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Treasury
Commerzbank on Overnight News
Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasury yields open higher in Asia, continue to increase with the 10-year back above 4.5%. Brent surges to US$98/barrel after U.S. strikes on Iran. Asian equity indexes and U.S. futures are down. The euro (EUR) drops below US$1.159.Fed: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is prepared to raise rates if inflation doesn't ease as expected. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari says inflation fight takes priority and unanchored expectations could require stronger policy action. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warns of inflation from energy price increases.U.S.: Treasury Secretary Bessent believes prices are "transitory;" expects oil to be lower than pre-conflict levels when it ends.Iran war: U.S. carries out strikes against Iranian military site. President Donald Trump says "we're not satisfied with Iran deal," warning that if negotiations fail U.S. may "finish the job."==EUROPE:ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Philip Lane warns that inflation could remain elevated even after Iran conflict ends.EU broadens import quotas and tariffs against China. Plans a strategy to reduce reliance on U.S. tech companies.
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Treasury
Surge In Population Between 2022 and 2024 Has Led To Recent Rise In Canadian Youth Unemployment, says BMO
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent's speech on Tuesday fretted about the rise in the country's youth unemployment, says Bank of Montreal (BMO).Vincent cited a variety of factors, including structural issues like Artificial Intelligence and United States tariffs -- which, he suggested the BoC couldn't do much to address withmonetary policy, noted the bank.But Vincent also mentioned: "Between 2022 and 2024, there was a large influx of young people from abroad. This intensified competition in Canada for lower-skill and entry-level jobs." That seems to be the dominant factor at work here.The youth jobless rate was actually pressing all-time lows of around 9% in 2022, until the surge in population took hold, noted BMO.The number of people aged 15-24 increased by almost 12% in a two-year period, more than triple the growth rate seen at any time for that group in the past 50 years. Meantime, the population of those aged 45 or over saw steady growth through that episode, noted the bank.
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Treasury
SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary
Societe Generale in its early Thursday economic news summary pointed out:Brent, bond yields rebound up after renewed United States strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's IRGC targets U.S. airbase. President Trump dismisses pressure from the mid-term elections to strike a deal. U.S. Treasury 2s/10s flips from bull to bear flattening, Germany's Bund reclaims 3.0%, resistance 3.03%.Federal Reserve's Cook: I am prepared to raise rates if the expected disinflation doesn't appear in timely manner. Fed's Jefferson: monetary policy well positioned to respond to economic developments based on incoming data, the evolving outlook and balance of risks.Bank of Korea hawkish hold, keeps key rate at 2.50%. Governor Shin: need for a rate hike at the appropriate time. USD/KRW +0.2% at 1,503.Day ahead: U.S. PCE, SocGen forecasts headline 0.6% month over month (4.0% year over year), core 0.3% month over month (3.3% year over year). Weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, Q1 gross domestic product second read. Fed speakers Williams, Musalem, Barkin. European Central Bank's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel. ECB accounts of the April meeting. Italy benchmark auction. Bank of England's Breeden. South Africa's SARB forecast to raise rates by 25bps.Nikkei -0.5%, EUR 10-year IRS +2bps at 3.04%, Brent crude +2.8% at US$97.1/barrel, Gold -1.4% at US$4,391/oz.
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