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Commodities

Renewable Fuel Stocks Fall 5.8%, RNG Firms Lead Sector Lower, TPH Energy Says

Renewable fuel equities dropped 5.8% last week, trailing the S&P 500's 0.6% decline, even as crude oil prices moved higher, according to TPH Energy Research in a Monday note.Renewable natural gas stocks led the sector lower, with OPAL Fuels (OPAL) falling 12.6% and Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) declining 14.7%. TPH Energy also lowered its Q2 outlook for OPAL.Neste lost 2.6% after posting Q2 results that broadly matched market expectations, while Bunge (BG) gained 2% to outperform the renewable fuels group, according to the note.Renewable diesel margins moved in different directions as higher diesel prices offset weaker Renewable Identification Number values. Lower feedstock costs lifted renewable diesel tallow margins by 64 cents per gallon, while corn oil and used cooking oil margins fell 12 cents/gal and 6 cents/gal, respectively.RNG indicators declined by $1 per million British thermal units as weaker D3 RIN prices weighed on the market. Midwest ethanol margins also slipped 4 cents/gal because corn costs increased, the note said.Soybean crushing economics changed little over the week as stronger soybean oil prices balanced higher soybean costs, leaving overall crush margins largely unchanged, according to the note.Notable developments over the last week included US lawmakers introducing legislation to broaden the definition of renewable biomass to include woody materials.Separately, Louis Dreyfus doubled the capacity of its canola crushing plant in Yorkton, Saskatchewan, the note said.Paraguay lowered its biodiesel blending mandate back to 7% from 8% only four days after raising it, while a new 25% tariff took effect on Brazilian tallow exports.Attention now shifts to second-quarter earnings from Bunge and Darling Ingredients (DAR) this week, TPH added.Price: $2.23, Change: $+0.02, Percent Change: +0.68%

$BG$CLNE$DAR$OPAL
Wire

Archer-Daniels-Midland Benefits From Stronger Crush Margins, but Bunge Offers More Upside, Morgan Stanley Says

Archer-Daniels-Midland's (ADM) improving crush margins have raised earnings expectations, but Bunge Global (BG) remains the preferred long-term investment due to its Viterra synergies and stronger upside potential, Morgan Stanley said in a note Monday.Archer-Daniels-Midland is set to release its Q2 results on Aug. 4 and Bunge Global on July 29.The bank said it expects Archer-Daniels-Midland's Q2 earnings per share to come in about 3% above consensus, driven mainly by stronger crush margins, although the benefit is partly offset by a smaller reversal of the large mark-to-market loss recorded in Q1.For Bunge Global, the firm expects Q2 EPS to beat consensus by about 3% and has raised its 2026 EPS forecast to 4% above consensus and above the high end of the company's guidance. It also sees greater upside in 2027, with its forecast 9% above consensus."We continue to prefer Bunge's idiosyncratic opportunity over company-specific risks that could limit Archer-Daniels-Midland earnings upside," the firm said, adding that it doesn't expect Bunge's long-term investment case to play out linearly and sees near-term dislocations as a buying opportunity.Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Archer-Daniels-Midland to $60 from $58.Price: $85.25, Change: $-0.65, Percent Change: -0.76%

$ADM$BG
Commodities

US Soy Crush Margins Hold Near 5-Year High Despite Q3 Pullback, TPH Says

US soy crush margins eased to $117 per metric ton in Q3 2026 from $139/mt in Q2 but remained at a new five-year high for the period, TPH Energy said Thursday.TPH Energy said weaker soybean oil prices drove most of the decline over the quarter, cutting the indicator by $12/mt as lower crude oil and diesel prices pressured renewable diesel and biodiesel margins.The report said soybean oil generates about 50% of crush margin value despite representing only 18% of production volume. About 54% of US soybean oil is used in the biofuels market, making prices highly sensitive to fuel economics.Higher soybean feedstock costs reduced the indicator by another $6/mt from Q2. TPH cited the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which forecast 9% annual export growth and 5% higher domestic production.Soybean meal prices slipped 1%, lowering crush margins by $4/mt as broader protein markets weakened. Dried distillers grains and canola meal prices also declined, according to the report.Despite the quarterly decline, the indicator remains about $40/mt above the five-year average, reflecting margins that continue to exceed midcycle levels, TPH said.TPH expects strong Renewable Volume Obligations to support soybean oil demand after regulators raised total blending requirements by about 20% this year, with additional increases scheduled for next year.The firm said these market trends remain most relevant for renewable fuels exposure at Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global (BG), which continue to benefit from supportive long-term biofuel demand.Price: $83.13, Change: $+0.83, Percent Change: +1.00%

