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Commodities

Energy Stocks Poised for Gains as Oil, Gas Outlook Improves, UBS Says

UBS maintained its bullish outlook for oil and natural gas, saying it expects 2027 prices to top what the current futures price would suggest even as volatility prompted it to stress-test energy stocks under multiple price scenarios, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.The analysis looked at oil prices ranging from $55-$65 per barrel for Brent crude and corresponding WTI prices of about $51-$61/bbl, along with natural gas prices between $2.75 and $4.25 per million British thermal units.UBS assumed companies would keep spending and production levels unchanged across all scenarios.UBS said current share prices for US oil and gas producers imply investors are expecting WTI crude prices in the low $60s/bbl and natural gas prices of about $3.50/MMBtu in 2027.In a scenario where Brent crude averages $75/bbl and natural gas averages $3.75/MMBtu, UBS believes the sector appears undervalued. Based on historical valuation levels, the bank estimates energy stocks could have over 20% upside.The bank also said energy company valuations are highly sensitive to changes in commodity prices. A $10/bbl move in oil prices and a $0.50 change in natural gas prices would have a significant impact on companies' cash flow and valuations.UBS added that if oil prices fall below $60/bbl and natural gas prices below $3/MMBtu many producers would likely reduce drilling activity and production.Despite higher oil prices since the recent conflict began, energy stocks have lagged the broader market. The S&P 500 Energy Index has gained 8% but has underperformed the broader S&P 500 by about 3 percentage points.Front-month WTI crude prices have risen 22%, while contracts for 2027 delivery are up 15%. Longer-dated natural gas prices, however, have fallen 10%.Among the companies UBS follows, SM Energy (SM) and Chord Energy (CHRD) have posted the strongest gains since the conflict began, while Liberty Energy (LBRT), Comstock Resources (CRK) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) have been the weakest performers.Smaller and mid-sized oil producers have generally outperformed their larger peers, UBS said.UBS maintained its preferred exploration and production stocks as Ovintiv (OVV), Devon Energy (DVN) and Antero Resources (AR), while naming National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) as its top pick among oilfield services companies.Price: $29.40, Change: $-0.90, Percent Change: -2.97%

$AR$CHRD$CRK$DVN$GPOR$LBRT$NESR$OVV$SM
Insider Trading

Chord Energy Insider Sold Shares Worth $1,404,200, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Michael H Lou, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer, and Chief Commercial Officer, on July 23, 2026, sold 10,000 shares in Chord Energy (CHRD) for $1,404,200. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Lou has control over a total of 72,699 common shares of the company, with 72,699 shares held directly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1486159/000149408326000014/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1784927423.xml

$CHRD
Commodities

Permian Drives US Land Rig Count Higher, Oilfield Services Stocks Outperform S&P 500 YTD, RBC Says

The US active land rig count rose by seven over the week to 572 as oil drilling activity strengthened, led by Permian Basin gains, RBC Capital Markets said in a Friday note.Baker Hughes (BKR) reported that US oil land rigs increased by seven to 437 during the latest week, while the gas land rig count remained at 126. Oil rigs increased by 15 over the month, while gas rigs added four, RBC said.The Permian Basin added three rigs over the week to 259, accounting for 59% of Lower 48 oil rigs and 45% of total US land rigs, according to RBC.Helmerich & Payne (HP) remained the most active driller in the Permian with 90 rigs, accounting for 33% of the total, followed by Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) with 34 rigs and Nabors Industries (NBR) with 27, RBC said.Among operators, Exxon Mobil (XOM) led the Permian with 33 rigs, followed by Devon Energy (DVN) with 22 and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with 20. Private operators accounted for 44% of active Permian rigs, up from 43% a year earlier, the note said.The Eagle Ford rig count held at 47. Helmerich & Payne remained the most active driller with 17 rigs, accounting for 33% of the total, followed by Nabors Industries with 12 rigs, or 24%, and Patterson-UTI Energy with seven rigs, or 14%, the note added.Among operators, ConocoPhillips (COP) led Eagle Ford with seven rigs, followed by EOG Resources (EOG) with six and Crescent Energy (CRGY) with four. Private operators increased their share of active rigs to 53% from 38% a year earlier.The Williston Basin also held steady at 27 rigs. Nabors Industries remained the leading driller with 16 rigs, followed by Patterson-UTI Energy with seven and Helmerich & Payne with five, according to RBC.Among operators, Chord Energy (CHRD) led Williston with five rigs, while Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) each operated three. Public operators accounted for 40% of active rigs, up from 34% a year earlier, RBC said.Oilfield services stocks under RBC coverage gained 1.1% over the week as West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 11.5%.The top performers over the week included Patterson-UTI Energy, which gained 6.7%, followed by Nov (NOV), up 3.3%, and Precision Drilling (PDS), which advanced 3.1%, RBC said.The weakest performers included Baker Hughes (BKR), which fell 2.8%, Liberty Energy (LBRT), down 2.7%, and Enerflex (EFXT), which lost 2.6%. RBC said its oilfield services coverage has gained 32.8% year to date, compared with a 10.8% increase in the S&P 500 Index.

