^YSX

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ASEAN Manufacturing Scene Strong in May: PMI Report

Despite Persian Gulf troubles, ASEAN manufacturers logged stronger new orders and boosted production in May, reported S&P Global on Tuesday.The ASEAN manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) posted at 51.5 in May, up from 50.7 in April, and striking above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, reported S&P Global, citing its monthly surveys.The ASEAN PMI logged in positive territory for the 11th-straight month, as stronger domestic demand offset sluggish export orders.The S&P Global ASEAN PMI is a composite of national reports from 2,100 manufacturers in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.After somewhat lagging in the three previous months, ASEAN manufacturers reported a "solid rise in new orders" in May, although "export sales declined for a third consecutive month," explained S&P Global.Despite improving orders and rising production, ASEAN factory managers kept a tight rein on payrolls in May. Factory sector employers "remained cautious about expanding employment, with May showing a slight decline in jobs," noted S&P Global.Manufacturers also faced rising costs in May, and responded by raising charges on customers. Both "cost burdens and charges rose at substantial and historically marked rates," said S&P Global.With orders improving, ASEAN factory managers in May were more confident in their year-ahead outlooks. Business "confidence regarding output over the coming 12 months improved further to a four-month high, suggesting that firms anticipate continued production growth," said S&P Global.But global events still tempered views. "However, ongoing trade disruptions and inflationary pressures, driven by the current war, will continue to act as headwinds to growth," advised S&P Global.ASEAN survey responses were collected by S&P Global from May 12 through May 20.

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International41d ago

ASEAN Manufacturing Growth Slows to Nine-Month Low in April, S&P Global Says

ASEAN's manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in April, with growth easing to a nine-month low as price pressures intensified, according to data released by S&P Global on Tuesday.The S&P Global ASEAN Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.7 in April from 51.8 in March, marking the weakest reading since July but extending the current expansion streak to nine months.New order growth slowed to an eight-month low, while production growth eased further and moved close to stagnation. New export orders declined for a second straight month at the fastest pace since last July.Firms cut employment for the first time in eight months, while purchasing activity increased.On the price front, input cost inflation surged to its highest level since March 2022, while output prices rose at the fastest pace in 49 months, reflecting stronger cost pass-through by firms.Despite challenges and weak historical levels, business confidence stayed positive in April, with manufacturers expecting production to grow over the next year, the report said.

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International46d ago

ADB Cuts Economic Growth Projections for Developing Asia Amid Middle East Crisis

The Asian Development Bank sharply downgraded its economic growth forecasts for developing Asia and the Pacific while raising inflation projections, citing prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict that are driving up energy prices and tightening financial conditions.The bank now expects regional growth of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, down from its earlier forecast of 5.1% for both years. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to accelerate to 5.2% this year before slowing to 4.1% in 2027, according to the latest ADB report.ADB said the revisions reflect sustained pressure on oil and gas prices, with crude expected to average about $96 per barrel in 2026, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels, weighing on fuel-importing economies.Under a more severe scenario, growth could ease further to 4.2% this year and 4% next year, while inflation may spike to 7.4% in 2026, the bank added, urging targeted fiscal support and measured monetary responses.

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Asia61d ago

IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

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Asia62d ago

Sovereign Rating Risks Grow for Southeast Asia Amid Middle East Conflict, S&P Says

Southeast Asia's sovereign ratings face risks from the Middle East conflict, with persistent energy disruption to weigh on their fiscal and external metrics, S&P Global Ratings said in a Tuesday release.Economies reliant on imported energy could see strains in their robust growth outlook under severe long-term effects of the war, limiting economic support for ratings in South and Southeast Asia, credit analyst Rain Yin said.Damage to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East will prolong the normalization of oil and gas production levels even with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, S&P said.Southeast Asian sovereigns with weaker rating buffers could see their credit quality drop under persistent energy market disruption, with government subsidies for consumers and businesses possibly increasing, Yin said.The depth of the damage to sovereigns' fiscal positions will depend on the ability of governments to reduce expenses or delay spending plans, S&P said.

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International62d ago

Middle East Escalation Could Cost Asia Up to $299 Billion, UNDP Warns

The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could inflict economic losses of up to $299 billion across Asia and the Pacific, as higher fuel, freight and input costs ripple through regional economies, UNDP's latest assessment report release Tuesday showed.The report said the shock is weakening household purchasing power, increasing food insecurity, straining public budgets and undermining livelihoods, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported energy and food, as well as those exposed to Gulf trade routes, labor markets and remittance flows.It estimated that under a 28-day disruption scenario, regional output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP, with South Asia facing the most pronounced impact.Around 8.8 million people across 14 countries could fall into poverty, including more than 5 million in Iran, where the poverty rate may rise from 36% to 41.5%, according to the simulations.The report, prepared as of April 9, draws on inputs from 22 UNDP country offices covering 36 countries, alongside modelling and external data. It noted that outcomes will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the conflict, with risks rising further if disruptions persist.

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