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Commodities

US Fuel Inventories Stay Tight; Guyana, Permian Projects Support Energy Outlook, UBS Says

US fuel inventories remain tight despite high refinery utilization, while wider gas spreads support refiners, Guyana boosts Exxon Mobil's (XOM) cash flow potential, and new Permian pipelines bolster growing natural gas liquids demand, UBS said in a note on Wednesday.The US Department of Energy reported a 100,000-barrel crude inventory build for the latest week, below the 600,000-barrel consensus estimate and the 4.2-million-barrel American Petroleum Institute estimate.Gasoline inventories fell 2.54 million barrels over the same period, compared with a 700,000-barrel consensus draw and a 3.2 million-barrel decline in the American Petroleum Institute estimate.Diesel stocks declined 2.23 million barrels, versus a 1.6-million-barrel expected draw and a 500,000-barrel decline in the American Petroleum Institute estimate.US refinery utilization rose 0.2 percentage point over the week to 97.4%, UBS said, adding that such elevated rates typically do not last and could tighten fuel markets as seasonal maintenance increases.US diesel inventories now stand 14.4% below the five-year average and 9.5% below last year's level, while gasoline stocks sit 6% below the five-year average and 7% below 2025 levels.PADD 3 diesel inventories are 10% below the five-year average, while PADD 1, PADD 2 and PADD 5 stocks are 34.9%, 4.3% and 5.8% below their respective five-year averages.Gasoline inventories are 5.5% below the five-year average in PADD 3, 5.6% lower in PADD 1, 7.8% lower in PADD 2 and 6.5% lower in PADD 5.Q3 2026 quarter-to-date RIN-adjusted refining margins average $42.79 per barrel in the Mid-Continent, $46.27/bbl on the West Coast and $47.62/bbl in the North Atlantic.The Gulf Coast's RIN-adjusted crack averaged $43.88/bbl in Q3 of 2026 quarter to date, versus $30.45/bbl in Q2 and $15.26/bbl in Q3 2025.European natural gas prices have risen in recent weeks as tensions in the Middle East and offline liquefied natural gas facilities, including assets in Qatar, tighten regional markets, while US prices remain relatively insulated, UBS said.The spread between European TTF and Nymex Henry Hub gas prices has widened to about $20 per million British thermal units from roughly $10/MMBtu two months ago, improving the competitive position of North American refiners.UBS estimated that a $5/MMBtu increase in gas costs, if North American refining assets were exposed to European gas prices, would add about $1.5 billion in annual costs for Valero (VLO), $1.8 billion for Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and $922 million for Phillips 66 (PSX).Exxon Mobil's Guyana production averaged about 900,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026, while the Errea Wittu, the project's fifth floating production vessel, remains on track to start by year-end.The Exxon Mobil-led group is advancing the Longtail development toward a final investment decision and has begun evaluating a potential ninth floating production vessel.The group has recovered about $55 billion in invested capital and operating costs, reducing the legacy costs subject to recovery, although new spending will continue adding to the cost bank.UBS expects Guyana's lower capital intensity and higher entitlement volumes to boost free cash flow, with production potentially exceeding the 2030 target of 1.3 million b/d and generating over $6 billion annually for Exxon Mobil and over $4 billion for Chevron (CVX) at $70/bbl Brent.Multiple new gas-processing plants from Targa Resources (TRGP) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) in the Delaware and Midland basins, along with new EPD fractionators at Mont Belvieu, will require additional Y-grade pipeline capacity, UBS said.The new pipelines will connect Permian gas plants with fractionators expected to start over the next two to three years, supporting rising global demand for liquefied petroleum gas and ethane.Planned expansions include BANGL and Coastal Bend in Q4 2026, Bahia in Q4 2027, and Speedway in Q3 2027, adding Permian Y-grade takeaway capacity.UBS said the projects should ease natural gas liquids takeaway constraints and link rising Permian production with international LPG and ethane demand, while supporting Gulf Coast petrochemical feedstock costs.

