$DK

US Gasoline Cracks Fall Below 5-Year Average Despite Refiner Rally, TPH Says

US gasoline cracks dropped $6 per barrel to $18/bbl last week after inventory data showed a surprise 3.4 million-barrel build compared with expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel draw, TPH Energy Research said Monday.Falling below the seasonal five-year average, gasoline margins weakened while US diesel cracks slipped $1 to $40 per barrel following a 1.5 million-barrel inventory increase versus expectations for a 2 million-barrel decline.Posting the sharpest regional decline, Midwest 3-2-1 cracks fell $15/bbl, while gasoline cracks in Northwest Europe and Singapore dropped $3/bbl and $5/bbl, respectively.Diesel margins in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased $5/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, while the Brent-WTI differential narrowed to $2/bbl from $3/bbl.Alaska North Slope crude widened its premium to Brent by $2/bbl and traded at a $12/bbl premium, bucking the broader trend of narrowing crude differentials.Among recent industry developments, Russia's 160,000-barrel-per-day Tyumen refinery suffered a fire, while Dangote outlined plans to expand refining capacity from 700,000 b/d to 750,000 b/d over the next 30 months.Separately, over 300 vessels reportedly contacted Iran about transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Chevron's (CVX) California refineries received Strategic Petroleum Reserve barrels, according to TPH.Despite softer refining margins and weak inventory data, refiner equities gained 3.5% during the week and outperformed the S&P 500's 2.6% decline, TPH said.Delek (DK) led the group with an 8.5% advance as investor interest increased ahead of expected 2025 Small Refinery Exemption decisions, which TPH estimates could amount to about 23% of the company's market capitalization.On the valuation front, refiners traded at 6.0x next-12-month consensus EV/EBITDA, below the sector's three-year average multiple of 6.5x, TPH said.Price: $48.85, Change: $+0.57, Percent Change: +1.18%

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

Refiners Slide as US-Iran Peace Hopes Pressure Crack Spreads, TPH Energy Says

Refining equities and product crack spreads declined last week as reports of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations pressured margins and softened sector sentiment, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said the refining group fell 1.3%, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.9% gain, with high-beta names leading losses.PBF Energy (PBF) dropped 4.9%, while Phillips 66 (PSX) outperformed the group with a 1.6% rise, making it the lone notable gainer among diversified refiners.TPH said the decline was driven by a sharp compression in refined product cracks. US gasoline cracks fell $12 to $25 per barrel, while US diesel cracks declined $7 to $45/bbl.Regional softness was most pronounced in the Midwest, Midcontinent and Rockies, TPH analysts said, reflecting broad-based margin pressure.International cracks were mixed. Northwest Europe gasoline and diesel eased by $1 and $3/bbl, respectively, while Singapore markets moved against the trend, with gasoline up $3/bbl and diesel rising $5/bbl.Forward curves also reflected the softer tone. The 2026 gasoline strip moved $1 lower, while diesel was unchanged.On the crude side, the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $3/bbl from $5 previously, reducing a key advantage for US refiners that benefit from discounted domestic crude.Blair said grades, including Mars, Louisiana Light Sweet and Bakken crude strengthened, while Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Mexico's Maya crude and Alaska North Slope held largely steady.Macro and industry developments added to the mixed backdrop. US regular gasoline prices eased 5 cents to $4.45 per gallon. India raised retail gasoline prices in response to war-related supply dynamics involving Iran.Kuwait's refinery throughput has reportedly fallen by half since the Middle East conflict began, while US jet fuel production has climbed above 2 million barrels per day in recent weeks.On corporate activity, Delek US Holdings (DK) disclosed a $100 million share repurchase authorization from REH. However, despite the recent pullback in refining equities, TPH said most refiners continue to trade above their three-year average forward EBITDA valuation multiples, except for Phillips 66 and Valero Energy (VLO).