$ADM$BG
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Equities Advance as US-Iran Tensions Boost RD Margins, TPH Says

Renewable diesel margins climbed to five-year highs as renewed US-Iran conflict lifted fuel markets, although higher feedstock costs pressured ethanol and soy crush economics, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a Monday note.Renewable fuel stocks gained 3.4% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 1.2% rise, according to TPH.Green Plains (GPRE) advanced 8.9%, Darling Ingredients (DAR) gained 7.6%, and Bunge Global (BG) added 7.4%, while Aemetis (AMTX) fell 3.0% and Montauk Renewables (MNTK) declined 4.7%, the firm said.Higher diesel prices and stronger D4 Renewable Identification Number values lifted renewable diesel indicators by 34 cents to 75 cents per gallon, with renewable diesel margins based on corn oil and white grease reaching fresh five-year highs, TPH Energy said.A bullish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report pushed corn and soybean prices higher, reducing Midwest ethanol margins by 10 cents per gallon and soy crush margins by $5 per metric ton.Among renewable fuel companies, only Neste, Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Montauk Renewables, OPAL Fuels (OPAL) and Green Plains traded below their respective three-year forward enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization averages, TPH Energy said.Price: $17.60, Change: $+0.70, Percent Change: +4.17%

$AMTX$BG$CLNE$DAR$GPRE$MNTK$OPAL
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Investors Upbeat as Tighter US Biofuel Mandates Lift Outlook, TPH Says

Investors focused on renewable fuels are becoming more optimistic about the sector after the US Environmental Protection Agency's proposed 2026 biofuel blending requirements tightened the market for renewable fuel credits, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Friday.The improved sentiment has been driven largely by stronger prices for Renewable Identification Numbers, the tradable credits used to comply with the federal Renewable Fuel Standard.Tighter supplies of the credits have improved profit margins for renewable diesel producers, soybean processors, and ethanol makers, Blair said, adding that the D4 RIN credit prices may need to rise further to encourage additional imports of renewable fuels into the US. D4 RINs are credits primarily used for biomass-based diesel.Investors also question whether the Trump administration could grant a waiver to reduce or suspend Renewable Fuel Standard requirements, but Blair said any such action is unlikely.Among publicly traded companies, Blair said investors show the greatest interest in Darling Ingredients (DAR), Bunge Global (BG) and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), as well as ethanol producer Green Plains (GPRE).Price: $60.41, Change: $+0.22, Percent Change: +0.37%

$ADM$BG$DAR$GPRE
Commodities

Renewable Fuel Stocks Fall as RNG Weakness Persists, TPH Says

Renewable fuel stocks fell last week as weakness in renewable natural gas firms overshadowed improving profit margins across several low-carbon fuel markets, TPH Energy Research said in a Monday note.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that the renewable fuels sector declined 3% during the week, slightly worse than the S&P 500's 2.6% drop, with RNG-focused companies accounting for the four worst-performing stocks in the group.Agribusiness companies with exposure to biofuel feedstocks fared better. TPH said that Soybean crushers Bunge and Archer-Daniels-Midland were among the top performers, gaining 2.6% and 1.4%, respectively, as processing margins continued to improve.Margins for renewable diesel strengthened significantly, with low-carbon intensity renewable diesel indicators rising by $0.27 to $0.29 per gallon.The gains were driven by higher ultra-low sulfur diesel prices and stronger D4 Renewable Identification Number credits, while feedstock costs remained largely unchanged.RNG economics also improved despite the weakness in sector equities. Indicators for both landfill gas and dairy-based RNG increased by about $1 per million British thermal units, supported by stronger D3 RIN values.Elsewhere, Midwest ethanol margins rose $0.3 per gallon as corn prices eased, while soybean crushing margins increased by about $10 per metric ton on lower soybean costs.TPH said the renewable fuels sector is currently trading at a forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 8.9 times, broadly in line with its three-year average valuation. Meanwhile, policy and regulatory developments continued to dominate investor attention.Renewable natural gas industry groups launched legal challenges against the US Environmental Protection Agency's decision to reduce the 2025 cellulosic biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation and exclude electric vehicle charging credits from the Renewable Fuel Standard program.Simultaneously, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers filed its own lawsuit challenging the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026/27.Germany's revised renewable fuel legislation came into effect, introducing new compliance requirements for fuel suppliers and renewable energy producers.On the corporate front, renewable fuels producer Clean Energy Fuels began commercial production of RNG at its Millenkamp dairy project in Idaho, adding to the company's portfolio of renewable gas assets that supply the transportation sector.Though improving margins supported fundamentals, TPH analysts said investors remained cautious amid ongoing policy uncertainty and legal disputes surrounding US renewable fuel mandates.Price: $126.44, Change: $-0.02, Percent Change: -0.02%