$BKR$CHRD$COP$CRGY$CVX$DVN$EFXT$EOG$HP$LBRT$NBR$NOV$OXY$PDS$PTEN$XOM
Commodities

Energy Stocks Remain Undervalued Despite Long-Term Oil, Gas Outlook, UBS Says

UBS maintained a positive long-term outlook for crude oil and natural gas, saying energy stocks remain undervalued despite improving commodity fundamentals, the firm said in a note on Monday.UBS continues to expect stronger 2027 crude oil and natural gas prices than implied by current forward strips of $71 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and $3.35 per million British thermal units for Henry Hub.The firm assessed producers across scenarios ranging from $55-$65/bbl Brent, $51-$81/bbl WTI and $2.75-$4.25/MMBtu Henry Hub.Using an 8% free cash flow-to-enterprise value yield and a 5.5x enterprise value-to-EBITDA sector midpoint, UBS estimates exploration and production stocks currently reflect $60 WTI and $3.50 Henry Hub for 2027.Under a $75 Brent and $3.75 Henry Hub scenario, oil producers would generate an average 12.2% free cash flow-to-enterprise value yields and trade at 3.9x enterprise value-to-EBITDA.Gas producers, excluding Comstock Resources (CRK), would generate an average 11.5% free cash flow-to-enterprise value yield and trade at 4.6x enterprise value-to-EBITDA, UBS said.The same commodity deck would leave year-end 2027 net debt-to-EBITDA at about 0.2x to 0.3x if companies maintain current capital return programs.UBS said those valuations remain below the historical 4.5x to 6.5x range, implying more than 20% upside to the 5.5x midpoint.A $10/bbl move in crude oil and a $0.50/MMBtu change in Henry Hub prices would shift average free cash flow-to-enterprise value yields by 450 to 480 basis points.Enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiples could move 0.5x to 0.7x or more, particularly for gas producers, UBS said.UBS kept capital spending and production assumptions unchanged, although WTI prices below $60/bbl and Henry Hub prices below $3/MMBtu would likely prompt exploration and production companies to reduce both investment and output.Since the conflict began, the S&P 500 Energy Index has gained 1.3% but has trailed the broader S&P 500 by 8%. During the same period, front-month WTI has risen 16%, the 2027 WTI forward strip has gained 15%, while the 2027 Henry Hub strip has fallen 10.3%, UBS said.UBS said energy-sector valuations have weakened since the conflict began despite stronger long-term oil prices, with APA (APA) and Chord Energy (CHRD) leading gains, while Comstock Resources, Weatherford International (WFRD) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) have posted the weakest performance.UBS continues to favor Ovintiv (OVV), Devon Energy (DVN) and Antero Resources (AR) among exploration and production companies, while National Energy Services Reunited remains its top oilfield services pick.Price: $12.87, Change: $-0.37, Percent Change: -2.79%

$APA$AR$CHRD$CRK$DVN$GPOR$OVV$WFRD
Wire

Chord Energy's 4-Mile Laterals Seen Driving Higher Free Cash Flow, Buybacks, UBS Says

Chord Energy's (CHRD) growing use of 4-mile laterals is expected to drive efficiency gains that support higher free cash flow and buybacks as the company builds on its strong first quarter, UBS Securities said in a Q2 earnings preview.The firm said in a Thursday note that early performance from the longer laterals has been strong, with well costs tracking below budget. It also pointed to the company's first full 4-mile development pad, where full-pad development savings were realized.UBS said frac efficiency in Q1 was 24% higher than the 2025 average, reflecting improved operational efficiency.The investment firm expects capital spending to decline in H2 as the company drops a frac crew, with oil production remaining roughly flat in Q3 before declining in Q4. The brokerage lowered its financial forecasts for 2026 and 2027 on a weaker oil and gas price outlook.UBS reiterated its buy rating and lowered its price target to $153 from $179.Shares of Chord Energy were down 1.3% in Friday afternoon trading.Price: $116.99, Change: $-1.49, Percent Change: -1.26%

