Very large crude carrier fundamentals have softened significantly from the tighter conditions seen earlier this year, as active tonne-mile demand declined in August and ballast vessel availability increased, according to a Vortexa report on Monday.
The report noted that this disconnect between supply and pricing was most pronounced around the Middle East Gulf, with capacity being increasingly positioned toward the region, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2025.
Yet, despite these softening fundamentals, freight rates have continued to rise, with geopolitical risk increasingly overriding vessel availability, with this effect particularly pronounced around Hormuz, where owners are demanding additional compensation to enter and transit the volatile waterway.
By late August, freight rates on the Saudi Ras Tanura-to-Ningbo route had surged above $120 per tonne, nearly three times the $45 per tonne charged on the Mina Al Fahal-to-Ningbo route from Oman, Vortexa said.
This strength has also spilled onto the Atlantic Basin, where despite weak demand, prices remained well supported, but the report concluded by warning that the current price structure and market balance was vulnerable to improvement in security along the Hormuz.