TSX Closer: The Index Edges Down, But Still Near Its Record Close As CIBC Flags Its Top 10 Best Ideas For June
The Toronto Stock Exchange succumbed to some late selling pressure Monday on some profit taking as it trades shy of the record close it a week ago, while CIBC said it continues to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer and picked out its 10 'Best Ideas' for June.The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 34.25 points, or 0.1%, to 34,734.89, leaving it about 100 points shy of last Monday's record finish of 34,830. Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech, up 6%, and then Base Metals, up 2.6%, and Energy, up 2.1%. In contrast, Financial was down 1.3% and Utilities was 0.5% lower.CIBC published its Top-10 Best Ideas for June, while noting its best ideas for the month of May returned 2.28% and marginally trailed the benchmark by six basis points. Year to date, CIBC's monthly recommended baskets have returned 15.32%, reflecting 571 bps of alpha over the benchmark TSX index. Comparatively, the TSX and SPX indices have returned 9.61% and 10.8% respectively, it noted.The following represent CIBC's top-10 best ideas for the month of June: Brookfield Renewable (BEP-UN.TO), Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-UN.TO), Capital Power (CPX.TO), Celestica (CLS.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), Capstone Copper (CS.TO), Lundin Mining (LUN.TO), Linamar (LNR.TO), Keyera (KEY.TO), and TFI International (TFII.TO).CIBC said: "As we head into the summer months, equity markets continue to show resilience on the surface and are still being driven by momentum. Indices are at new price discovery highs and climbing the wall of worry, while trends are looking good and remain intact. The same quantitative and technical signals that have worked from the March lows continue to reward investors -- momentum is doing what momentum tends to do, which is to build upon itself and force buyers in."That said, beneath the surface, not much has changed from a breadth perspective -- still mediocre. The magnitude of the recent narrow sector concentration in mega-cap technology remains dominant, but with some spillover effects in broader technology sub-sectors with AI-related tailwinds, technology may be broadening out internally (hardware, memory, semis, cyber, clouds, and even software now). U.S. technology did all the heavy lifting this past month -- technology and its sub-sectors are the only ones that are mostly populating our leadership rotation quad. Given the one- and three-month timespans of the relative-strength leadership in technology (within quad 1), it would be reasonable to suggest that the next bigger development may be about transitioning into a lower quad (quad 3, consolidation). This may set the stage for the market to begin to shift its character throughout the summertime, moving away from simple "beta-chasing" and back toward a "late-cycle"-like rotation environment, arguably similar to late Q4/25 and early Q1/26. This does not imply an imminent negative reversal. If breadth-broadening can begin to emerge, uptrends may establish better durability. Otherwise, indices may lose trend and get stuck in a range."CIBC noted at the start of the year, it used its price discovery framework to calculate a trading range for the S&P 500 index between a lower band of 7,490 and an upper band of 7,790 for 2026. With the index now around 7,580, approaching the upper end of that range, completing what was previously a measured move calculation, the bank said. This doesn't end the bull trend, but it does mean risk reward for chasing upside has become less attractive at current levels, it added."Overall, we remain cautiously constructive on risk assets and continue to retain an upside bias for equities through early to mid summer, supported by the recent solid Q2 earnings growth trends. However, once again, beneath the surface, breadth conditions are not yet showing affirmative follow-through expansion as leadership remains increasingly narrow and concentrated within the same group of stocks, and trading volumes are historically thinner in summertime which may reduce liquidity and force volatility. In our opinion, the dominant leading factors like Growth, Beta, and Momentum are likely to cool as the market transitions into a consolidation phase (quad 3) throughout summertime."It is for the above mentioned reasons that we continue to favour a balanced, barbell style with directional setups for our recommended portfolio selections throughout the summer months, rather than chasing beta."Of commodities, gold fell off a two-week high by midafternoon Monday as the dollar rose after fresh attacks between the United States and Iran boosted oil prices, reviving inflation worries. Gold for July delivery was down US$81.70 to US$4,511.30 per ounce, after rising to a highest since May 14 on Friday.But West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged 5.5%, climbing off a six-week low on heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S., dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock. The July WTI Crude Oil Contract closed up US$4.80 to settles at US$92.16 per barrel, while August Brent oil rose US$3.86 to US$94.88.