Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of Carpenter Technology To Buy From Strong Buy
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We increase our 12-month target price by $7 to $508, on an EV/EBITDA of 18.5x our FY 28 (June) EBITDA estimate, in line with CRS's average forward EV/EBITDA during the trailing 12 months of 18.6x. We raise our EPS estimates: FY 26 by $0.07 to $10.64, FY 27 by $0.62 to $13.84 and FY 28 by $0.08 to $16.60. CRS remains exceptionally well-positioned as the aerospace cycle accelerates, with structural demand inflecting and engine orders surging amid tightening nickel-based superalloy supply. We expect sustained pricing power and further margin expansion as SAO segment profitability targets 40%+ longer-term. The $400M brownfield expansion adds only modest capacity versus industry deficits, preserving favorable supply-demand dynamics through FY 28+. However, shares now trade well above historical EV/EBITDA multiples, prompting our downgrade despite strong fundamentals. After the 112% increase in share price in the last year, we think CRS is baking in most of the positive fundamentals, leaving less potential upside.