Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US decreased, while continuing claims moved higher, government data showed Thursday.
For the week through May 16, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims fell by 3,000 to 209,000, the Department of Labor said. The consensus was for a 210,000 reading in a Bloomberg poll. The previous week's reading was revised upward by 1,000. The four-week moving average totaled 202,500, down by 1,500 from the prior week's average that was revised up by 250. Unadjusted claims decreased by 5,826 to 185,625, the DOL said.
"Initial claims have remained in a narrow band for roughly three month and have recently trended below their prior-year levels -- a surprising stretch of stability given the headwinds from the Iran conflict, elevated inflation, and lingering tariff uncertainty," Oxford Economics Senior US Economist Matthew Martin said in remarks e-mailed to.
Although the labor market isn't "booming," employers continue to be reluctant to lower headcount, Martin said.
Seasonally adjusted continuing claims for the week ended May 9 reached 1.78 million, compared with Wall Street's expectations of 1.79 million. Continuing claims climbed by 6,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 6,000, according to the DOL. The four-week moving average fell by 6,500 to about 1.77 million from the prior week's downwardly revised figure.
On Wednesday, minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting showed that policymakers flagged the possibility of higher interest rates, if the Middle East conflict drags on and keeps inflation above their 2% target.
"The hawkish tone from the April (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes and views suggesting that clear evidence of disinflation resuming is needed for the Fed to cut rates increase our subjective odds that the Fed is on hold until next year, but a hike still seems unlikely," Martin said Thursday.
The US/Israel war with Iran started at the end of February, sending energy prices surging amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. A fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran continues to hold, though the two sides are yet to agree on a framework for a peace deal.