$CVX$EPD$MPC$PSX$TRGP$VLO$XOM
Commodities

Panama Canal Drought Threatens to Fuel Asia LPG Prices Through 2027, Kpler Says

Restrictions on Panama Canal transits are likely to persist into Q2 2027 as a strong El Nino threatens to worsen dry conditions in Central America, raising costs for liquefied petroleum gas shipments from the US Gulf Coast to Asia, according to a Kpler note on Wednesday.The Panama Canal Authority announced last week cuts to daily transits through its Panamax and Neopanamax locks as water levels in Gatun Lake decline, the analysis said.Panamax transits will fall to 25 per day from 26 on Sep. 3 and to 23 from Sep. 15, while Neopanamax transits will drop to nine from 10 on Sep. 3.Kpler projected that the Gatun Lake levels would come under pressure in early 2027, with April likely to mark the seasonal low point.The data analytics firm said under a scenario in which rainfall from October 2026 through July 2027 is 20% below the five-year average, the lake level could fall to about 80.7 feet in April.Kpler said a drier scenario, with precipitation 40% below average, would push the level closer to 2023 drought lows at about 79.9 feet.The outlook comes as US LPG export capacity is set to expand, potentially increasing demand for Panama Canal transits at a time when the waterway is already congested.Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is projected to add about 300,000 barrels per day of LPG capacity at its Houston facilities in Q1 2027, while Targa Resources' (TRGP) Galena Park expansion is expected to add another 130,000 b/d in Q3.Early Q2 2027 will have the most acute pressure from low lake levels, Nils Jenson, insight analyst at Kpler, said, adding that higher US exports would provide another source of cargoes competing for limited canal capacity.US shipments to Asia have already increased across crude, refined products and NGLs as Middle Eastern supplies have been constrained, boosting demand for the Panama Canal.Kpler said a return of some Middle Eastern supply in Q1 2027 could redirect part of the US-Asia flow but is unlikely to eliminate pressure on canal capacity.Meanwhile, the combination of restricted transits, congestion and strong LPG demand has already pushed up the cost of moving cargoes through the canal.A Neopanamax slot for an Aug. 28 northbound transit was recently auctioned for $3.15 million, according to an industry report cited by Kpler.Alternative trading strategies, including moving LPG on smaller shuttle vessels through the Panamax locks to bypass Neopanamax congestion, are also being explored.However, such arrangements are costly and can handle only limited volumes, leaving many operators with a choice between paying higher canal costs or taking longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope.Kpler said that those constraints are likely to support very large gas carrier freight rates and delivered LPG prices in East Asia through Q2 2027.A proposed pipeline to bypass the canal for LPG shipments is not expected to be operational until late 2030, so it is unlikely to provide near-term relief.Price: $38.95, Change: $+0.68, Percent Change: +1.78%

$EPD$TRGP
Commodities

China's Ethane Dependence Deepens as Panama Canal Risks Grow, Vortexa Says

China's share of global seaborne ethane imports reached 74% in July, highlighting growing concentration in a trade dominated by US supply and increasingly reliant on the Panama Canal, Vortexa analyst Zhuoyi Liu said in a Friday note.Global seaborne ethane imports averaged about 760,000 barrels per day in July, with China taking about 560,000 b/d.On a rolling 12-month basis, China's share rose to about 70% at end-July, from 58% a year earlier and 46% in 2022.The US accounted for about 99% of global seaborne ethane exports in January-July, averaging roughly 670,000 b/d.Almost all shipments originated from four terminals, Enterprise Product Partners' (EPD) Morgan's Point and Neches River, and Energy Transfer's (ET) Nederland and Marcus Hook.Flexible terminals can switch between ethane and LPG depending on economics.In April, ethane's share of combined NGL sendout at three such terminals fell to about 20% from 32% in March as stronger LPG demand redirected capacity.China's import infrastructure is also becoming more concentrated, although new terminals are adding diversity.Zhejiang Satellite's Lianyungang terminal handled about 215,000 b/d in January-July, or 45% of Chinese imports, while Wanhua's Yantai terminal took about 100,000 b/d.Yantai volumes nearly tripled from 2025 as its No. 1 cracker shifted from propane to ethane.A new Nangang terminal serving Sinopec's Tianjin ethylene project also received about 36,000 b/d.The concentration creates vulnerabilities. About 90% of 98 laden US-to-China ethane voyages in January-July transited the Panama Canal.Canal disruptions in 2023-24 and again in April 2026 forced some vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, contributing to weaker Chinese arrivals.China's dependence is likely to deepen before INEOS Project ONE in Antwerp starts operations in the second half of 2027. The project is designed to consume about 90,000 b/d of ethane.Meanwhile, the Panama risk could rise with weather conditions.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an 81% probability of a very strong El Nino in October-December 2026, while Gatun Lake levels are expected to decline through autumn.Price: $38.34, Change: $-0.56, Percent Change: -1.45%

