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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of Capital One Financial Corporation To Hold From Buy

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month target price by $60 to $205, applying a forward P/E of 8.6x our 2027 EPS estimate, in line with the 10-year historical average of 8.7x. We reduce our 2026 adjusted EPS view to $19.56 from $19.87 and cut our 2027 EPS estimate to $23.74 from $24.46. We lower our outlook on COF primarily due to macroeconomic concerns. The ongoing Middle East conflict is driving inflation above wage growth, pressuring consumer finances. Given COF's significant consumer exposure through its credit card and auto lending businesses, we believe near-term headwinds will largely offset the benefits from its expansion into higher-income segments and operational improvements from the Discover Financial acquisition. Consequently, we now forecast 2026 net charge-offs of approximately 330 bps, up from our previous estimate of 300 bps. Importantly, COF enters this environment from a position of relative strength, with a robust CET1 ratio of 14.4% and a strong allowance coverage ratio of 5.28%.

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Consumer Finance Companies Poised to Meet Outlooks Amid Acceleration in Spending, Loan Trends, RBC Says
Wire

Consumer Finance Companies Poised to Meet Outlooks Amid Acceleration in Spending, Loan Trends, RBC Says

Several major US consumer finance companies are tracking towards their full-year outlooks amid a slight acceleration in the year-over-year consumer spending and loan trends, RBC Capital Markets said in a note e-mailed Monday.Consumer finance companies' first-quarter results have been "durable" and in line with the brokerage's expectations, with credit metrics showing continued improvement on a yearly basis amid consumer resiliency, Jon Arfstrom, associate director of US research at RBC, said in a note to clients."Our view is that investor expectations for spending volumes and loan growth have been gradually rising, which aligns with management-provided 2026 outlooks," Arfstrom wrote. "We also believe that the improvement in credit trends and the healthy economic environment will allow card issuers to thoughtfully lean into growth opportunities."American Express (AXP) is still RBC's preferred stock in the card space as it continues to deliver "peer-leading" bottom- and top-line growth, Arfstrom said.Last month, American Express posted better-than-expected first-quarter results and reiterated its full-year outlook."Card issuers are still reporting improving delinquency and net charge-offs on a year-over-year basis," Arfstrom said in the note. "We expect this trend to continue in the near term, and several management teams are now pointing to the low end of prior NCOs guidance ranges."Ally Financial (ALLY) has seen "solid" auto origination activity, while its credit keeps improving, with margin expansion likely to drive "sustained" earnings improvement, Arfstrom wrote.Capital One Financial's (COF) recent combination with Discover Financial Services is yielding "early revenue synergies, though with management focused on the longer strategic positioning of the company, we expect near-term investment activity to be an expense headwind," according to the note.So far this year, consumer finance stocks have underperformed the broader market amid macro concerns and sentiment, "company-specific headwinds," and concerns regarding a proposed interest rate cap for card issuers, Arfstrom said."In total, we remain positive on the fundamental outlooks, and see support for higher valuations and stock prices as our forecasts are realized," Arfstrom wrote.Price: $313.03, Change: $-3.00, Percent Change: -0.95%

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Wire

UBS Adjusts Capital One Financial Price Target to $270 From $283

Capital One Financial Corp (COF) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $255.81, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $194.16, Change: $+4.48, Percent Change: +2.36%

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Wire

Rothschild & Co Redburn Adjusts Capital One Financial PT to $275 From $290, Maintains Buy Rating

Capital One Financial Corp (COF) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $256.59, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $191.50, Change: $-0.60, Percent Change: -0.31%

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion On Shares Of Capital One Financial Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:After digesting Q1 earnings, we reduce our 12-month target price by $25 to $265, applying a forward P/E of 10.8x our 2027 EPS estimate, above the 10-year historical average of 8.7x to reflect COF's push into wealthier cohorts and dynamic operating model following the acquisition of Discover Financial. We reduce our 2026 adjusted EPS view to $19.87 from $21.22 and cut our 2027 EPS estimate to $24.46 from $25.68. We remain optimistic about the stock despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Strong employment and real wage growth (wages rising faster than inflation) are supporting healthy credit quality across both COF's credit card and auto loan portfolios. Management's commentary is also encouraging, suggesting that the net interest margin compression seen in Q1 is temporary. Looking ahead, the Discover acquisition should continue delivering structural improvements such as higher net interest margins, better operational efficiency, and stable credit quality. Shares yield 1.6%.

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Commodities

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Wednesday Amid Extended US-Iran Ceasefire

