The US could produce enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet roughly two-thirds of its 2030 federal target, but getting to the 3 billion-gallon goal may be unlikely without additional industry and policy support, according to a new Washington State University-led study.
The study offers a detailed look at the nation's SAF industry.
The study found that the most optimistic scenario projects domestic SAF production could reach about 2.1 billion gallons annually by 2030, though substantially lower production levels may be realized depending on market conditions, project delays, and policy support.
"We wanted to take a very pragmatic look at where we really are," said Kristin Brandt, an adjoint faculty member in the Composite and Materials and Engineering Center in WSU's Voiland College of Engineering and Architecture and lead author on the study.
"There are people saying this industry is going to explode overnight and others saying nothing will happen at all. The reality is somewhere in between," Brandt added.
Sustainable aviation fuel has emerged as one of the aviation industry's leading near-term strategies for reducing carbon emissions because it can already be blended with conventional jet fuel and used in existing aircraft and airport infrastructure.
One of the study's major findings is what researchers describe as the gap between announcements and reality.
"Announcements are not the same thing as fuel," Kristin Brand, lead author of the WSU study, said. "People announce giant facilities with aggressive timelines all the time, but historically many projects get delayed, scaled back, or never move forward."
The study also found that hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids will likely dominate US SAF production through 2030. These fuels are largely made from fats, oils, and greases such as used cooking oil and animal fats.
"There's actually a global shortage of used cooking oil," Brandt said. "It sounds ridiculous, but it's true."