$ADM$BG
Commodities

D4 RIN Production Rises in April but Still Misses 2026 Target Pace, TPH Energy Says

D4 renewable fuel credit production rose in April, though output still trails the pace needed to meet 2026 renewable fuel targets, TPH Energy said Friday.April D4 RIN generation rose to 422 million from 399 million in March and 363 million a year earlier, while domestic supply made up 100% of sourcing for the second straight month, TPH Energy said.In April, renewable diesel accounted for 64% of the fuel mix, down from 65% in March, according to TPH Energy.Biodiesel accounted for 31% of the April mix, up from 29% in March, while sustainable aviation fuel represented 5%, down from 6% a month earlier.Renewable diesel utilization climbed to 72% in April from 69% in March, while biodiesel utilization increased to 79% from 72% over the same period, according to TPH Energy.TPH Energy estimates combined D4-D5-D6 RIN generation will reach 21.63 billion in 2026 after year-to-date growth of only 6%, well below the Renewable Volume Obligation target of 25.45 billion.Even if all US renewable diesel and biodiesel capacity operates at full rates for the rest of 2026, total D4-D5-D6 generation would still reach only 24.20 billion, missing the target by 5%, TPH Energy said.Overall, TPH Energy said the trends remain positive for US renewable diesel producers such as Darling Ingredients (DAR), as well as for feedstock suppliers Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global (BG).D3 RIN generation rose to 118 million in March from 109 million in February and 99 million a year earlier, while year-to-date growth of 27% puts projected 2026 generation at 1.39 billion versus the 1.36 billion mandate, the report said.Price: $58.01, Change: $+0.15, Percent Change: +0.26%

$ADM$BG$DAR
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Adds Shares Of Bunge Global To The Total Return Portfolio

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We add shares of Bunge Global (BG) to the Total Return portfolio, replacing shares of Target Corporation (TGT 122 ***). Our constructive outlook reflects several factors that position BG favorably for the next year. First, we see the Viterra deal as fundamentally transformative, creating a global agribusiness platform with unmatched scale that is already delivering synergies ahead of plan. Second, we believe Bunge is well-positioned to capitalize on structural tailwinds in biofuels, with the EPA's Renewable Volume Obligation decision providing policy clarity that should sustain strong demand for vegetable oils through 2026 and beyond. Third, the company's expanded global footprint provides operational flexibility to navigate regional supply/demand imbalances and geopolitical disruptions more effectively than peers. Fourth, we see current valuations as attractive, as shares trade at about 15x forward P/E vs. 18x for ADM, despite materially improved earnings power post-Viterra.

$BG
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion On Shares Of Bunge Global Sa

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lift our 12-month target to $142 from $136, reflecting 15x our FY 26 EPS of $9.51 (up from $8.48; FY 27 EPS raised to $10.20 from $9.62). This multiple exceeds the long-term mean of 12x but aligns more closely with the peer average, which we believe is justified as BG emerges as a more diversified global player following the Viterra acquisition. Expectations were elevated heading into this release, particularly after recent favorable U.S. biofuel policy rules. This policy momentum is expanding globally, with Brazil, Indonesia, and Europe moving toward greater biofuel utilization, partly due to elevated crude oil prices stemming from Middle East tensions. We view the company's updated EPS outlook ($9.00 to $9.50 from $7.50 to $8.00) favorably and see further upside potential if forward crush margins improve in 2H 26 (current curves reflect heightened uncertainty in the back half of the year).

