FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Workday's Core Growth Continues to Slow as AI Monetization Takes Time, Morgan Stanley Says

By

Workday (WDAY) faces slowing core growth, while artificial intelligence monetization remains in pilot phase and too early to drive meaningful near-term revenue growth, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday.

The investment firm said there is limited visibility into trends in Workday's Human Capital Management, or HCM, and Financial Management, or FINS, segments. HCM growth has slowed to 13% in fiscal 2026, and is expected to decelerate further to 9% in fiscal 2028, Morgan Stanley said.

While FINS remains stronger with around 20% growth, overall subscription revenue is projected to grow at a 12% to 13% compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2028, suggesting Workday's overall market share will remain largely unchanged, with HCM losing share as FINS gains, according to the note.

Management noted that fiscal Q1 results benefited from the previous quarter's deal slippage, making the sustainability of new annual contract value growth through H2 fiscal 2027 a key area to watch, the firm said.

"Until adoption moves beyond pilots and targeted deployments, it will be difficult for us and investors to underwrite AI as a near-term growth accelerator," the firm added.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Workday to underweight from equal-weight, and cut its price target to $145 from $185.

Shares of Workday were down more than 2% in Tuesday trading.

Price: $144.11, Change: $-3.12, Percent Change: -2.12%

Related Articles

Wire

Calix Fiscal Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise; Shares Fall After Hours

Calix (CALX) reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings late Monday of $0.47 per diluted share, up from $0.33 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $0.40.Revenue in the three months ended June 27 rose to $293.3 million from $241.9 million a year earlier.Analysts expected $290 million.The company expects Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.37 to $0.45 on revenue of $301 million to $307 million.Analysts expect EPS of $0.46 on revenue of $301.7 million.Calix shares fell 13% in after-hours trading

$CALX
Wire

Crown Holdings Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise; Shares Gain After Hours

Crown Holdings (CCK) reported Q2 adjusted earnings late Monday of $2.49 per diluted share, up from $2.15 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $2.16.Revenue in the three months ended June 30 rose to $3.67 billion from $3.15 billion a year earlier.Analysts expected $3.37 billion.The company projects Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.20 to $2.30. Analysts expect $2.27.Crown boosted full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8.30 to $8.50 from $7.90 to $8.30.Analysts expect $8.12.Crown shares rose 5.6% in after-hours trading.

$CCK
Alphabet Poised for Another Strong, AI-Driven Quarter, Tigress Says
Wire

Alphabet Poised for Another Strong, AI-Driven Quarter, Tigress Says

Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) is expected to report another strong quarter, driven by artificial intelligence, Tigress Financial Partners said Monday in a client note.The search engine Google's parent is scheduled to release second-quarter financials on Wednesday, after the market closes.The consensus is for 21% revenue growth year over year and earnings per share of $2.90 on a GAAP basis, according to Tigress.A more than 60% jump in Google cloud and mid-teens expansion in search, YouTube and subscriptions are likely to drive revenue at Alphabet, according to Ivan Feinseth, chief market strategist at Tigress. The company will also benefit from early monetization from Gemini, tensor processing units and full-stack AI offerings."The (second quarter) is expected to confirm that AI is driving faster adoption and monetization across infrastructure, core ads and consumer products rather than being confined to a single business line," Feinseth wrote.Alphabet logged a 22% year-over-year revenue increase in the first quarter to $109.9 billion, with the Google cloud segment's sales surging 63% to $20.03 billion. Google services revenue increased 16% to $89.64 billion.The company revised this year's capital expenditure forecast to between $180 billion and $190 billion in April, up from its previous estimate of $175 billion to $185 billion.Last week, BofA Securities said Alphabet is likely to deliver strong second-quarter results amid strength in its cloud business. Given higher prices of memory and other components, Alphabet could increase its 2026 capital spending outlook range by 5% to $190 billion to $200 billion, according to BofA.While Wall Street is closely watching the massive AI spending cycle and its impact on cash flows, Feinseth said "current expectations for operating income growth outpacing revenue and margin expansion reflect a growing view that this investment is value-accretive, as cloud profitability improves and efficiency gains offset near-term free cash flow pressure."Analyst sentiment around Alphabet remains "very bullish," with an average 12-month target tracking in the high $420 range, Feinseth said.Price: $352.39, Change: $+5.62, Percent Change: +1.62%

$GOOG$GOOGL