$EPD$ET
Commodities

Midstream Firms Bet on AI, LNG Demand, New Growth Projects, UBS Says

Midstream energy companies are advancing billions of dollars in pipeline and natural gas infrastructure projects as they position for rising power demand, export growth and renewed production activity across key US basins, UBS strategists said in a note on Thursday.UBS analysts said that TC Energy, Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and DT Midstream (DTM) highlighted continued investment opportunities, citing expanding natural gas demand, artificial intelligence-driven efficiency gains and long-term infrastructure needs as key growth drivers.TC Energy plans to sanction between CA$6 billion ($4.28 billion) and CA$8 billion of new projects in 2026, including its Crossroads pipeline initiative, which represents about CA$1 billion of investment.The energy firm has signed precedent agreements with several anchor customers for Crossroads and is in advanced discussions with additional potential shippers. TC Energy expects to make a final investment decision on the project in Q4.TC Energy is also pursuing artificial intelligence initiatives aimed at improving operational efficiency, targeting about CA$100 million in incremental EBITDA benefits in 2026.Management said it has already achieved about half of that target and expects to provide further details later in the year.TC Energy said it sees opportunities to expand within its existing portfolio in Mexico rather than pursue major new investments in the near term.Enterprise Products raised its 2026 growth capital expectations to between $2.9 billion and $3.4 billion, up from its previous estimate of $2.5 billion to $2.9 billion.The energy firm said the increase reflects early spending on long-lead items for several projects, including Midland Plant 11, Delaware Plant 13 and Frac 15.Enterprise expects growth capital spending in 2027 to remain around $3 billion, with about 80% allocated to projects that have already been sanctioned or publicly announced.The company's management said a recovery in Permian Basin production following recent curtailments would be a long-term positive for the region.Enterprise expects to benefit from increased processing activity and higher equity gas production even if producers do not require significantly higher Waha gas prices to bring additional volumes online.The energy firm is also expanding sour gas infrastructure, with construction underway on Train 5 at its Dark Horse facility acquired from Pinon Midstream, while evaluating the potential addition of Train 6.Meanwhile, DT Midstream said its proposed Midwestern Interstate System Transmission project could enter service as early as the end of 2029.The company said the scale and capital requirements of MIST are comparable to its G3 project, with the pipeline expected to benefit from its strategic location near major demand centers and access to multiple supply sources.DT Midstream highlighted the system's connectivity to pipelines including Vector, Alliance, Texas Gas and Tennessee Gas, while potential expansions of Rockies Express Pipeline and Borealis could provide additional supply options.The company said the strategic value of the Midwestern asset would make replacement costs significantly higher than its current installed value, potentially three to four times greater, supporting longer contract renewal periods.The energy firm expects additional opportunities on its Millennium pipeline system as Enbridge's (ENB) Beacon project advances.Price: $54.95, Change: $-0.48, Percent Change: -0.87%

$DTM$ENB$EPD
Commodities

Enterprise Products Q2 Pipeline, Marine Terminal Volumes Reach Record Levels

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) reported Q2 earnings Thursday, showing record equivalent pipeline transportation volumes of 14.7 million barrels per day, up from 13.6 million b/d a year earlier.Net pipeline transportation volumes for natural gas liquids, crude oil, petrochemicals and refined products increased to 9.1 million b/d for the quarter ended June 30, up from 8.2 million b/d a year earlier.Net natural gas pipeline transportation volumes rose to 21,048 billion British thermal units per day from 20,405 billion Btu/d a year earlier, according to the company.Net marine terminal volumes for natural gas liquids, crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals increased to 2.8 million b/d, up from 2.1 million b/d in the year-ago quarter, Enterprise Products said.Within the natural gas liquids segment, natural gas liquids pipeline transportation volumes increased to 4.9 million b/d in Q2, up from 4.6 million b/d a year earlier. Natural gas liquids marine terminal volumes rose to 1.2 million b/d, up from 942,000 b/d.Natural gas liquids fractionation volumes increased to 1.9 million b/d from 1.7 million b/d a year earlier, while equity natural gas liquids-equivalent production volumes rose to 230,000 b/d from 214,000 b/d.Fee-based natural gas processing volumes increased to 7.5 billion cubic feet per day from 7.3 Bcf/d a year earlier, while natural gas processing inlet volumes rose to 8.6 Bcf/d from 8.5 Bcf/d, according to the company.Within the crude oil pipeline segment, crude oil pipeline transportation volumes increased to 3 million b/d for Q2, up from 2.6 million b/d a year earlier. Crude oil marine terminal volumes rose to 1.1 million b/d from 811,000 b/d, according to the company.Within the petrochemical and refined products services segment, propylene production volumes increased to 134,000 b/d, up from 118,000 b/d a year earlier. Butane isomerization volumes declined to 115,000 b/d from 122,000 b/d, according to the company.Standalone DIB processing volumes increased to 228,000 b/d from 186,000 b/d a year earlier. Octane enhancement and related plant sales volumes edged down to 37,000 b/d from 39,000 b/d, the company said.Pipeline transportation volumes, primarily refined products and petrochemicals, rose to 1.2 million b/d in the quarter from 1 million b/d a year earlier, according to the company, while refined products and petrochemicals marine terminal volumes increased to 422,000 b/d from 328,000 b/d a year earlier, Enterprise Products said.The company expects 2026 growth capital spending, net of asset-sale proceeds, to range between $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion, alongside about $600 million in sustaining capital expenditures.Price: $38.33, Change: $-0.34, Percent Change: -0.88%

