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Western Haynesville Wells Underperform as Development Costs Rise, TPH Says

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Western Haynesville gas wells continue to underperform modeled production expectations, raising questions about the economics of developing the large US shale asset, TPH Energy analyst Jake Roberts said in a note on Wednesday.

Roberts said it is tracking 50 wells in the Western Haynesville, including 38 operated by Comstock Resources (CRK), 10 by Adamas Oil & Gas and two by Mitsui. Productivity per foot has declined since the first wells were drilled in 2022 and 2023, with the deterioration evident when comparing the 2024 through 2026 vintages.

The number of wells exceeding a 3.5 billion cubic feet per 1,000-foot type curve has also fallen in recent years. TPH said one of two wells in the 2022 vintage exceeded that level, compared with four of eight in 2023 and three of nine in 2024. None of the 16 wells in the 2025 vintage exceeded the benchmark, while only one of 15 wells in the 2026 vintage did so.

TPH currently models a 2.5 Bcf per 1,000-foot type curve for asset development, while warning that most wells drilled in 2025 and 2026 could ultimately perform below that level. Roberts said the company would need to monitor the results as additional production data becomes available.

However, despite the weaker well results, Roberts expects the Western Haynesville to play a significant role in US gas supply, estimating production could reach about 2.6 Bcf per day by Q4 2030. TPH also expects the basin to provide marginal gas supply to the Gulf Coast, supporting its long-term Henry Hub price assumption of about $4.50 per million British thermal units.

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