The broad market exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.6%, and the actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was 0.7% higher in Wednesday's premarket activity as US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran.US stock futures were also higher, with S&P 500 Index futures up 0.6%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advancing 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.7% before the start of regular trading.US mortgage applications rose 7.9% in the week ended April 17 as lower borrowing costs drove gains in both refinancing and purchase activity, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed Wednesday.The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey for April is scheduled for release at 10 am ET, followed by the weekly EIA domestic petroleum inventories report at 10:30 am ET.In premarket activity, bitcoin was up by 4.3%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, the cryptocurrency fund ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was 4.5% higher, Ether ETF (EETH) advanced 4.1%, and Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) gained 1.8%.Power Play:IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) advanced 1%, while the Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) was up 2% and the iShares US Industrials ETF (IYJ) was inactive.Target Hospitality (TH) stock was down more than 9% before the opening bell, a day after the company said its selling shareholders priced a secondary offering of 7 million shares at $14 apiece for about $98 million in gross proceeds.Winners and Losers:TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) advanced 1%, and the iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) was 1.2% higher, while the iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 1.1%. Among semiconductor ETFs, the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) increased by 1.8%, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose by 1.5%.TE Connectivity (TEL) shares were down more than 5% in Wednesday's premarket activity despite the company delivering strong fiscal Q2 results that beat estimates after CEO Terrence Curtin told Reuters that persistent Middle East conflict could force price hikes to offset rising material costs and supply chain disruptions.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) advanced 0.3%, the Vanguard Health Care Index Fund (VHT) was up 0.4%, while the iShares US Healthcare ETF (IYH) was flat. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) was up 0.7%.Moderna (MRNA) stock was down more than 1% premarket, a day after the company said it administered the initial doses to participants in the US and the UK for a phase 3 clinical trial evaluating its experimental mRNA-1018 pandemic flu vaccine.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.3%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) was up 1.1%, while its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), was 0.8% lower.Capital One Financial (COF) shares were down more than 1% pre-bell after the company overnight reported Q1 results that fell short of analyst expectations.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was up 0.1% and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (VDC) was 0.4% higher. The iShares US Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) was flat. The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 0.7%. The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was down 0.1%, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) increased 0.6%.Alibaba Group (BABA) shares were up more than 1% pre-bell after The Information reported the company and Tencent are in talks to invest in DeepSeek, which is seeking funding at a valuation of over $20 billion.EnergyThe iShares US Energy ETF (IYE) was flat, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was down by 0.1%.NexGen Energy (NXE) stock was up more than 1% before the opening bell after the company said it completed its 2026 winter drill program at the Patterson Corridor East discovery, extending the vertical extent of the high-grade uranium zone by 33% to 550 meters.CommoditiesFront-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil retreated by 0.4% to $89.29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas declined by 0.8% to $2.67 per 1 million British Thermal Units. The United States Oil Fund (USO) increased by 0.9%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was 0.4% higher.Gold futures for May were down by 0.4% at $4,812.10 an ounce on the Comex. Silver futures retreated by 1.1% to $79.73 an ounce. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was 0.4% lower, and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 0.7%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BABA$BETH$BITO$COF$EEM$EETH$EXI$FAS$FAZ$GLD$IBB$IGM$IGV$IPK$IVV$IWM$IYE$IYH$IYJ$IYK$IYW$MRNA$NXE$PMR$QQQ$RTH$SLV$SOXX$SPY$TEL$TH$UNG$USO$VDC$VHT$VIS$XLE$XLF$XLI$XLK$XLP$XLV$XLY$XRT$XSD
Research

Research Alert: Cof: Q1 Earnings Miss As The Net Interest Margin Disappoints

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:COF reported mixed Q1 2026 results, with operating EPS of $4.42 vs. $4.06 prior year missing consensus by $0.15, marking the second consecutive earnings miss. Revenue of $15.2B also missed estimates by $134M, with results not directly comparable due to the Discover Financial acquisition completed May 18, 2025. Net interest margin compressed 39 bps to 7.87% amid the competitive deposit pricing environment, though it remains well above pre-Discover levels, while total net revenue declined 2% sequentially. The provision for credit losses decreased modestly to $4.1B, while 30+ day delinquency rates improved 35 bps to 3.24%, suggesting potential credit quality improvement ahead. Period-end loans declined 1% to $448B, reflecting continued selective credit tightening, while deposits grew 3% to $489B, providing stable funding. The CET1 ratio of 14.4% remains well above regulatory requirements, providing ample flexibility for future growth and capital returns.

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US Markets

Consumer Finance Firms Likely Faced Seasonal Loan Headwinds in First Quarter, RBC Says

US consumer finance companies likely faced seasonal headwinds on loans in the first quarter, but growth is expected to pick up through the rest of the year, RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Friday.Data through February indicate an expected seasonal decline in loan balances, with slight improvement in year-over-year growth, Jon Arfstrom, associate director of US research at RBC, wrote."Although we see very limited direct impacts from recent macro volatility, we remain mindful of the risks of sustained higher energy prices on consumers," Arfstrom wrote. "Solid delinquency trends are driving stable to lower loss expectations, with support from a resilient consumer and tighter underwriting in prior periods."Arfstrom sees loan balance growth accelerating from here on out.US consumer inflation reached its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices sharply higher. Earlier in the week, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, pausing a war that had spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz."We will look for confirmation that despite recent macro concerns, the medium-term revenue expectations are consistent," according to the RBC note.The brokerage lowered its price targets on American Express (AXP), Capital One Financial (COF) and SLM (SLM), to $415, $235 and $28, respectively. The price target on Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) moved to $90 from $83.RBC continues to recommend American Express for its premium consumer base and strong revenue growth expectations, while also favoring Ally Financial (ALLY). The brokerage highlighted stable to improving credit trends at Synchrony Financial (SYF) and Bread Financial."Our coverage universe has been impacted by market volatility, with a more challenging start to 2026," Arfstrom said. "That being said, we see our universe as well positioned to deliver improving growth and healthy credit. Assuming some stability in the broader macro sentiment, we expect solid earnings growth and decent stock price performance in 2026."Price: $79.11, Change: $-0.64, Percent Change: -0.81%

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