$EPD
Wire

Enterprise Products Partners Seen Posting Strong Q2 on Higher Liquids Margins Export Demand, RBC Says

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is likely to report a strong Q2, helped by wider margins on natural gas liquids and firm demand for export cargoes, RBC Capital Markets said Tuesday in a report.Enterprise is also expected to benefit from improved economics for converting normal butane into higher-value gasoline blendstock, which strengthened during the quarter, the report said.RBC raised its Q2 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $2.69 billion, citing better commodity pricing and stronger marketing results. It also increased its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $10.77 billion from $10.69 billion, and its 2027 outlook to $11.32 billion from $11.28 billion.Q2 results are expected around July 28.RBC said it will listen for updates on export volumes, activity levels at Enterprise's liquids-processing plants, pipeline utilization, and any comments on whether current pricing trends may extend into H2.RBC maintained its outperform rating on Enterprise stock and its $42 price target.Price: $36.62, Change: $-0.14, Percent Change: -0.39%

$EPD
Oil & Energy

Demand for North American LPG Will Remain 'Solid' Even if Hormuz Reopens, RBC Says

Demand for North America's liquefied petroleum gas will remain "solid" both in the near- and long term, driven by restocking and building of strategic reserves, even if flow of Middle Eastern LPG through the Strait of Hormuz returns, RBC Capital Markets said Tuesday.Attacks linked to the US-Iran war have damaged LPG-related infrastructure in the Middle East, cutting LPG production and making it difficult to immediately return to pre-war supply levels even if the Strait fully reopens.Infrastructure damage in Qatar, Oman, and Iran has curbed LPG output by around 170,000 barrels per day, with further curtailment likely from reported attacks on eight other LPG sites, according to the International Energy Agency, as cited by RBC.Middle Eastern LPG is primarily exported to Asia, where "normal" demand growth is expected as buyers restock and seek to maintain larger strategic reserves, the research firm said.Cooking is a key LPG demand driver in the region, according to the IEA, with about 80% of Indian households and 90% of Indonesian homes using the fuel for this purpose.RBC noted that terminal operators in North America are "well-positioned" to benefit in the near term from elevated restocking demand, "and especially over the longer term if global LPG buyers enhance their supply diversity by looking to North America."The investment bank expects AltaGas can capture most upside, given the company's LPG growth projects and exposure to the spot market.RBC believes that the greatest upside for AltaGas is "if it can secure new long-term tolling contracts to underpin further expansions of its Ridley Island Energy Export Facility." The company operates two joint venture terminals in Prince Rupert, British Columbia and owns an LPG export facility in Ferndale, Washington.For US Gulf Coast LPG export terminal operators, including Energy Transfer (ET), Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), ONEOK (OKE), and Targa (TRGP), RBC sees "clearer" prospects for additional long-term contracts at higher rates. Additional upside could also materialize if there is demand for capacity expansion, it said.RBC highlighted that alleviation of oversupply concerns prior to the US-Iran war will have a "positive" impact on stocks of LPG companies on the US Gulf Coast, where the LPG market is expansive and where buyers will most likely turn for supplies.

$EPD$ET$OKE$TRGP
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Cuts View On Enterprise Products Partners To Hold From Buy

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Our downgrade (to Hold from Buy) is on valuation, with shares up 21% YTD and now trading close to our target price. We maintain our 12-month target price at $40, a 10.9x multiple of enterprise value to projected '27 EBITDA, slightly above EPD's historical forward average. The applied multiple is a small premium to EPD's historical forward average, but is merited in our view by rising demand for U.S. midstream assets. Such assets can help bring more crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas to export terminals at a time when Middle East-sourced energy is constrained. We raise our '26 EPS estimate by $0.06 to $2.90, and '27's by $0.03 to $3.23. Capex spend looks relatively high in '26, but should drop off meaningfully in '27. Units yield 5.7%, adding to total return potential. We see EPD with the combination of growth capex and dividends chewing up 89% of operating cash flow in '26, about in line with peers, and implying a modest margin for error.

