9%, while Aemetis (AMTX) fell 1.9% and Montauk Renewables (MNTK) slipped 2.5%.Higher diesel prices pushed renewable diesel indicators up 37 cents per gallon despite softer D4 Renewable Identification Number credits, the note said. Renewable diesel-corn oil and renewable diesel-white grease margins reached fresh five-year highs.Meanwhile, renewable natural gas margins declined $1 per million British thermal units on weaker D3 Renewable Identification Number credits, while Midwest ethanol margins fell 2 cents per gallon as corn costs increased.US spot and 2026 soybean crush margins rose $10 per ton and $6/ton, respectively, on stronger soybean oil prices, extending the crush margin to another five-year high, the note said.In other developments, BP (BP) recorded a charge tied to its renewables business, Brazil increased its ethanol blend mandate to 32% from 30%, and Gevo doubled its 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization outlook to about $60 million, the note said.The note also said Viridi broke ground on a renewable natural gas project in Nebraska, Waste Management unveiled plans for another renewable natural gas project in Colorado, and Neste is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Friday.

$AMTX$BP$GPRE$MNTK$OPAL
Wire

UBS Raises Price Target on Green Plains to $20 From $12, Maintains Neutral Rating

Green Plains (GPRE) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $19, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $19.34, Change: $+2.13, Percent Change: +12.38%

$GPRE
Commodities

Resilient Q3 Ethanol Margins Offset Weaker Co-Product Prices, TPH Says

Q3 ethanol margins averaged $1.05 per gallon so far, exceeding previous expectations despite moderating from the prior quarter, according to TPH Energy Research in a Wednesday note.The firm said its Midwest ethanol margin indicator eased from $1.15/gal in Q2 but remained above $1.03/gal a year earlier, reflecting continued strength in industry profitability.Lower co-product prices weighed on margins during the quarter. Falling dried distillers grains prices, driven by weaker soymeal values, reduced the margin indicator by 6 cents per gallon over the quarter, while softer corn oil prices trimmed the margin by another 2 cents.The ethanol-to-corn spread narrowed by just 2 cents per gallon from the prior quarter as lower corn prices largely offset slightly weaker ethanol prices.TPH Energy said corn prices declined despite last week's bullish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which lowered year-end corn inventories on stronger exports.The firm said ethanol exports continue to support the industry and expects US shipments to reach 2.2 billion gallons in 2026, up from 2.0 billion gallons in 2025.Stronger-than-expected ethanol margins prompted TPH Energy to raise its third-quarter EBITDA forecast for Green Plains (GPRE) to $82 million from the consensus estimate of $69 million.TPH Energy also expects Green Plains to generate a 19% free cash flow yield in 2026, supported by resilient ethanol margins and favorable export trends.The brokerage said the improving ethanol market should also benefit Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Aemetis (AMTX) and Valero Energy (VLO).Price: $16.65, Change: $-0.47, Percent Change: -2.75%

$ADM$AMTX$GPRE$VLO
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Equities Advance as US-Iran Tensions Boost RD Margins, TPH Says

Renewable diesel margins climbed to five-year highs as renewed US-Iran conflict lifted fuel markets, although higher feedstock costs pressured ethanol and soy crush economics, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a Monday note.Renewable fuel stocks gained 3.4% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.2% rise, according to TPH.Green Plains (GPRE) advanced 8.9%, Darling Ingredients (DAR) gained 7.6%, and Bunge Global (BG) added 7.4%, while Aemetis (AMTX) fell 3.0% and Montauk Renewables (MNTK) declined 4.7%, the firm said.Higher diesel prices and stronger D4 Renewable Identification Number values lifted renewable diesel indicators by 34 cents to 75 cents per gallon, with renewable diesel margins based on corn oil and white grease reaching fresh five-year highs, TPH Energy said.A bullish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report pushed corn and soybean prices higher, reducing Midwest ethanol margins by 10 cents per gallon and soy crush margins by $5 per metric ton.Among renewable fuel companies, only Neste, Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Montauk Renewables, OPAL Fuels (OPAL) and Green Plains traded below their respective three-year forward enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization averages, TPH Energy said.Price: $17.60, Change: $+0.70, Percent Change: +4.17%

$AMTX$BG$CLNE$DAR$GPRE$MNTK$OPAL
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Investors Upbeat as Tighter US Biofuel Mandates Lift Outlook, TPH Says

Investors focused on renewable fuels are becoming more optimistic about the sector after the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 2026 biofuel blending requirements tightened the market for renewable fuel credits, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Friday.The improved sentiment has been driven largely by stronger prices for Renewable Identification Numbers, the tradable credits used to comply with the federal Renewable Fuel Standard.Tighter supplies of the credits have improved profit margins for renewable diesel producers, soybean processors, and ethanol makers, Blair said, adding that the D4 RIN credit prices may need to rise further to encourage additional imports of renewable fuels into the US. D4 RINs are credits primarily used for biomass-based diesel.Investors also question whether the Trump administration could grant a waiver to reduce or suspend Renewable Fuel Standard requirements, but Blair said any such action is unlikely.Among publicly traded companies, Blair said investors show the greatest interest in Darling Ingredients (DAR), Bunge Global (BG) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), as well as ethanol producer Green Plains (GPRE).Price: $60.41, Change: $+0.22, Percent Change: +0.37%

