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International

IMF Sees Global Economy Holding Up Amid Middle East Conflict

The global economy has remained resilient despite the Middle East conflict, supported by strong growth in the U.S. and China, though energy importers remain vulnerable, according to a Monday blog by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.Oil prices remain about 30% above pre-war levels, contributing to higher inflation in many economies.However, inflation expectations have generally remained anchored, while financial markets have held up and global financial conditions remain accommodative, Georgieva said.She said investment in artificial intelligence and data centers continues to support growth, particularly in the U.S. and parts of Asia, helping offset the impact of higher energy costs.The IMF warned that countries heavily reliant on energy imports, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, face mounting pressure from higher fuel, food, and financing costs.The fund said policymakers should maintain price stability and fiscal discipline while remaining prepared to respond to prolonged disruptions.

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International

World Bank Marginally Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast for South Asia to 6.3%

The World Bank marginally raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for South Asia due to better than expected export growth and domestic demand in several economies.In its latest Global Economic Prospects released Thursday, the international organization revised its growth estimate for the region to 6.3% from 6.2% in January.Despite the revision, the development lender noted that growth in 2026 would soften from the 7.1% estimated for 2025 as markets reel from disruptions to commodities and international trade amid the Middle East conflict.Once the conflict subsides, the lender estimates that growth in the region would accelerate to an average rate of 7% per year in 2027-28.

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International

ADB Cuts Economic Growth Projections for Developing Asia Amid Middle East Crisis

The Asian Development Bank sharply downgraded its economic growth forecasts for developing Asia and the Pacific while raising inflation projections, citing prolonged disruptions from the Middle East conflict that are driving up energy prices and tightening financial conditions.The bank now expects regional growth of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, down from its earlier forecast of 5.1% for both years. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to accelerate to 5.2% this year before slowing to 4.1% in 2027, according to the latest ADB report.ADB said the revisions reflect sustained pressure on oil and gas prices, with crude expected to average about $96 per barrel in 2026, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels, weighing on fuel-importing economies.Under a more severe scenario, growth could ease further to 4.2% this year and 4% next year, while inflation may spike to 7.4% in 2026, the bank added, urging targeted fiscal support and measured monetary responses.

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Asia

Emerging Asia Faces Heightened Food Cost Pressure Amid Iran Conflict, Fitch Says

Increasing food cost pressure could burden Asia's emerging markets as the lingering US-Iran war further strains fertilizer supply amid the upcoming planting season, Fitch Ratings said in a recent release.Limited fertilizer availability and price pressure would increase production costs, dissuade application rates, and dampen crop yield, impacting margins and food prices for this year, Fitch said.The Gulf region supplies a large portion of the world's fertilizer especially with natural gas' key role as feedstock, Fitch said.The rating agency also expects major Asian exporters such as China to further limit fertilizer shipments, at least until mid-year.Nitrogen-based urea prices posted a 50% rise to about $700 per tonne from about $465 pre-war, Fitch said.A resulting reduction in fertilizer use or planting could worsen the risk of weaker crop yields and increased food prices in the latter part of the year, the rating agency said.Given the reliance on domestic production by the region's emerging nations, less fertilizer supply will have a significant impact under constrained planting or yields, Fitch said.For those that are more dependent on imported food, such as the Maldives, Mongolia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, weaker domestic harvests along with heightened global food prices and export restrictions would create more adverse situations, Fitch said.Continued conflict after mid-2026 and elevated oil prices could place an additional 9.1 million people in Asia into acute food insecurity, or a 24% increase from before the war, Fitch cited the World Food Programme as saying.

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Asia

IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

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International

Middle East Escalation Could Cost Asia Up to $299 Billion, UNDP Warns

The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could inflict economic losses of up to $299 billion across Asia and the Pacific, as higher fuel, freight and input costs ripple through regional economies, UNDP's latest assessment report release Tuesday showed.The report said the shock is weakening household purchasing power, increasing food insecurity, straining public budgets and undermining livelihoods, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported energy and food, as well as those exposed to Gulf trade routes, labor markets and remittance flows.It estimated that under a 28-day disruption scenario, regional output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP, with South Asia facing the most pronounced impact.Around 8.8 million people across 14 countries could fall into poverty, including more than 5 million in Iran, where the poverty rate may rise from 36% to 41.5%, according to the simulations.The report, prepared as of April 9, draws on inputs from 22 UNDP country offices covering 36 countries, alongside modelling and external data. It noted that outcomes will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the conflict, with risks rising further if disruptions persist.

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