$CHRD
Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Chord Energy to $153 From $179, Maintains Buy Rating

Chord Energy (CHRD) has an average rating of buy and mean price target of $167.50, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)Price: $118.26, Change: $-0.23, Percent Change: -0.19%

$CHRD
Wire

Chord Energy Q1 Beat on Higher Oil Output, Lower Costs, RBC Says

Chord Energy (CHRD) reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results thanks to higher oil production and lower cash costs, RBC Capital said in a Friday note."CHRD is pulling forward activity through efficiencies and also reducing downtime that delivers strong oil volumes without impacting capital spending," the report said.The report said strong execution through adverse weatherand midstream constraints in Q1 did not slow the firm from delivering production that exceeded the high end of guidance.The note also pointed to higher oil production with unchanged capital budget for 2026."CHRD's balance sheet remains best-in-class to SMid peers andthe FCF should continue to drive down the leverage ratio," the note said. RBC kept its outperform rating and $180 price target.Price: $149.14, Change: $+0.75, Percent Change: +0.51%

$CHRD
Insider Trading

Chord Energy Insider Sold Shares Worth $1,099,710, According to a Recent SEC Filing

Douglas E Brooks, Director, on May 07, 2026, sold 8,000 shares in Chord Energy (CHRD) for $1,099,710. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Brooks has control over a total of 18,705 common shares of the company, with 18,705 shares held directly.SEC Filing:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1486159/000154814726000010/xslF345X05/wk-form4_1778535176.xml

$CHRD
Equities

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Chord Energy to $179 From $176, Maintains Buy Rating

Chord Energy (CHRD) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $168, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

$CHRD
Commodities

Chord Energy Beats Production Guidance, Raises Full-Year Oil Outlook

Chord Energy (CHRD) reported on Tuesday its Q1 2026 oil production volumes at 158,000 barrels per day, beating guidance at 152,500 b/d to 155,500 b/d.Natural gas liquids production came in at 49,000 b/d, matching the high end of company forecasts.Natural gas output also topped expectations, reaching 411.4 million cubic feet per day, above the guided range of 401 MMcf/d to 409 MMcf/d.Chord Energy said cash flow from operations and adjusted free cash flow both beat expectations during the quarter, supported by the stronger oil volumes and capital spending that remained in line with plans.Citing solid drilling, completions, and production performance, the company raised its full-year 2026 oil production outlook by 2,000 b/d to 161,000 b/d, while leaving its capital budget unchanged.The company also provided an update on its first full 4-mile development project, saying it successfully executed and brought online the five-well Toonie pad.Project performance is tracking in line with expectations, the company said.

$CHRD
Wire

Chord Energy Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise

Chord Energy (CHRD) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of $4.56 per diluted share, up from $4.04 a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $3.51.Revenue in the three months ended March 31 rose to $1.67 billion from $1.22 billion a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.21 billion.The company maintained its quarterly dividend at $1.30 a share, payable June 5 to stockholders of record May 20.Chord shares rose 2.2% in after-hours trading.

$CHRD
Oil & Energy

RBC Capital Markets Raises Commodity Price Outlook for 2026-28

RBC Capital Markets has raised its commodity price outlook due to the potentially long-lasting impact of the conflict between the US and Iran.The analysts said the tightening of supply and demand fundamentals has prompted them to raise their 2026-2028 equilibrium price for Brent/WTI by $10 to $80/$75 and Henry Hub natural gas by $0.25 to $4.00 per million cubic feet."This move reflects ongoing collateral damage in the Gulf region and a rising call on barrels globally from an energy security standpoint," RBC's research note said.It added that share buy-back activities were likely to slow given the recent sharp rise in equities valuations, up by more than 50% in the calendar year so far.In terms of trading ideas, RBC highlighted ConocoPhillips (COP) and EOG Resources (EOG) among large players, California Resources (CRC), Permian Resources (PR) and Chord Energy Group (CHRD) among small to medium and Expand Energy Corp (EXE) in gas.RBC said it had raised its EPS-to-cash flow per share estimates by an average 45% to reflect its revised commodity price expectations with oil players in this basket generally up closer to 55%.In keeping with this, price targets have been raised 27% on average, the note said.

$CHRD$COP$CRC$EOG$EXE$PR

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