$ADM$BG$DAR$GPRE
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Equities Outperform Broader Market Despite Weekly Dip, TPH Energy Says

Second-quarter renewable fuel margins remained stronger than the prior quarter despite mixed weekly trends, while renewable fuel stocks outperformed the broader market, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Renewable fuel equities slipped an average of 0.1% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.0% decline, TPH said. On the renewable natural gas side, OPAL Fuels (OPAL) gained 14.0%, while Aemetis (AMTX) dropped 12.8%.Green Plains (GPRE) rose 1.8%, although TPH said the stock could have reacted more strongly after the White House urged lawmakers to approve year-round E15 gasoline sales. The company also noted investor interest in Neste, which gained 2.6% despite lower oil prices and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Weekly margin indicators produced mixed results, with renewable diesel margins increasing by 11 cents per gallon to 50 cents/gal, while Midwest ethanol margins fell 2 cents/gal and US soy crush margins declined $2 per ton. Renewable natural gas margins were unchanged, TPH added.Compared with the first quarter, most spot margin indicators strengthened during the second quarter, with renewable diesel margins from soybean oil rising 81 cents/gal, white grease increasing 49 cents/gal, and corn oil gaining 21 cents/gal, TPH said.Midwest ethanol margins improved 31 cents/gal, soy crush margins increased $52 per ton, and renewable natural gas margins rose $1 per million British thermal units from the first quarter, according to TPH Energy.The largest quarter-over-quarter decline came in renewable diesel produced from tallow, where margins fell by 63 cents/gal as feedstock costs increased sharply, the note added.Among last week's industry developments, the US finalized the Regenerative Feedstock Rule, while LanzaTech canceled its 80,000-metric-ton ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel plant in Wales, TPH said.The report also highlighted Amazon's (AMZN) investment in Brazilian sustainable aviation fuel producer GranBio and noted that China's used cooking oil exports reached an 18-month high as shipments to the US increased, according to TPH Energy.

$AMTX$AMZN$GPRE$OPAL
Commodities

Trump Pushes to Make Year-Round E15 Sales Permanent, TPH Says

The Trump administration is seeking permanent authorization for year-round sales of E15 gasoline, a move that could modestly boost US ethanol demand and support biofuel producers, TPH Energy strategists said in a Thursday note.Matthew Blair, an analyst at TPH Energy, said that the White House Office of Management and Budget has requested legislation to allow the higher-ethanol fuel blend to be sold year-round as part of a supplemental budget proposal.The measure follows the passage of a similar bill in the House of Representatives in May, though its prospects in the Senate remain uncertain.TPH analysts said E15, a gasoline blend containing 15% ethanol, is currently restricted during the summer months in much of the US due to concerns that its higher volatility could contribute to smog formation in hot weather.Federal regulators have routinely issued temporary waivers to allow summertime sales, but the latest proposal would make those permissions permanent.The move marks the latest step by the administration to support the US biofuels industry, a key constituency in agricultural states across the Midwest.Though the potential increase in demand may be limited initially, analysts say even incremental gains in ethanol blending rates could benefit major producers, including Green Plains (GPRE), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Valero Energy (VLO).There are fewer than 5,000 E15 pumps across the US, representing less than 2% market share, Blair said, adding that even with approval for year-round E15, actual volumes would likely remain quite small at first.However, TPH said ethanol's current pricing advantage over gasoline could encourage wider adoption. Midwest ethanol is trading at about $1.85 per gallon, compared with about $2.92 per gallon for Midwest gasoline.The US consumed about 13.6 billion gallons of ethanol last year, largely unchanged from the previous year and below pre-pandemic levels.TPH said a permanent shift to year-round E15 sales would likely provide a gradual increase in domestic ethanol demand rather than an immediate surge, analysts said. However, at a time when US biofuel consumption has stagnated, even modest growth could improve margins and utilization rates for ethanol producers.The proposal now faces the more difficult challenge of securing Senate approval, where bipartisan support for biofuel legislation has historically been uneven despite backing from farm-state lawmakers and the ethanol industry.Price: $251.73, Change: $+9.29, Percent Change: +3.83%

$ADM$GPRE$VLO
Wire

Green Plains Swings to Q1 Earnings, Revenue Falls

Green Plains (GPRE) reported Q1 earnings Thursday of $0.42 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $1.14 a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a loss of $0.03 per share.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $445.8 million, down from $601.5 million a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $465.5 million.Price: $17.19, Change: $+0.22, Percent Change: +1.30%

$GPRE

Track with the FINWIRES app suite

FolioX
FolioX
Track GPRE in your portfolio
WheelAI
WheelAI
Analyze GPRE options with the wheel strategy
StockInsider
StockInsider
See market sentiment on GPRE