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May Prediction Market Volumes Hit Record as Kalshi Share Grows, Macquarie Says
US Markets

May Prediction Market Volumes Hit Record as Kalshi Share Grows, Macquarie Says

Prediction markets logged record volumes in May, with leader Kalshi growing its market share, though certain regulatory issues continue to be core to the industry's long-term sustainability, Macquarie said in a note e-mailed Wednesday.Prediction market volumes amounted to about $31.17 billion last month amid continued momentum, with market leader Kalshi boosting its implied volume market share to 57% from 50% in April, according to Macquarie.On Tuesday, DraftKings (DKNG) reported a 34% month-over-month surge in annualized predictions volumes in May to $3.1 billion. Kalshi's total volume was about $17.91 billion, with almost half coming from sports contracts, Macquarie said."We note that it is still very early days for (DraftKings') predictions launch, and we expect its market share to consistently rise through the year," Chad Beynon, senior gaming, lodging and theatres analyst at Macquarie, said in a note to clients.Recently, Rush Street Interactive (RSI) applied to become a regulated designated contract market, joining the likes of Kalshi and DraftKings."The move provides a potential federally regulated alternative if state sports betting faces tighter regulation," Beynon said. "More broadly, it highlights a growing openness among gaming operators toward regulated event-contract platforms."With online sports betting operators now leaning into their own prediction market products, the main questions for investors continues to be around the long-term product overlap between the two, as well as potential regulatory changes, according to the note.Earlier this week, Sportradar Group (SRAD) signed a multiyear global agreement with Kalshi, under which it becomes an official data and solutions provider for Kalshi.The deal marks the "first meaningful step" by Sportradar into the regulated prediction market space, according to Macquarie. It also reinforces the Sportradar and Genius Sports (GENI) "positioning as a 'picks-and-shovels' infrastructure provider to both traditional sportsbooks and now (prediction markets)," Beynon said.Price: $29.07, Change: $+1.48, Percent Change: +5.35%

$DKNG$GENI$RSI$SRAD
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Advance Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks were higher late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) increasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) up 0.1%.In corporate news, Yeti (YETI) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Thursday as the outdoor products company recorded better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results. Its shares climbed 5%.DraftKings (DKNG) faces a positive catalyst path from the FIFA World Cup driving incremental wagers during a low period over the next few months, Morgan Stanley said in a note. DraftKings shares rose nearly 1%.Tesla (TSLA) Chief Executive Elon Musk's SpaceX is facing opposition from leaders of three major US public pension systems over what they described as the company's "extreme" governance structure ahead of its planned initial public offering, Reuters reported. Tesla shares were down 0.3%.Paramount Skydance's (PSKY) acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) will be carefully scrutinized by European regulators, CNBC reported Thursday, citing a letter sent to Paramount Skydance Chief Executive David Ellison from a group of US and European lawmakers it viewed. Paramount shares fell 3.1%, and Warner Bros. was decreasing 0.5%.

$DKNG$PSKY$TSLA$WBD$YETI
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were higher late Thursday afternoon, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) increasing 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) up 0.1%.In corporate news, DraftKings (DKNG) faces a positive catalyst path from the FIFA World Cup driving incremental wagers during a low period over the next few months, Morgan Stanley said in a note. DraftKings shares rose 1%.

$DKNG
Wire

DraftKings Faces Upside From FIFA World Cup Driving Incremental Wagers Over Next Few Months, Morgan Stanley Says

DraftKings (DKNG) faces a positive catalyst path from the FIFA World Cup driving incremental wagers during a low period over the next few months, Morgan Stanley said in a research note emailed Thursday.Morgan Stanley said it is now forecasting DraftKings Q2 and Q3 handle growth of about 8% and 6%, respectively, versus 5% and 6% previously, to reflect a better than expected April and the World Cup coming in June. Fiscal 2026 and 2027 handle growth is pegged at 6% and 5%, respectively.Investments in prediction markets may dampen fiscal 2026, but could set the stage for greater flow-through, Morgan Stanley said, adding that US states appear to be finally seeing some progress on iGaming legislation, which is not embedded in the company's stock.Morgan Stanley said its 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization estimate moves to $767 million from $791 million, below the mid-point of the company's guidance range, as DraftKings is expected to spend towards the higher end of its $200 million to $300 million estimated spend range.Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $39 from $40 and maintained its overweight rating.Price: $24.95, Change: $-0.08, Percent Change: -0.32%

$DKNG
Research

Research Alert: Draftkings Beats Estimates; Maintains Full-year Guidance

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:DKNG delivered solid Q1 results with revenue up 17% to $1.646B and positive GAAP net income of $21.1M vs. a $33.9M loss in the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA surged 64% to $167.9M. Sportsbook revenue jumped 24% to $1.095B with net revenue margin expanding 140 basis points to 7.8%, demonstrating enhanced pricing power and favorable sports outcomes. We are impressed with continued momentum in the company's profitability push but worry about stagnant monthly active user growth and execution in prediction markets. Management maintained 2026 guidance for revenue of $6.5B-$6.9B and adjusted EBITDA of $700M-$900M, emphasizing plans to invest aggressively in Sports Predictions. MUPs declined 4% to 4.2M due to the Texas lottery exit but increased 2% excluding lottery operations, while average revenue per MUP jumped 21% to $131. The company ended with $999.4M in cash and shares trade at 16x consensus 2026 EBITDA estimates.

$DKNG
Wire

DraftKings Integrating Market-Making Into Predictions a Key Catalyst for Higher Marketing Spend, Oppenheimer Says

DraftKings (DKNG) integrating market-making into Predictions is seen as a key catalyst for increased marketing spend, as it could generate higher lifetime value and customer acquisition cost thresholds, Oppenheimer said in a note emailed Wednesday.The brokerage expects Q1 revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $1.6 billion and $143 million, respectively, compared with Street consensus of $1.63 billion and $150 million. It forecasts Q2 revenue and EBITDA of $1.67 billion and $284 million, compared with Street estimates of $1.57 billion and $271 million, according to the note.Oppenheimer believes April had strong holds, and anecdotal usage suggests levers around profit-boosts and early wins could support May handle as comparisons ease.The firm said it has yet to see Predictions iterations that command higher marketing spend into the World Cup, but that could change if market-making accelerates.DraftKings is set to report Q1 results Thursday.Oppenheimer maintained an outperform rating on DraftKings with a $35 price target.Price: $24.58, Change: $+0.40, Percent Change: +1.68%

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