$EPD
Commodities

Enterprise Product Partners Q1 Processed Volumes Rise YOY

Midstream services company Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) highlighted record natural gas inlet processing volumes in its Q1 results on Tuesday, helped by a 9% increase in plant inlet flows in the Permian Basin, to reach 8.3 billion cubic feet per day.The company said marine terminal volumes also reached a record after climbing 15% to 2.3 million barrels per day while natural gas liquids output grew 16% to 1.9 million bpd.It said a "strong start" to 2026 saw it break 12 operational records for volumes handled, helped by the start-up of new assets over the past year, such as the Bahia NGL pipeline, NGL fractionator 14 and three Permian natural gas processing plants.Enterprise Product Partners brought the Mentone West 2 gas processing plant online during the quarter and announced plans for two 300 million cubic feet per day natural gas processing plants in the Midland and Delaware basins. Those two projects will increase gas processing capacity by 12%, it said.Capital investments during the quarter totaled $988 million, with $783 million of that sum for growth capital projects and $205 million for sustaining capital expenditures, it said.Guidance for growth capital spending in 2026 is seen between $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion net of proceeds coming from asset sales totaling $596 million, the company said.

$EPD
Research

Research Alert: Epd: Permian Growth Remains Strong, But A Slight Miss In Q1

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) kicked off 2026 with Q1 earnings per unit of $0.68, missing consensus by $0.05, though adjusted EBITDA of $2.7B rose 10% Y/Y, reflecting strong underlying performance. Volume growth remained robust across key segments, with record natural gas processing inlet volumes of 8.3 bcf/d up 7% Y/Y and NGL pipeline volumes of 4.9 mmb/d up 10% Y/Y. Growth opportunities in natural gas processing look healthy, with plans for two additional processing plants in 2027 to increase total capacity by 12% and capture growing Permian production. Management noted natural gas and NGL production growth is expected to be 1.6x that of crude oil production growth. The company sees 2026 growth capex of $2.3B-$2.6B, down from original plans of $2.5B-$2.9B. With recent projects in service, we see EPD entering "harvesting mode" with meaningful free cash flow expansion ahead. We think demand for midstream services is increasingly fueled by data center expansion requiring more natural gas pipeline capacity.

$EPD
Commodities

Kinder Morgan Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Lifts 2026 Outlook, RBC Says

Kinder Morgan's (KMI) Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, supported by stronger volumes, winter weather tailwinds and firmer commodity prices, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Friday.RBC analysts said it now expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA to come in at least 3% above its prior budget, reflecting stronger operating conditions across its network.However, despite the upbeat results, Kinder Morgan shares edged lower following the release, which analysts attributed to limited backlog growth, uncertainty surrounding its Western Gateway project and investor positioning ahead of other earnings in the sector.The broader midstream space has continued to outperform this year. The Alerian MLP Index rose 1.6% in the week ended April 23, outpacing the S&P 500, which gained 1%. Year-to-date, the midstream benchmark is up 14.5%, compared with a 3.8% rise in the S&P 500.RBC said that strength in the sector has been supported by steady cash flows and growing demand for natural gas infrastructure, even as commodity prices remain volatile.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude rose about 2% on the week to about $97 per barrel, while Henry Hub natural gas prices slipped about 2% to $2.59 per million British thermal units.Cheniere Energy (LNG), in contrast, declined 2.1%, in what RBC analysts said could reflect positioning ahead of earnings and a rotation into other midstream names.Master limited partnerships modestly outperformed C-corporations during the week, with MLPs up 1.2% versus a 1% gain for corporates.Going forward, investors are focused on upcoming earnings from Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Oneok (OKE), both scheduled to report on April 28.Market participants will be watching for commentary on the impact of higher commodity prices, producer activity, project ramp-ups, export demand and capital allocation plans, as well as the effects of winter weather and evolving price spreads across key basins.RBC analysts flagged potential read-throughs for other operators, including Williams Companies (WMB), Energy Transfer (ET), Targa Resources (TRGP) and Sunoco (SUN), citing expected tailwinds from seasonal demand, marketing optimization and commodity price volatility.

$EPD$ET$KMI$LNG$OKE$SUN$TRGP$WMB

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