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Weak Domestic Demand Drags China's August Economic Data; Industrial Output Beats Estimates

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Weak Domestic Demand Drags China's August Economic Data; Industrial Output Beats Estimates

Weak domestic demand continues to weigh on China's economy in August, with retail sales registering sluggish growth and fixed-asset investment declining further.

Retail sales edged up 0.4% year over year to 3.982 trillion yuan, softer than the 0.6% rise in the previous month and missing the consensus forecast of 0.7% tracked by Investing.com.

The latest retail sales data "highlights weak consumption," according to ING Greater China Chief Economist Lynn Song. Despite China being the largest producer and consumer of electric cars, auto sales dragged growth with an 18.5% fall to 327.9 billion yuan during the month.

Fixed asset investment contracted for the sixth straight month to 7.2% year over year, slowing from the 6.7% contraction recorded in July and missing the consensus forecast of a 7% contraction. The rise in high-tech fixed-asset investment failed to stop the plunge seen in the infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors.

Property investments fell 19.9% year over year in the January-August period, faster than the 19.2% slide in the seven months through July.

Industrial production grew 5.2% year over year in August, outpacing the 4.5% expansion in July and the consensus forecast of 4.8%. ING's Song said "resilient external demand and China's own tech and industrial upgrading continue to drive growth" in industrial activity.

Lithium-ion battery production surged 57.2%, while high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing jumped 16.7% and 12.1%, respectively.

By sector, manufacturing output grew 6.1%, mining declined 1.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas, and water climbed 4.9%.

China's surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August from 5.2% the previous month, wrong-footing analysts polled by Investing.com, who had expected the rate to remain unchanged at 5.2%.

What else is happening in US Markets?

New Zealand Home Sales Slow, Prices Fall in August
US Markets

New Zealand Home Sales Slow, Prices Fall in August

New Zealand's house prices and sales fell in August, with houses taking longer to sell, making it the sixth-lowest August in 35 years of records, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.The national median sale price fell 1.3% year over year in August to NZ$750,000 as the sales count declined 13% to 5,430, while inventory levels jumped 9.7% to 32,908 units, with Auckland and Wellington now having seen 31 straight months of year-on-year inventory growth.Also, new listings fell 5.1% to 8,326, and properties took 51 days to sell, up 3 days from a year ago.Despite the broad decline, five out of 16 regions recorded positive year-on-year median price movements, with Southland and Tasman being the strongest performers, rising 7.4% and 5.6% in median prices respectively.REINZ noted that fixed mortgage rates moving higher, an unchanged official cash rate, along with household costs, job security, and global uncertainty were the key influences in the August housing market."Our members tell us they generally expect conditions to remain broadly steady over the coming months, with improving enquiry levels in some areas supporting cautious optimism," said REINZ Chief Executive Lizzy Ryley.ANZ said that the August data is consistent with its estimate that the housing market will remain soft over the coming months, and prices will end the year slightly lower than the start.

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Update: Wall Street Dips as AI Warnings Weigh on Tech Sector
US Markets

Update: Wall Street Dips as AI Warnings Weigh on Tech Sector

(Updates with market moves at the end of the day, and other changes, if any.)Wall Street's equity benchmarks fell Monday as warnings from Anthropic and OpenAI on increasing safety risks tied to artificial intelligence triggered a selloff in the technology sector.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.6% to close at 26,186.41. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% to 7,619.98, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% to 52,421.20. Most sectors ended in the red, led by tech, while communication services paced the gainers.Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI chatbot Claude maker Anthropic, called on the industry Saturday to slow the pace at which it advances AI model capabilities. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk supported Amodei's call.OpenAI's initial public offering will not take place this year, Altman separately said in a Fortune Magazine interview, citing the need for safety-related work, according to Bloomberg News.Shares of tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) were the third-worst performer on the Dow, down 3.4%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) also closed lower.US President Donald Trump sought to allay those AI safety fears, calling them a "hoax.""AI taking over the world, destroying humanity, and all other things bad, is a hoax," he said in a social media post on Monday.In an earlier post on Truth Social, Trump said that "there is a sick conspiracy going on against AI and data centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China."West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up 1.7% at $101.76 a barrel in Monday late-afternoon trade, while Brent rose 1.6% to $106.23, both trading off the day's peaks.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it destroyed an advanced US MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz, a key crude and energy chokepoint, CNBC reported.A meeting to discuss the future of the strait, scheduled for Monday with Tehran and Gulf states, has been postponed, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on X. The postponement comes following Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis' attack on Saudi Arabia last week.Trump said Monday that Iran "wants to make a deal, quickly and badly.""I will determine whether or not the USA will choose to engage," Trump said in a social media post.Treasury yields were higher, with the two-year rate rising 1.4 basis points to 4.66% and the 10-year rate up 1.2 basis points at 4.99%.The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's policy meeting, with its latest "dot plot" likely signaling another hike later this year, UBS Securities said in a note. The Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day meeting on Tuesday.Markets are currently pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining odds point to another central bank pause.In other company news, Baldwin Insurance (BWIN) has agreed to be acquired and taken private by a consortium that includes the family investment firm of Dell Technologies (DELL) Chief Executive Michael Dell, in a deal worth $7.7 billion. Baldwin shares jumped 7.9%.Spot gold lost 1.5% to $4,285.73 per troy ounce, while silver shed 2.6% to $63.48 per ounce.

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Residential Building Permits Drop, Sparking Inventory Shortage Concerns Amid Affordability Woes, Zillow Says
US Markets

Residential Building Permits Drop, Sparking Inventory Shortage Concerns Amid Affordability Woes, Zillow Says

The pace of residential building permits in the US fell further below its pre-pandemic trend line in the year ended July, triggering concerns about an intensifying house shortage amid ongoing affordability headwinds, Zillow Group (Z, ZG) said Monday.Nationally, more than 1.42 million permits were issued over the 12 months through July, down 1.7% year over year and running a record 19.4% below the trend line before the coronavirus pandemic, according to the real estate marketplace.Permitting in Austin, Texas, tumbled 25% over the past year, the biggest drop among major US markets. Permits more than doubled in San Jose, California, the report showed.The number of detached single-family homes built in 2025 decreased 2.5% year over year to roughly 817,000 units, marking a third consecutive drop, according to the report."With permitting at a post-pandemic low, the housing shortage at the root of today's affordability crisis could deepen," Zillow said.Homebuilders are completing projects more quickly and preferring smaller homes that are more affordable. This holds especially true in markets where builders had been building the most, Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng said."That's an understandable reaction to today's conditions, but the housing shortage that drove the building boom is still very much intact," Ng added. "The concern is that when conditions improve and buyers return, the thinner pipeline could mean a tighter market that drives up prices."Last week, a report by the National Association of Realtors showed that US existing home sales in August hit the lowest level since June 2025 amid persistent affordability headwinds. Separately, Zillow said home sales fell annually last month as high mortgage rates dampened buyer demand and pushed more prospective buyers into a strengthening rental market.Price: $33.17, Change: $+0.67, Percent Change: +2.06%

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