$BG
Research

Research Alert: Bg: Strong Q1 Earnings Beat And Guidance Raise; Earnings Trend To Improve

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:BG delivered solid Q1 results with adjusted EPS of $1.83 (+1% Y/Y) beating the $0.87 consensus, while adjusted EBIT of $561M (+55% Y/Y) exceeded the $367M consensus. Strong performance across segments drove the beat, with Soy Processing & Refining adjusted EBIT up 56% to $377M and Softseed Processing surging 138% to $195M. The results demonstrate early benefits from the transformational Viterra acquisition, with integration proceeding ahead of expectations and synergies materializing across value chains. Management significantly raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00-$9.50 (consensus is $8.41) from $7.50-$8.00, a substantial $1.25 midpoint increase reflecting strong execution and improving synergy visibility. We believe Viterra integration momentum should continue supporting earnings growth, while favorable EPA renewable volume obligations requiring over 60% higher biofuel production vs. 2025 levels should benefit crush margins and support the company's positive outlook and earnings trajectory.

$BG
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Lean Lower Premarket Wednesday

Consumer stocks were leaning lower premarket Wednesday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) declining by 0.4%.Bunge Global (BG) shares were up more than 2% after the company posted higher Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales, and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook.Yum China (YUMC) stock was up more than 3% after the company reported higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.Brinker International (EAT) shares were up more than 9% after the company reported higher fiscal Q3 non-GAAP net income and revenue.

$BG$EAT$XLP$XLY$YUMC
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks were leaning lower premarket Wednesday, with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) down 0.2% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) declining by 0.5%.Bunge Global (BG) shares were up more than 1% after the company posted higher Q1 adjusted earnings and net sales, and raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook.

$BG
Wire

Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge Global to Deliver 'Modest' Beats in Q1, Morgan Stanley Says

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global's (BG) Q1 financial results are both expected to "modestly" beat analyst estimates, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Wednesday note to clients.Archer-Daniels-Midland is scheduled to report Q1 results on May 5, while Bunge Global is planned for April 29.Morgan Stanley said it prefers Bunge Global over Archer-Daniels-Midland, noting that synergy optionality positions Bunge Global better to meet or exceed investor expectations, while idiosyncratic risk at Archer-Daniels-Midland likely limits its upside potential.Morgan Stanley analysts raised their Q1 adjusted earnings per share estimate for Archer-Daniels-Midland to $0.69 from $0.68. Analysts polled by FactSet are looking for $0.65.For Bunge Global, Morgan Stanley increased its Q1 adjusted earnings per share estimate to $0.92 from $0.85. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $0.88.Analysts have an underweight rating on Archer-Daniels-Midland, but increased its price target to $54 from $50. On Bunge Global, they have an overweight rating and a $140 price target.Price: $69.69, Change: $-0.14, Percent Change: -0.20%

$ADM$BG
Wire

Chevron's Renewable-Fuels Upside Overlooked Ahead of 2026 Margin Rebound, UBS Says

Chevron's (CVX) capacity expansion at its Geismar facility in Louisiana is Underappreciated due to weak renewable diesel and biodiesel margins in 2025, UBS Securities said Monday in a report.The Environmental Protection Agency's revised Renewable Volume Obligations mandate a sharp increase in biomass-based diesel blending, which UBS said should drive a "very strong inflection" in earnings cash flow from 2026 to 2028. Chevron is expected to generate $440 million in incremental EBITDA over that period, the report said.Chevron's joint venture with Bunge Global (BG) expanded soybean-processing capacity and added switch capability, giving the company direct exposure to soy and softseed crush margins, UBS said.Diesel and crush margins are likely to be materially higher in 2026, contributing an incremental $1 billion to Chevron's cash flows, the report said.UBS reiterated its buy rating on Chevron stock with a price target of $218.Chevron shares fell 2.6% in Tuesday trading, and Bunge rose 0.2%.Price: $186.72, Change: $-5.06, Percent Change: -2.64%

$BG$CVX

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