Delek Us Holdings Insider Sold Shares Worth $4,920,289, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Ezra Uzi Yemin, Director, on April 29, 2026, sold 105,968 shares in Delek Us Holdings (DK) for $4,920,289. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Yemin has control over a total of 692,102 common shares of the company, with 210,161 shares held directly and 481,941 controlled indirectly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1694426/000136109126000007/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1777680132.xml

Delek US Q1 Volumes Decline, Signals Recovery With Higher Q2 Throughput

Downstream energy firm Delek US (DK) reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday, showing total average throughput of 260,030 barrels per day, down from 289,203 b/d a year earlier.Crude throughput averaged 238,338 b/d for the quarter ended March 31, down from 272,183 b/d a year earlier.Other feedstocks throughput averaged 21,692 b/d for the quarter, compared with 17,020 b/d a year earlier, the company said.The company reported that total sales volumes for the quarter averaged 274,376 b/d, down from 294,892 b/d a year earlier.Delek expects total crude throughput to range between 283,000 b/d and 303,000 b/d in Q2, with total throughput across its refining system to range between 293,000 b/d and 313,000 b/d.The company completed the Big Spring refinery turnaround during the quarter, enhancing reliability, improving product yields, and increasing flexibility for higher-octane output, supporting future margin capture.Delek Logistics advanced key midstream projects, including the successful drilling of its first acid gas injection well at the Libby facility in the Delaware Basin, strengthening sour gas processing and handling capabilities.The company continues to ramp up the Libby 2 plant in the Delaware Basin, expanding gas processing capacity and supporting long-term growth in gathering and processing operations.Price: $46.08, Change: $+5.04, Percent Change: +12.27%

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Edge Higher Pre-Bell Wednesday

Energy stocks were edging higher pre-bell Wednesday, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) advancing by 1.2%.The United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 3.4% and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 2.4% lower.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 3.7% higher at $103.58 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Global benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil rose 3.6% to $115.29 per barrel, and natural gas futures were down 2.5% at $2.62 per 1 million British Thermal Units.TotalEnergies (TTE) shares were up 1% after the company posted higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.Phillips 66 (PSX) stock was up more than 1% after the company reported that it swung to Q1 adjusted earnings.Delek US (DK) shares were up more than 4% after the company posted a swing to Q1 adjusted earnings as net revenue increased during the period.

Delek US Swings to Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rises

Delek US (DK) reported Q1 adjusted earnings Wednesday of $0.08 per share, swinging from a loss of $2.32 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected a loss of $1.42.Net revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $2.65 billion, compared with $2.64 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $2.33 billion.

Earnings Flash (DK) Delek US Posts Q1 Net Revenue $2.65B, vs. FactSet Est of $2.33B

Earnings Flash (DK) Delek US Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.08, vs. FactSet Est of $1.42 Loss

Refining Margins Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Anytime Soon, Morgan Stanley Says

Refining margins are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels anytime soon, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, due to refinery damage, the time required to normalize trade flows, and the need to rebuild inventories, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Friday note to clients.Analysts said first-quarter financial results for refining companies will be pressured by lower capture rates amid still-tight crude differentials, planned and unplanned maintenance, and derivative headwinds, partially offset by stronger secondary products.Morgan Stanley said near-term U.S. refining margins have roughly doubled since the start of the Iran conflict and now sit near levels last reached in 2022 and 2023.On Phillips 66 (PSX), analysts upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.They said the chemicals business is a key factor that sets the company apart from the rest of the sector, with earnings from the segment expected to rise to about $1.1 billion from $352 million. They also raised the price target to $174 from $147.Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and raised its price target to $233 from $200. It also maintained an overweight rating on HF Sinclair (DINO) and increased its price target to $66 from $57.On Valero Energy (VLO), Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and raised the price target to $222 from $182. It also maintained an equal-weight rating on Delek US Holdings (DK) and raised its price target to $40 from $38.On PBF Energy (PBF), Morgan Stanley maintained an underweight rating and raised the price target to $34 from $27.Price: $224.00, Change: $+2.90, Percent Change: +1.31%

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on Delek US Holdings to $40 From $38, Keeps Equalweight Rating

Delek US Holdings (DK) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $49.38, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

Delek US Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $0.255 a Share, Payable on May 8 to Shareholders of Record on May 1

UBS Adjusts Delek US Holdings Price Target to $48 From $42, Maintains Neutral Rating

Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $47.79, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)