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Alcoa Pullback On Revised Second-Quarter Guidance 'Overdone,' Morgan Stanley Says
US Markets

Alcoa Pullback On Revised Second-Quarter Guidance 'Overdone,' Morgan Stanley Says

Alcoa's (AA) stock pullback after the company flagged near-term headwinds was "overdone" relative to the limited impact on earnings, Morgan Stanley said in a note e-mailed Thursday.Alcoa expects an approximately $60 million sequential headwind to its alumina segment's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in the fiscal second quarter, it said in an investor presentation on Wednesday.The impact is mainly driven by higher production costs at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia, elevated energy expenses linked to the Middle East conflict and lower price and volume impacts from bauxite offtake agreements, the company said.The stock closed Wednesday trading down about 9.5%, but was up 2.5% in the most recent premarket activity.Morgan Stanley believes the guidance impacts its full-year estimates for the company by just about 2%, and Alcoa continues to benefit from a favorable aluminum price environment."Solid cash flow generation will lead to a rapid decline in Alcoa's expanded net debt -- even without any site sales to data centers -- leaving room for potential increase to shareholder returns via higher base dividends or buybacks," Morgan Stanley said.The brokerage maintained its Overweight rating on the stock but lowered its price target to $79 from $80.Morgan Stanley now expects fiscal second-quarter EBITDA of $947 million for the company, down about 3% from its previous outlook. It also lowered its adjusted EPS estimate to $2.38 from $2.46. Analysts polled by FactSet currently expect EBITDA of $985 million and EPS of $2.26 for the quarter.For fiscal 2026, the brokerage expects EBITDA of $3.78 billion for the company and revenue of $15.25 billion, both down about 2% from its previous estimates.

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Wire

Alcoa Shares Rise After UBS Upgrade

Alcoa (AA) shares rose nearly 9% in Friday trading after UBS upgraded the aluminum producer to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $80 from $75.Trading volume stood at over 4.5 million shares compared with a daily average of about 5.5 million shares.Price: $72.07, Change: $+5.80, Percent Change: +8.74%

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Research

Wells Fargo Upgrades Alcoa to Overweight From Equalweight, Adjusts Price Target to $70 From $67

Alcoa (AA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $77.18, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Recommendation On Shares Of Alcoa Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We increase our 12-month target by $7 to $75, assuming an EV/EBITDA of 6.5x our 2027 EBITDA estimate, a discount to AA's three-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 6.7x, warranted by the Section 232 tariffs, a headwind for AA's cost basis. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate by $2.97 to $7.78 and our 2027 EPS estimate by $0.57 to $6.12. AA benefits from a favorable aluminum supply-demand backdrop stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has taken approximately 2.5 million metric tons of annual smelting capacity offline and pushed LME aluminum prices above $3,600/ton. AA's strategic advantages include minimal spot electricity exposure (less than 1%) and growing demand for value-added products from customers seeking to replace Middle East supply. However, the alumina segment faces margin pressure from weak API pricing and elevated energy costs. With $1.4 billion in cash and debt reduction underway, AA is well positioned to benefit from sustained tight aluminum markets while navigating alumina headwinds.

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Wire

Market Chatter: Alcoa Nears Sale of New York Smelter Site to Bitcoin Miner NYDIG

Alcoa (AA) is in advanced discussions to sell its former Massena East smelter site in upstate New York to Bitcoin mining firm NYDIG as part of its plan to dispose of unused assets, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing an interview with chief executive officer Bill Oplinger.The deal is expected to close around mid-year, Oplinger said, according to the report. The site was closed in 2014 by Alcoa as the business ceased to be competitive and it has access to hydropower from the New York Power Authority, the report added.Alcoa and NYDIG didn't immediately reply to' request for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $65.38, Change: $-5.03, Percent Change: -7.14%

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Wire

Top Midday Stories: Hormuz Strait Temporarily Open to Commercial Ships; Netflix Reports Strong Q1 Earnings, But Guidance Disappoints

All three major US stock indexes were up sharply in late-morning trading Friday, as Iran Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on X that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial ships for the remaining period of the ceasefire between the US and Iran.In company news, Netflix (NFLX) reported Q1 earnings late Thursday of $1.23 per diluted share, up from $0.66 a year earlier and above the FactSet consensus analyst estimate of $0.76. First-quarter revenue was $12.25 billion, up from $10.54 billion a year ago and above the FactSet consensus of $12.18 billion. For Q2, the company said it expects EPS of $0.78 on revenue of $12.57 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $0.84 and $12.64 billion, respectively. The company also said Chairman and Co-founder Reed Hastings said he will not stand for re-election to the board when his term expires in June. Netflix shares were down 9.4% around midday.Intel's (INTC) stock was up in morning trading Friday, touching $6.97 earlier, its highest level since August 2000. Intel shares were up 2.6%.Alcoa (AA) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Thursday of $1.40 per share, down from $2.15 a year earlier and below the FactSet consensus of $1.53. First-quarter revenue was $3.19 billion, down from $3.37 billion a year ago and below the FactSet consensus of $3.28 billion. Alcoa shares were down 7.5%.Autoliv (ALV) reported Q1 adjusted earnings Friday of $2.05 per diluted share, down from $2.15 a year earlier but above the FactSet consensus of $1.83. First-quarter revenue was $2.75 billion, up from $2.58 billion a year ago and above the FactSet consensus of $2.62 billion. For full-year 2026, the company said it expects adjusted operating margin of about 10.5% to 11% and operating cash flow of around $1.2 billion. Autoliv shares were up 9.9%.Truist Financial (TFC) reported Q1 earnings Friday of $1.09 per diluted share, up from $0.87 a year earlier and above the FactSet consensus of $1.00. First-quarter revenue was $5.15 billion, up from $4.90 billion a year ago but below the FactSet consensus of $5.16 billion. Truist shares were up 1.8%.Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) reported Q1 earnings Friday of $0.15 per diluted share, down from $0.71 a year earlier and compared to the FactSet consensus of a loss of $0.10. First-quarter revenue was $2.83 billion, up from $2.14 billion a year ago but below the FactSet consensus of $2.85 billion. For full-year 2026, Fifth Third said it expects net interest income of $8.7 billion to $8.8 billion and noninterest income of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion. For Q2, the company said it expects net interest income of $2.20 billion to $2.25 billion and noninterest income of $1.00 billion to $1.06 billion. Fifth Third shares were up 1.8%.Price: $97.13, Change: $-10.66, Percent Change: -9.89%

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Research

Research Alert: Alcoa's Q1 Misses Consensus, Pricing Strength Offsets Volume Disruptions

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:AA reported Q1 2026 adj. EPS of $1.40 vs. $2.15 Y/Y, missing consensus by $0.15, while revenue of $3.19B declined 5.2% Y/Y (-7% Q/Q) and missed estimates by 2.3%. Adj. EBITDA increased 13% sequentially to $595M despite volume headwinds from the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle, as realized aluminum prices improved 12% Q/Q to $4,209 per metric ton. We view results as constructive despite external disruptions, with AA demonstrating strong operational leverage to aluminum pricing and successful San Ciprian smelter restart completion in April. Management maintained full-year 2026 production guidance of 9.7M-9.9M metric tons for alumina and 2.4M-2.6M metric tons for aluminum. For Q2, we expect aluminum segment EBITDA to improve ~$55M from inventory repositioning and San Ciprian benefits, though partially offset by ~$15M alumina headwinds and $35M sequential increase in Section 232 tariff costs. AA's strong $1.4B cash position and $219M debt reduction show disciplined allocation.

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