VLCC freight rates have surged to unprecedented levels, with daily earnings surging past $1 million as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and tightening vessel availability amplify the impact of subdued global crude trade, Vortexa strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Vortexa analysts said global crude departures have averaged about 44 million barrels per day over the past two and a half months, about 5 million b/d below the average for the six months before the onset of the Middle East conflict.
Though crude on the water remains historically high, it is relatively low compared with levels seen over the past year, reflecting lower liftings, longer voyage durations and a sharp increase in ship-to-ship transfers outside the Hormuz.
Vortexa said that logistical constraints and security risks around the Middle East have become a major driver of freight costs. Shuttling oil from east to west of Hormuz costs around $75 a tonne, roughly equivalent to the gap between VLCC freight rates on the two sides of the strait.
The consultancy said an STS system handling over 6 million b/d has emerged outside the strait from virtually zero before the conflict, but operations are taking significantly longer than in established locations such as the US Gulf, tying up tanker capacity and prompting some operators to explore alternatives farther afield, including Sri Lanka and Singapore.
Vessel availability has emerged as the strongest bullish factor for VLCC freight. Vortexa said that a concentration of fleet ownership following Sinokor's buying spree earlier in 2026, efforts by Middle East suppliers and trading houses to assemble fleets, and the positioning of vessels have all tightened effective supply.